Predicting the Mariners Opening Day 26-man roster (pitching)

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The Seattle Mariners will play a baseball game on Saturday and are less than 5 weeks away from kicking off their 2020 regular season. But we wonder, who will make the trip to Seattle?

While many teams will face open competitions at several positions, the Mariners aren’t really in that spot this spring. It seems unusual that a rebuilding team like Seattle would have a fairly set in stone 26-man roster, but the team has made its preferences known, so we have a good idea of who will make the trip to Seattle for the Opener against the Texas Rangers on March 26th.

Of course, there is always room for surprises, and lord knows that injuries will come this spring. And while we have a good idea of what the starting lineups will look like, there are a few spots that will have one or two contenders vying for the spots.

So, let’s go ahead and layout our projected Opening Day pitching staff. There are a handful of locks, but a muddied bullpen makes for an interesting discussion. But let’s start with the arms we know are making the teams.

Rotation Locks: Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield

The Mariners are not going to DFA Marco Gonzales, who has posted back-to-back 3 fWAR seasons and just signed a 4-year extension a few weeks ago. The only way he’s not making a trip to Seattle and taking the ball against Texas on Opening Day is if he gets hurt.

Yusei Kikuchi is coming off a bad season that has made many Mariners fans sour on the young lefty. But Seattle has another $28 million invested in him and the raw stuff suggest he can be a solid #3 starter. He flashed enough last year and has already tweaked his mechanics. There is no shot Kikuchi isn’t on the Opening Day roster.

Sheffield is the most interesting one to land on the “lock list”. I almost put him in the next category, but we have heard absolutely nothing to suggest he isn’t written in ink on the Mariners depth chart. This is the right move. Sheffield got a nice cup of coffee last season and is ready to test his stuff and stamina against the best in the world.

Rotation Probables: Taijuan Walker and Kendall Graveman

PEORIA, AZ – FEBRUARY 20: Kendall Graveman #49 of the Seattle Mariners poses during the Seattle Mariners Photo Day on February 20, 2020 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images) /

Both of these players are highly likely to factor into the Opening Day rotation. While neither is a guarantee to do so, both are currently penciled into the rotation. The key for both players will be health.

Taijuan Walker missed most of 2018 and 2019, dealing with Tommy John Surgery and a shoulder capsule injury. Walker says he is 100% and if the velocity and command are both back to normal, he would be a lock.

Kendall Graveman missed most of 2019, pitching just 6 innings in the minor leagues as well as most of the 2018 season, when he was only able to log 34 innings for the Oakland A’s. Graveman only has one season under his belt in which he has thrown enough innings to qualify for an ERA title, way back in 2016.

Both Walker and Graveman need to show they are healthy. If they do, expect both to make the rotation, regardless of what the results look like.

In the Mix: Nick Margevicius, Wei-Yin Chen, Justin Dunn

All 3 arms likely need an injury to stand much of a chance. Dunn and Margevicius are likely headed down to AA Arkansas to begin 2020 and will be amongst the first called up if an emergency should arise.

Chen signed a minor league deal so he’ll have to show something this spring if he wants to stick around. He did pitch out of the bullpen for Miami last year, so Seattle could stash him there if they think he is too valuable to let go.

Other names who are highly unlikely to make the team include Logan Gilbert, Ljay Newsome, and Anthony Misiewicz.

Bullpen Locks: Yoshihisa Hirano, Carl Edwards Jr., Sam Tuivailala, Brandon Brennan

PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 26: Yoshihisa Hirano #66 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a pitch in the ninth inning of the MLB game against the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field on August 26, 2018, in Phoenix, Arizona. All players across MLB wear nicknames on their backs as well as colorful, non-traditional uniforms featuring alternate designs inspired by youth-league uniforms during Players Weekend. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

We feel pretty confident that these 4 will make up half of the Mariners Opening Day bullpen. Hirano and Edwards Jr. both got MLB deals as free agents and are expected to handle high-leverage situations and help close out games for Seattle. They will likely handle most of the 8th and 9th inning stuff for Scott Servais early in 2020.

Tuivailala and Brennan both flashed high-leverage ability in 2019. Tuivailala was the most consistent bullpen arm for Servais last season and Brennan’s 95 MPH sinker and excellent changeup give him a chance to break out this season.

These 4 arms at least provide some relative floor for Servais and all possess the ability to close out games or wriggle off the hook of a bad situation.

Probable Bullpen Arms: Matt Magill and Taylor Guilbeau

Magill was actually quite good for the Mariners last season and has a good chance to make the trip to Seattle. He actually served as the closer for a stretch and showed good ability, posting an 11.37 K/9 and a 3.79 FIP. Magill doesn’t have any remaining options, so if he’s not on the club or on the IL, he will need to clear waivers before he can be sent down.

Guilbeau, whom the Mariners acquired for Roenis Elias last summer, appeared in 17 games for Seattle and did a decent job in his first go-around with the big club. Seattle hasn’t added any lefties on MLB deals, but Guilbeau does have some competition for the spot.

In the Mix: Erik Swanson, Dan Altavilla, Yohan Ramirez, Nestor Cortes

SEATTLE, WA – JULY 25: Erik Swanson #50 of the Seattle Mariners delivers in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at T-Mobile Park on July 25, 2019, in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /

All of these arms are interesting and have a shot to win a job straight up. Altavilla may be the most recognizable name and may have the best stuff of anybody on this list. But he hasn’t been able to consistently throw strikes, rendering his great stuff largely irrelevant. This is a make or break camp for Altavilla, who is out of options.

Erik Swanson flashed some last season and made a handful of starts for Seattle and appeared out of the pen in 19 games. The Mariners seem to have decided that Swanson is a reliever and are letting him focus on that this spring. Swanson was a better reliever than a starter and has the flexibility to fill a number of roles for Seattle. However, he also has 2 options left, so a trip to Tacoma isn’t out of the questions.

Cortes will battle for a role this spring. He has started and relieved games in his career and carved out a niche in the powerful Yankees bullpen last season. Cortes is an “everything and the kitchen sink” type of arm that will throw from multiple arm angles and hurl all kinds of junk towards home. He does a nice job of missing bats considering his stuff. He has two options left.

Yohan Ramirez, the Mariners Rule 5 Draft selection, has a big fastball and a useable slider but no idea where either pitch is going. He faces an uphill battle but will need to make the team or be sent back to Houston.

Longshots: Sam Delaplane, Jack Anderson, Aaron Fletcher, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, Wei-Yin Chen, Gerson Bautista

Hey, just pick any arm in the system and put them here. Well not exactly, but on a rebuilding team like Seattle, anybody can win that final spot on the roster. All the names listed above, and several more throughout the system, would need a few breaks to go their way to make the roster, but all have MLB stuff right now.

Next. 3 Darkhorse Contributors in 2020. dark

But there you have it, all the guys with a reasonable chance to make the Opening Day Roster… at least right now. Players can be added, some could be traded, and others will get hurt. But as of today, these guys represent the best guess we can levy at this point. For a more definitive answer, here is our projected Opening Day Pitching Staff:

Marco Gonzales
Yusei Kikuchi
Justus Sheffield
Kendall Graveman
Taijuan Walker
Yoshi Hirano
Carl Edwards Jr.
Sam Tuivailala
Brandon Brennan
Matt Magill
Taylor Guilbeau
Erik Swanson
Dan Altavilla

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