Projecting the 2023 Mariners lineup with player comps

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Yes, we are still waiting for the Seattle Mariners and the rest of MLB to start playing again. But this hasn’t stopped us from thinking about the future.

The Seattle Mariners have one of the best farm systems in baseball. While that is all well and good, the only thing that matters is how good the players in the system will be at the big league level, and how quickly they’ll reach their plateau. Which brings us to a question: if these players do hit their projected level, what could that team look like?

Well, instead of trying to paint a picture using numbers and a projection analysis, maybe we should simplify things. So instead, let’s lay out a potential starting lineup for Opening Day 3 years from now but use current MLB players as stand-ins to represent where Seattle could be at that time.

These comparisons to current big leaguers are nothing more than educated guesses. Like any group of young players, the spectrum for final results will be vast. Some will outperform their projections, some will underperform. Some will be “as expected” while others will come in just above or just below what we expected.

But for our purposes today, we are focused just on what we think is the 75% ceiling for these players. So we aren’t looking for what they can do if everything goes well, but assuming they beat their 50% potential comps.

If you’re confused, I can’t blame you. It may be better to just jump in and start going so you’ll see exactly what I am talking about. But with that in mind, let’s go over some quick ground rules. First, I won’t be projecting a free agency going forward. We can’t fathom who might sign in the winter of 2020, let alone 2023. No trades either. We can only use players who currently are club control through 2023.

Now, let’s go ahead and just get started. But one final note before we begin: of course this won’t be accurate. That isn’t the point. The point is to have fun and slap some comps on current Mariners youngsters to give us a better idea of what we may be looking at. Now, we can officially get started.

The 2023 Starting Infield

SURPRISE, AZ – NOVEMBER 03: AFL West All-Star, Evan White #15 of the Seattle Mariners bats during the Arizona Fall League All-Star Game at Surprise Stadium on November 3, 2018, in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Hey, so if you’re “that guy” who gets upset that we think of catchers as infielders… I guess just get over it? I don’t know how to help you with that. For our purposes today, we will be talking about the 4 infield positions and the catching duo for your 2023 Mariners and giving you our projected comparison for each. Let’s get started.

Starting Catcher: Cal Raleigh

This could change as soon as June if the Mariners nab any of the top catchers in the draft class, but based on what we know now, Cal Raleigh is the easy answer. The switch-hitting Raleigh has big-time MLB power and has steadily improved defensively behind the plate where he should be at least fringe-average.

There aren’t a lot of backstops that offer you at least average offensive and defensive value and Raleigh appears to be well on his way to doing that. Pitchers love throwing to Raleigh and he also earns marks as a natural leader.

In all honesty, his profile will remind many of Red Sox legend Jason Varitek. Both are switch-hitters with good power for the position and earn high praise as great leaders of their ballclub. As for a modern-day comp, that is a little harder to come by. I would put Willson Contreras at the high-end, with Wilson Ramos at the low-end. Ultimately, I think a 2019 Carson Kelly season is what we are looking at for Raleigh.

Backup Catcher: Carter Binns

There are a lot of possibilities here. Both Tom Murphy and Austin Nola will both still have club control here and could easily be splitting the job with Raleigh on Opening Day 2023. But Murphy will likely be appealing trade bait and Nola, if he is still around, will likely fill a utility role similar to what he did in 2019.

Binns isn’t likely going to hit for average, but it isn’t a lost cause and he certainly has good pop. But he is already an above-average defender, making him a good fit with Raleigh. Some will read the profile and think Mike Zunino, but I see Binns as a decent candidate to turn into 2019’s Jorge Alfaro.

First Base: Evan White

Many of us are hoping that the most optimistic of evaluators are correct when they say White has the potential to be Paul Goldschmidt, but I just can’t see that. I also don’t think there is much of a chance that he isn’t a solid, everyday first baseman.

For our comparison, we are going to use 2015, Eric Hosmer. That season, Hosmer slashed .297/.363/.459 with 18 home runs and won the Gold Glove. These are all quite realistic for White, who will be entering his 4th season in 2023. The athletic, batting average and on-base, truly great defense from first base profile is hard to come by, so our options are limited. If you are only concerned about offensive comps, I think A.J. Pollock‘s 162 game averages are a good comparison if you swap out some steals for a bit more power.

Second Base: Shed Long

PEORIA, ARIZONA – MARCH 05: Shed Long Jr #4 of the Seattle Mariners catches a ball during warm-up prior to a Cactus League spring training baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Peoria Stadium on March 05, 2020, in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images) /

This is where our own Ty Gonzalez is screaming, “he’s Ozzie Albies” and while I don’t think it’s impossible to project that, it does seem quite optimistic. But unlike the first few names on our list, Long has an MLB track record to look at.

What Mariners fans saw from him last year was encouraging. He is a good athlete with above-average raw power and speed, has a lot of personality and can handle multiple positions pretty well.

So while I don’t think Albies is likely, I think a solid comparison is Marwin Gonzalez (minus the ability to handle shortstop). Gonzalez is a career .264/.319/.418 hitter, averaging 16 home runs and 7 steals per 162 games played. While that may not be exciting, in the 6 seasons where Gonzalez has played in 100 or more games, he has posted a 13.1 bWAR. There is nothing wrong with being a solid, everyday player with upside and Long fits that mold.

Third Base: Noelvi Marte

Now we reach the most interesting position on the diamond, at least to me. Kyle Seager‘s contract will expire after 2022 and there isn’t another obvious candidate in the system. Joe Rizzo and Austin Shenton are possible, as is Shed Long. But we can’t project free agent or trade acquisitions per our rules so we have to work with what we have.

2023 may be a bit optimistic on when Marte could be big-league ready, especially if Marte is unable to play in 2020. But there is a chance and I believe Marte is exactly the type of player who can meet optimistic timelines.

As for comparisons, this is the one I’m taking my biggest stab at. Marte currently has plus speed and good raw power and that combination isn’t rampant in MLB right now. Marte has also never played third base, so we are simply guessing at his defensive value.

If everything went right, Marte could post very similar numbers to what Cleveland’s third baseman, Jose Ramirez, did in 2019. But that is a lofty goal for a rookie. While his game will more closely resemble Ramirez’s eventually, I think a 2019 Scott Kingery is a fair comparison here.

Kingery hit .258/.315/.474 with 19 home runs and 15 steals (though Marte has the speed to steal 40). Not bad for a rookie.

Shortstop: J.P. Crawford

PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 18: J.P. Crawford #3 of the Seattle Mariners in action during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on September 18, 2019, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) /

It’s not exciting, but J.P. Crawford is still under contract in 2023 and there isn’t much else in the minors at this time. Don’t get me wrong, Crawford is an above-average shortstop who runs the bases well, has a good eye at the plate, and still has some pop left to unleash in that bat.

There is nothing wrong with being an average everyday shortstop. In fact, most teams can’t even get that at the position. It’s not sexy, but having a 2019 Willy Adames in your lineup is nothing to be ashamed of.

Starting infield (comps)

C: 2019 Carson Kelly, Jorge Alfaro
1B: 2015 Eric Hosmer
2B: Marwin Gonzalez
3B: 2019 Scott Kingery
SS: 2019 Willy Adames

The 2023 Outfield (and DH)

The current depth of the Seattle Mariners outfield makes this group the most difficult to project. Whenever GM Jerry Dipoto decides to make his moves for veterans, the trade pieces for this deal will likely come out of the plethora of talent he as collected on the mound and in the outfield. That being said, we know at least 2 of the names who will appear on this list, so let’s get started.

Left Field: Jarred Kelenic

The beauty of the current Mariners’ outfield prospects is that they are pretty interchangeable, at least in terms of defensive alignment. Kelenic can easily and very well be the centerfielder. But Kelenic will eventually move to a corner, if for no other reason than to try and keep him healthy with an easier defensive position.

The beauty of Kelenic’s game is that it is almost impossible for me to see him being any worse than Boston Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi. It also isn’t difficult for me to see Kelenic post a few 2019 Austin Meadows like seasons. And in 2023, Kelenic is, at least, entering his second full season.

But we are looking for a somewhere in between his 50th percentile and his 95th percentile. So in an effort to find that happy medium, we are going to slap a 2019 Michael Conforto comparison on the 2023 version of Jarred Kelenic. Conforto hit .257/.363/.494 with 33 home runs, a 3.7 fWAR. But Kelenic is going to be better defensively, so a 4 win season seems like a happy compromise.

Centerfield: Jake Fraley

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 27: Jake Fraley #8 of the Seattle Mariners bats against the Chicago White Sox on February 27, 2020, at Camelback Ranch in Glendale Arizona. (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images) /

Honestly, just pick your horse. Braden Bishop is a good possibility. Jarred Kelenic may be the best bet. Noelvi Marte could fit here as well. But we are going to go with a better bat. Bishop has the better glove and if you want to imagine this team with Bishop in center, I would use Kevin Pillar as the comparison.

But Fraley has a high upside at the plate and is no slouch defensively either. We need to find an above-average defender with good pop and a threat to steal quite a few bases. I think we have our guy: 2016 Lorenzo Cain.

They’ll go about things differently, but in 2016 when Cain was with the Royals, he slashed .287/.339/.408 with 9 home runs and 14 steals, as well as the good defense. That was good enough for a 2.2 fWAR, which feels about right for the Fraley we have watched so far.

Right Field: Julio Rodriguez

This one seems to be a certainty right? Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kellenic will share the same outfield, possibly as early as 2021. The only question is how good each will be by the time opening day of 2023 rolls around.

Julio Rodriguez has a wide range of possible outcomes. A Bryce Harper level slash line is not out of the question. But that may be the high-end of things. Although, some scouts have compared the young outfielder to the young Miguel Cabrera. Obviously, those represent incredible players but we aren’t looking at best case scenarios.

So where are we going to settle on our comps? Well, 2019 Trey Mancini is a tempting comparison, but Rodriguez is a better runner and defender. So ultimately, let’s settle on Justin Upton. But not 2019 Upton. Instead, let’s settle on 2014 Justin Upton. That season, Upton slashed .270/.341/.491 with 29 home runs, 34 doubles, 8 steals, and a 3.1 bWAR. Not too bad.

DH- Kyle Lewis

BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 21: Kyle Lewis #30 of the Seattle Mariners reacts after striking out against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 21, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) /

The DH role will be split amongst the entire team. I have a hard time imagining Jerry Dipoto having a “full-time” DH by 2023. But for our purposes here, let’s slide Kyle Lewis into this slot so we can talk about him. Lewis posses the big-time power you want in your lineup and he displayed that in his big league debut last September.

He also displayed some serious holes in his game, namely his ability to make consistent contact. Lewis struck out 38.7% of his at-bats in 2019 while posting a terrible 4.0% walk rate. For Lewis to be an everyday contributor, he has to cut down on strikeouts and improve his on-base skill. By this time, Lewis should have at least 2 full seasons under his belt, making 2023 a do or die season for him.

Let’s project that Lewis can get the walk rate closer to 7% and get the K% down to around 33%. What type of player are we looking at? Well, interestingly enough, Domingo Santana is a pretty good fit, at least offensively. Mariners fans should remember how good Santana was last season before he got hurt. And over the course of his career, Santana has a .259/.343/.453 with 25 home runs and 10 steals.

Lewis will be a better defender than Santana, but he won’t be a gold glove caliber defender. Lewis will be an interesting player to watch and could be a gamechanger if he makes the most of his upside.

Wrap up

SEATTLE- WA, – APRIL 9: T-Mobile Park is lit up in blue to honor essential workers during the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on April 09, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. Landmarks and buildings across the nation are displaying blue lights to show support for health care workers and first responders on the front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

So our starting lineup for the 2023 Mariners is now set. Here are the comps we landed on at each position:

Catcher- Carson Kelly (Raleigh) Jorge Alfaro (Binns)
First Base- 2015 Eric Hosmer (White)
Second base- Marwin Gonzalez (Long)
Third base- Scott Kingery (Marte)
Shortstop- 2019 Willy Adames (Crawford)
Leftfield- Michael Conforto (Kelenic)
Centerfield- 2016 Lorenzo Cain (Fraley)
Rightfield- Justin Upton (Rodriguez)
DH- Domingo Santana (Lewis)

Overall, that is a pretty strong lineup but one that will require outside additions to be a true World Series contenders. But if a few players jump reach their absolute ceilings, they could be an elite offensive ball club.

Next time, we will project the rest of the 2023 bench and the starting rotation with their comparisons. It should be a lot of fun and interesting to see exactly what these players could actually do.

Next. Could Mariners extend Logan Gilbert. dark

A big shout out is owed to Jason Churchill of Hero Sports, Prospect Insider, and the Baseball Things Podcast (highly reccomended) for this concept.

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