5 Mariners most likely to be traded before Opening Day 2021

Number 4: Mitch Haniger

This will depend on Haniger’s health and productivity if there is a 2020 season. But if Haniger makes it back to 100% this season and can play in even 50 games with numbers on par to his 2018 version, teams will be interested.

With Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, and Braden Bishop in the fold, Haniger could very well get squeezed out, especially if Seattle finally gets an offer they like for Haniger. But that depends on his medicals and performance this year, so who knows?

It is within the realm of possibility that Haniger either can’t get back to 100% or prove himself this season and if that were the case, the Mariners would likely bring him back for 2021. It’s also possible that Haniger does get back to his 2018 self, the Mariners shop him this winter and don’t find a price they like and bring him back.

Of all the players on the current (projected) roster, Haniger carries the most difficult to pinpoint the future with Seattle. The club loves him and has repeatedly said they want him to be a major piece of the transition. We also know they have engaged in trade discussions each of the past 2 winters.

For all we know, Haniger will sign an extension tomorrow and we will have to adapt our outfield projections. Or maybe he plays out the string with the Mariners and leaves via free agency? There are a lot of different directions the tenure of Haniger in Seattle can go. But right now, the most likely course is that he is traded, so he finds his way into the Top 5 of our list.

Number 3: Tom Murphy

Believe it or not, Tom Murphy is one of the best trades in Mariners’ history. Or at least, it has the potential to be. After Seattle got Murphy off the scrap heap in early April of 2019, Murphy went on to post a 3.2 fWAR in just 76 games, clubbing 18 home runs and posting a 126 wRC+.

Now, you won’t find many who believe Murphy can replicate that success again. But Murphy also carries an above-average defensive grade and is popular amongst the pitchers in Seattle. There is no way that a catcher with Murphy’s power and defensive prowess won’t carry value into a market that desperately needs starting catchers that provide any offensive upside.

Seattle was even able to trade Mike Zunino, a similar profile to Murphy, 2 winters ago for Mallex Smith and Jake Fraley. With Cal Raleigh on the way and the emergence of Austin Nola as a viable backup, the Mariners could be looking to clear the decks for Raleigh to take over sooner than later.

Seattle could easily decide to keep Murphy around for a bit. He is club controlled until after the 2023 season and handing a rookie catcher the reins his first go around the league may not be the smartest idea.

But there also exists the possibility that Seattle gets an offer so good, they can’t say no. If Murphy can come close to repeating his 2019 season, the Mariners may not have a choice but to cash in on one of the best catchers in all of baseball.

Number 2: Austin Adams

If Tom Murphy was one of Dipoto’s greatest trades, then so too is his acquisition of Austin Adams. Acquired from the Nationals for Nick Wells, Adams established himself as one of the best swing-and-miss relievers in the American League.

The Mariners simply allowed Adams to unleash his best weapon, a wipeout slider, more often than Washington, and the result came immediately. Adams averaged more than 1.5 strikeouts per inning with Seattle while cutting his walk rate in the process.

Adams’ slider makes him at least a back-end reliever and if he can harness the fastball and command it better with its current velocity (95 MPH average) Adams could be a dominant closer. While he works his way back from a torn ACL he suffered in September, Dipoto said that he believes Adams could be back by the time MLB resumes play this season.

Adams has 5-years of service time remaining, meaning he won’t make anything more than league minimum for at least 2 more seasons and won’t start to see his salary kick up until after the 2022 season.

Relievers are always hot commodities in the middle of the season, especially ones who can miss bats at elite levels. Adams has a chance to be this year’s Nick Anderson, for whom the Rays traded top prospect, Jesus Sanchez.

If the Mariners can cash in on Adams for a similar price, they’d be fools not to. Adams doesn’t need to be traded this summer or this winter thanks to his club control years. Seattle can sit and wait for the right offer and if they don’t get it, they can simply try again next summer.

Number 1: Mallex Smith

It is hard to imagine a worse first year with a new club than Mallex Smith had with the Mariners in 2019. He got hurt in the off-season, missed all of spring training, struggled both at the plate and in the field early, got demoted, came back up, and was just okay upon his return. That’s tough.

But despite all of that, Smith did lead the AL in stolen bases and if you buy into the metrics, he was one of the best defensive outfielders in all of baseball. I think it is fair to call 2019 a bit of an outlier for Mallex Smith. It may also be fair to call his 2018 an outlier as well, just in the opposite direction.

The real Mallex Smith is probably somewhere in the middle and if the Mariners see it, Smith will be an interesting trade chip. The plus speed and good defense in centerfield will make him an interesting bench piece for a contender. But the 3-years of club control open up his market to more than just contenders and that market gets even bigger if he can get back to a .270/.330/.370 player.

We talked about the logjam in the outfield during the Haniger discussion and that all applies in this discussion as well. But Haniger’s upside is as a perennial All-Star and Smith just doesn’t carry that. But a cheap, 27-year-old speed demon with above-average defense will carry value. Just how much value depends on how his 2020 season goes.

There you have it. The 5 players most likely to be dealt before Opening day 2021. Now, guys like Carl Edwards Jr. and Yoshihisa Hirano are obvious candidates as well. But they were so obvious we decided to skip them to talk about some of the less obvious candidates. Who do you think is the most likely Mariner to be traded in the next 11 months?