Grading Seattle Mariners Off-Season Moves… So Far

Trade #1: Mariners acquire Nestor Cortes Jr. from NYY for Int. Bonus Money

The Mariners were able to take advantage of the Yankees 40-man roster crunch by acquiring Nestor Cortes Jr. for what basically amounts to the money you’d find in your couch cushions, relatively speaking.

At such a low cost (roughly $28,000 in int slot money) there was absolutely no downside to acquiring the lefty and taking a chance on him this spring. Unfortunately, there isn’t much upside to the move either. Still, Cortes was able to carve out a role in the talented Yankees pen and that is something.

Cortes appeared in 33 games for the Yankees in 2019 and covered 66.2 innings with 69 strikeouts. But Cortes was bitten by the home run ball, allowing a whopping 16 in his 66 innings, posting a 5.57 FIP and a 1.55 WHIP as well.

Cortes can pitch to both lefties and righties, cover multiple innings, and throw from multiple arm angles, making him a versatile piece for a bullpen that may need to cover a lot of innings. The stuff is fringe-average, so the command will be key for Cortes if he wants to stick around the big leagues for a while.

The low cost to acquire and the relatively known floor of Cortes gives his acquisition grade a relatively high floor too. The idea isn’t a bad one and the process is sound, so I can’t complain too much.

Final Grade: C+

Trade 2: Mariners trade Omar Narvaez to MIL for Adam Hill and Competitive Balance Round B Draft Pick

In what is probably the most significant move of the off-season to date, the Mariners traded their 2019 Opening Day catcher to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Adam Hill, an RHP, and a competitive balance round B draft selection, which currently sits as the 67 overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft.

Omar Narvaez was fantastic at the plate for Seattle in 2019 but struggled behind it. With the emergence of Tom Murphy and Austin Nola, Dipoto chose to take the defensive safety of Tom Murphy to help develop his young pitching staff over Narvaez, who reportedly generated good buzz on the trade market.

Many Mariners fans were unhappy with the return for Narvaez. And while that is understandable, it isn’t well thought out. Hill, a 6’6″, 225 lbs right-handed pitcher was a 4th round pick of Mets in 2018 out of the University of South Carolina.

He spent all season in A-ball Wisconsin, appearing in 26 games (23 starts) and posting a 3.92 ERA, with 109 strikeouts in 120 innings. He isn’t a sexy prospect by any means but carries a #4 starter ceiling and will be just 23-years-old in late March.

There is still room to add good weight to his tall frame, and the stuff shown thus far is at least MLB quality. Seattle will need to refine his delivery a bit and improve his command, but he should have a chance to do just that.

The real prize of this trade, and why so many Mariners fans have had difficulty wrapping their heads around the deal, is the comp round B pick. The MLB draft is overlooked by the average fan, in a way no other major sports draft is. For most fans, it may as well not exist. But it does and adding a Top 70 selection, along with the $900K it adds to your bonus pool simply means better players are coming into your system.

The abstract nature of not knowing who you actually got for Narvaez is difficult, but consider the Edwin Encarnacion trade last winter. When Seattle acquired Encarnacion from Cleveland, they also received a comp round B pick. They used that pick to select Isaiah Campbell, who immediately fell right around the 10th best prospect in a good Seattle farm system.

The return is rock solid and the process was both creative and well-executed. And when the masses don’t understand a trade, it kind of makes me like it even more. This is one of Dipoto’s better moves this winter.

Final Grade: B+

Mariners sign 1B/3B Patrick Wisdom to MLB Deal

One of the trends we have seen from the Mariners in recent years is to give long-time minor league veterans Major League contracts to lure them to Seattle. We saw it last year with Dylan Moore and R.J. Alaniz and we have another example this winter in Patrick Wisdom.

Unlike Moore, Wisdom does have some MLB seasoning under his belt, but the 28-year-olds track record strongly suggests he is an AAAA type of player. Wisdom has some tools, like above-average power and a good arm, but lacks the contact skills and defensive prowess to be an everyday option long-term.

The signing of Wisdom simply appears to come down to one need: insurance at first base if Evan White is unable to win the job out of Spring Training. Wisdom is a decent option to throw to the wolves while the team waits for White to claim the job.

If White is unable to start Opening Day, a platoon of Wisdom, Daniel Vogelbach, and Austin Nola could be deployed, though this is definitely less than ideal. And with Dylan Moore and Tim Lopes likely on the Opening Day roster, injury or poor performance is likely the only way Wisdom starts the year in Seattle.

He has a few options left, so sticking him in AAA Tacoma for a few months can’t hurt and if Kyle Seager misses time, he can handle third base in the interim. Wisdom is a fine depth move and giving him an MLB contract isn’t a big deal. But the ceiling is so low there isn’t a whole lot to get excited about.

Final Grade: C

Mariners sign RHP Kendall Graveman to 1-year, $1.5 million deal with a $3.5 million team option for 2021 ($500,000 buyout)

We knew the Mariners were going to sign pitchers that Dipoto referred to as “opportunity buys” and Kendall Graveman certainly fits that mold. Graveman’s injury history is quite well known, as he hasn’t even cracked more than 100 innings since 2017 and threw just 6 innings total in 2019.

And even when healthy, Graveman was nothing more than a Mike Leake type of arm. He throws strikes, generates plenty of groundballs, is a good athlete, and understands how to work through a lineup multiple times.

But the Mariners need innings from their rotation in 2020 and Graveman isn’t exactly a prime candidate to give them to you. However, there may be a glimmer of hope. Graveman is reportedly up to 94 MPH this winter, right where he was pre-injury.

If he can give Seattle 120+ innings of 4.50 FIP level pitching, he will easily be worth the $1.5 million investment. And even if he can’t, that isn’t a salary Seattle can’t and won’t simply absorb. There is quite literally no risk in the contract given to Graveman and a decent chance Seattle recoups the cost and then some.

But as the only starting pitcher signed by Seattle thus far, it is tough to know what the process is and to grade it in context. Graveman doesn’t miss bats and with his injury history, he doesn’t really fall into the “flippable” category this summer.

In a perfect world, Graveman is one of several arms fighting to win the 5th spot with a role in the middle innings of your bullpen as the floor. Unfortunately, as it stands today, Seattle has handed him the #4 spot in the rotation and that isn’t a great place to be.

Final Grade: C+

Mariners Sign Carl Edwards Jr. to 1-year, $950,000 contract with $500,000 in incentives.

The Mariners needed upside in their bullpen, along with some relative safety, and they found just that in Carl Edwards Jr. The former Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres’ set-up man was non-tendered after a disappointing 2019 season that saw him struggle heavily.

But in 2017 and 2018. Edwards Jr. was one of the best set-up men in the game. In 131 games over 2 years, Edwards Jr. posted a 2.81 ERA, a 3.19 FIP, a 153 ERA+, and 164 strikeouts in 118 innings.

He also posted a 1.14 WHIP and just 0.6 HR/9. Edwards was a borderline elite option entering 2019, but it all fell apart in 2019. But the 28-year-old still shows great stuff with a 94-97 MPH fastball with elite spin rates, as well as a curveball that is 65-grade at its best.

Edwards is a 2-pitch arm, but both of those offerings are plus. Once again, command is an issue for Edwards Jr., so Seattle is gambling they can help him fix that problem. As a bonus, Edwards Jr. is under club control through 2022, giving Seattle 3-years of potentially above-average or even plus late-inning option in their pen.

If Edwards Jr. turns things around, he could be one of the Mariners’ most tradable assets. Seattle is basically getting a free lottery ticket with a tremendous payout upside. There is quite literally no downside to this contract and there is a good chance Seattle found a good closer or relief ace for nothing.

This deal is the best of the off-season thus far. It earns high marks for process and execution. Hopefully, it pays off for Seattle.

Final Grade: A+

Bonus: Mariners sign Evan White to 6-year MLB deal for $24 million, with 3 team options worth $32.5 million

While we were only going to focus on additions from outside the Mariners organization, the signing of Evan White despite just 4 games above AA under his belt, may be the most important move of the off-season. With no MLB track record to go on, the grade of this contract will come down to the deal itself.

White will earn $24 million in his first 6-years of his contract and is due a $2 million buyout after year 6 if Seattle decides to decline his $10 million option for year 7, giving him $26 million guaranteed.

The deal maxes out as a 9-year, $55.5 million contract and would buy out White’s age-24 through age-32 seasons. The deal, in theory, covers most of White’s prime years and gives Seattle an excellent chance to recoup the cost quickly.

While the market place changes year to year, the general consensus is that 1 win is worth between $5-$7 million. To cover $55.5 million over 9 years, White only needs to produce 8 wins. In simple turns, White needs to average a 0.9 WAR per season over the course of the contract to give Seattle it’s money back.

White can produce most of that with his defense and base-running alone. If White is even an average bat, he is going to worth somewhere between 2-3 wins each season. Assuming he averages 2 wins per season over the 9-year length of the deal, White will produce $126 million of value in those 9 seasons.

White is going to be a good player, though great may be a stretch. But it is almost impossible for Seattle to lose money if White is good enough to force the Mariners to activate all 3 options. Even if Seatle only gets 6-years from White, he will need to produce just 3.7 WAR in that time, or just over a 0.6 WAR per season.

The White contract is almost certainly going to be a net win for the Mariners and sets the tone with other young players about the teams’ willingness to pay their young players. With the almost zero percent chance this deal doesn’t return value as well as the actually zero percent chance that this deal will torpedo the rebuild if it blows up, this is a fantastic deal.

Final Grade: A

Well, there you have it. An opinion on the 7 biggest moves of the Mariners off-season. Hopefully, Dipoto has a few more moves in him before Spring Training starts. If not, the off-season will almost certainly be an epic failure.