Seattle Mariners Free Agency Big Board: Who will they target?

4. Jake Odorizzi, RHP Minnesota

Jake Odorizzi has been a favorite of this writer for a while. But after a “breakout” 2019 that forced the Twins to slap a qualifying offer on him, Odorizzi accepted their 1-year contract offer and will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season.

Odorizzi is one of the safest starting pitchers in the big leagues and is a good bet for 160 innings and a sub-4 FIP. In fact, with the exception of a poor 2017, Odorizzi has never posted a FIP higher than 4.32 in his 6 full-seasons. Odorizzi has made 28 or more starts in each of those 6 seasons, making him one of the most durable starters around.

In addition to the durability and reliability, Odorizzi has a career 8.6 K/9 with a decent 3.11 BB/9 and a 13.7 fWAR in 6 years. Odorizzi is a flyball heavy pitcher, but amazingly, doesn’t give up many home runs. In each of his past two seasons, Odorizzi has posted a sub-9% HR/FB ratio.

Odorizzi isn’t an ace but is a solid #3 starter with #2 upside. While the Mariners have quite a few interesting arms, the simple fact remains that 3 of these arms (Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, and Justin Dunn) have not yet proven they are MLB starters, while Logan Gilbert and George Kirby have yet to make their debut.

If the team hopes to be competitive in 2021, they’ll need probability in their rotation. Adding an arm should be their top priority this winter, though that could change if 2 of the 3 unproven MLB arms reach their ceilings.

If Odorizzi repeats his 4.7 fWAR of 2019 (162 game pace), he could be in line for a Zack Wheeler type of deal. If not, he’ll likely settle in at a Jeff Samardjiza type of contract. Whether Seattle is willing to pay that to a player who will be entering his age-31 season would be anybody’s guess. But if they do, they’ll have acquired a safe bet to slide into the middle of most teams rotations.

3. Marcus Stroman, RHP New York Mets

You may start to notice a trend here in our conversation: the Seattle Mariners should be looking heavily into the starting pitcher market this winter. Marcus Stroman would be a solid addition to the middle of the Mariners rotation and provide solid #3 production.

Stroman is similar to Odorizzi, in that both are a decent bet to give you 160+ innings of above-average production. In 3 of his past 4 seasons, Stroman has thrown at least 184 innings and he has never posted a FIP higher than 3.91. Stroman’s 15.8 fWAR in 4 full seasons is an impressive feat and is sure to make the athletic righty a lot of money.

Unlike Odorizzi, Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher. From 2016-2018, Stroman posted groundball rates higher than 60%. That took a dip to a career-low in 2019, all the way down to 53.7%.

Stroman doesn’t rack up the strikeouts like Odorizzi but does a better job at managing the strike zone, posting a 2.59 BB/9. Stroman turns 29-years-old in May, meaning he’ll enter free agency entering his age-30 season.

Stroman doesn’t miss bats, which will hurt his value in free agency, but thanks to his athleticism, safety, age, and production, Stroman won’t be cheap for any interested party. But a 5-year deal, worth around $100 million is probably a good starting point from Stroman’s camp.

There is a debate to be had as to who is the better fit for the Mariners, Jake Odorizzi or Marcus Stroman? But both make a lot of sense for a Seattle team looking to make some noise in the playoff race in 2021.

2. Trevor Bauer, RHP Cinncinatti

This may come as a surprise to many Mariners fans. It has been a running joke for so long, we almost look at it as an inevitability. How many times have we used the phrase, ” future Mariner Trevor Bauer…”? It has been said quite a bit. And now, he’ll be a free agent this winter and we don’t think he’s their top target? Well, yes and no.

Allow me to explain. Would Bauer be a good addition to the rotation? Yes. Does Bauer have a relationship with several Mariners players, including Yusei Kikuchi? Yes. Isn’t Bauer one of the most analytically driven players in the world, a factor the Mariners seems to pursue in players? Yes, yes, and yes. So what gives?

Well, there are a few things about Bauer that may not make him the best fit for the Mariners. First and most importantly, Bauer is coming off a bad season in 2019. Well, relatively speaking. Bauer saw his ERA jump 2 full runs in 2019 and his FIP jumped 1.9 runs as well. Bauer’s groundball rate dropped 7% and his HR/FB rate jumped 2.5 times above his 2018 numbers.

Bauer also saw his strikeouts go down slightly and his walks go up slightly and both his fastball and slider went from good to mediocre in a 1-year span. The question teams will have to ask is whether 2018 is the outlier. And if it is, Bauer is a lot closer to a #3 than he is a #1. 2020 was going to be a big season for the 29-year-old to regain some of his value back, but thanks to the delay of the season, he won’t get that same opportunity.

The other issue surrounding Bauer is his declaration that he will only be signing 1-year deals once he becomes a free agent. I applaud the bold strategy, but if this is true, how much sense does it make for the Mariners to sign him for 2021, a year where they may not be ready to truly compete, instead of waiting for one off-season and signing him in 2022, when their playoff odds should greatly improve?

Sure, Bauer could like the situation and could conceivably sign concurrent 1-year deals, but it is still going to be a bit of an issue for the team. I think signing Bauer to a 1-year deal is fine, but it would almost certainly require spending more to try and make 2021 a playoff season. Bauer is still a good pitcher and is a fun character to have around.

If he does sign with the Mariners, I’d be happy. But those nagging thoughts laid out would still be in the back of your mind. But hey, we have him as the #2 target on our list, so clearly, we like him quite a lot.

1. James Paxton, LHP New York Yankees

If you don’t want James “Big Maple” Paxton back in a Mariners uniform, you can log out right now. But aside from the obvious fan affection for James Paxton, a reunion actually makes quite a bit of sense. And yes, familiarity with Paxton is one of the reasons why.

You know Paxton works in your clubhouse. You know he works with your media. And you know what you’ll get every time he takes the mound. Now, do you know how often he’ll take the mound? Actually, you do but you can’t say when he’ll make those starts.

Injuries are always going to be a concern with Paxton. It is a part of his reputation. Paxton is a great pitcher who you’ll have to figure out how to survive without for 4-6 weeks every season. But when you do get a healthy Paxton, you get a 4-5 WAR starting pitcher, a true #2.

Paxton was quite good in his first season with Yankees, making 29 starts and posting an 11.11 K/9 and a 3.86 FIP in 150 innings. We did see his BB/9 jump by nearly a full walk and his solid FIP was actually the highest it had been since 2015.

But James Paxton still has nasty, swing and miss stuff led by his mid-to-upper-90s fastball and wicked slider/cutter to go along with a good curveball as well.

Paxton would likely slot in at the top of the 2021 rotation and has the goods to go toe-to-toe with most teams ace on any given night. Yes, the injury concerns are real and they have to be dealt with. But with starters like Marco Gonzales to soak up innings and a deep farm system capable of spitting out replacement level arms or better, the Mariners are in a decent position to weather that storm.

Because of the injuries and the age (32 entering free agency) Paxton could actually be a tremendous bargain that is winter and could conceivably sign for a lower AAV than Odorizzi, Stroman, and Bauer.

Offering Paxton a 4-year deal worth $110+ million protects the team, as even if Paxton gives you just 140 innings, he will provide that value and then some. And if by chance he ever gets to 180+ innings, you’ll likely have a true #1 starter at good #3 money.

Paxton is such a good fit and Seattle represents the closest MLB team to his home in British Columbia, a fact that Paxton himself as listed as a huge selling point. GM Jerry Dipoto even said publicly that when he told Paxton about the trade to New York, he told the lefty to keep Seattle in mind in 2-years.

Obviously, a lot can change in two years. But if that sentiment remains on both sides, there is absolutely the potential for a win-win situation for the team and the player. And, of course, a big win for the fans as well.