Seattle Mariners: 5 free agents who may be the ‘mystery pitcher’

Analyzing the free agent market to try and pinpoint the Mariners’ ‘mystery pitcher.’

After news broke of the Mariners’ agreement with free agent starting pitcher Kendall Graveman, The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish added that Seattle had also inked a deal with another starting pitcher. The announcement of this signing is expected Wednesday morning, but for now, we’re all left questioning who it may be.

The starting pitching market of free agency hasn’t been tapped into much here in the early going, so condensing things down to a list of five names won’t be a walk in the park. Odds are that the five names listed in this article won’t be our mystery man, but hey, we’re going to give this thing the old college try.

LHP DREW SMYLY (2019: 114 IP, 6.24 ERA, 9.47 K/9, -0.3 fWAR)

Ah yes, the man with the soggiest of arms. It’s been a rough road back from Tommy John surgery for Drew Smyly. Seeing MLB action for the first time since 2016, Smyly struggled to the tune of a 6.24 ERA in 114 innings pitched between Texas and Philadelphia.

As ironic as it may be, Seattle is possibly the best landing spot for Smyly at this point in his career. The Mariners have been able to identify potential in pitchers seemingly at the end of their rope, getting legitimate production out of guys like Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone.

Smyly is still fairly young in the grand scheme of things, getting set to pitch the first half of the 2020 season at the age of 30. It typically takes three years for pitchers to fully recover from Tommy John, and Smyly is now entering his third remove from the surgery. There’s still time for him to turn things around in his career and Seattle offers him an opportunity to do so at the back-end of their rotation, paired with a strong supporting cast of trainers and open-minded thinkers.

We really like the idea of bringing Smyly back. In FanSided’s MLB offseason simulation, Colby and I signed Smyly to a minor league deal, which would more than likely be the case if Smyly turns out to be the Mariners’ ‘mystery pitcher.’ I just can’t see many times having interest in him on a Major League contract.

RHP CLAY BUCHHOLZ (2019: 59 IP, 6.56 ERA, 5.95 K/9, 0.1 fWAR)

Since leaving Boston at the end of the 2016 season, Clay Buchholz’s career has been an interesting one to watch. His time in Philadelphia ended after just seven innings when he was forced to undergo forearm surgery. Then, in 2018, Buchholz put himself back on the map with a strong 16-start season for the Arizona Diamondbacks, in which he put up 1.7 fWAR with a 2.01 ERA.

Last year, however, injuries derailed his season once again, landing on the 60-day Injured List with a Grade 2 shoulder strain. Buchholz wound up pitching just 59 innings for Toronto and was knocked around for most of them. Still, given his 2018 campaign, there seems to be something left in the tank for him. It’s just all about staying healthy.

Honestly, the only reason Buchholz landed on this list is because Jerry Dipoto has had prior documented interest in him. Back in the winter of 2015, when Dipoto first became the general manager of the Mariners, Buchholz was one of two starting pitchers he had the option of trading for in talks with the Boston Red Sox. Dipoto wound up going the other direction, opting for Wade Miley over Buchholz and the rest is history.

I’m still not sold that this ‘mystery pitcher’ is anything more than depth move, so Buchholz is the type of pitcher I expect, as well as Smyly. Someone who may be able to unexpectedly give you some quality innings off of a minor league deal. Someone you don’t have to commit to with Logan Gilbert and Justin Dunn eagerly anticipating their opportunity to crack the big league rotation.

RHP JULIO TEHERÁN (2019: 174.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 8.35 K/9, 1.6 fWAR)

Julio Teherán has seemingly fallen of the face of the earth, which is weird considering that he hasn’t been all that bad. But now that the Braves have become one of baseball’s elite clubs, Teherán has taken a back seat as he slowly slips out of his prime.

Teherán, at worst, has been mediocre over the last three seasons. For better or worse, he’s been about the pitcher Mike Leake was for the Mariners. Most importantly, much like Leake, Teherán has stayed absolutely healthy, eclipsing 170+ innings in each of the last three seasons. In fact, he set his career-low in innings pitched last year with 174.2, and has gone as high as 221.

But the wear-and-tear that pitching that many innings on a yearly basis has seemed to have caught up with his arm a bit. At the start of his career, Teherán was hanging around the mid 90s on his fastball, but now finds himself topping out at 89-90. His walk numbers have also skyrocketed over the last three years, going from 1.96 BB/9 in 2016 to 3.44 in ’17, 4.30 in ’18, and 4.28 in ’19.

Still, Teherán enters free agency at the ripe age of 28 and will pitch the 2020 season at 29. The Mariners could use a dependable piece in their rotation who can eat a ton of innings like Leake and Teherán seems to fit the bill perfectly. Plus, you can easily trade a guy like that, as long as he stays healthy. You may not get a lot for him, but José Caballero’s been a solid addition since coming over in the Leake deal with Arizona. Just sayin’.

For what it’s worth, MLB Trade Rumors mocked Teheran to the Mariners on a two-year, $18 million contract in their annual free agency prediction piece.

LHP ALEX WOOD (2019: 35.2 IP, 5.80 ERA, 7.57 K/9, -0.2 fWAR)

Look, we’ve already established that this little routine probably isn’t going to nail down our mystery man, so allow me to take this time to talk a tiny bit about one of my favorite pitchers on the market: Alex Wood. It almost certainly isn’t happening, but I’d be absolutely ecstatic if the Mariners signed Wood this offseason.

Wood had the first down year of his career in 2019 after back issues sidelined him until late July, where he finally made his season debut. He had a rough go of it in the 35.2 innings he pitched, surrendering a 5.80 ERA while seeing his K/9 go down by nearly a full strikeout from his career average. But his back was just never fully right, which certainly contributed to his struggles on the mound and ultimately landed him back on the Injured List for the remainder of the season.

There should still be tons of interest in Wood, who should be back to full strength by Spring Training. Outside of last season, Wood has been worth nearly 3.0 fWAR for almost every season in his career. He’ll hang around the low 90s on his sinker and come back at hitters with a solid changeup and curveball combo, which should find him hanging around a strikeout per inning on the season.

Wood may aim for a one-year ‘prove it’ deal this offseason and reevaluate things next winter and I’d love to see the Mariners take that chance on him. Perhaps they establish a relationship with him and are able to convince him to stick around as they enter their window of contention.

A FEW OTHER NAMES TO CONSIDER

As I noted at the beginning of this article, this year’s free agency market for starting pitching is vast and bursting with tons of interesting names, and it hasn’t been tapped into much as of yet. This unannounced pitcher signing could realistically be 20 different guys, all ranging from your Kendall Graveman types to more of your Alex Wood types. So it’s hard to even pinpoint what kind of impact they’re looking for, if at all.

But here are a few more names for you to think over while we await tomorrow’s announcement:

• RHP Andrew Cashner (2019: 150 IP, 4.68 ERA, 6.48 K/9, 1.8 fWAR)
• RHP Homer Bailey (2019: 163.1 IP, 4.57 ERA, 8.21 K/9, 2.9 fWAR)
• RHP Tanner Roark (2019: 165.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 8.60 K/9, 2.0 fWAR)
• RHP Danny Salazar (2019 [rehabbing]: 4 IP, 4.50 ERA, 4.50 K/9, -0.2 fWAR)
• RHP Trevor Cahill (2019: 102.1 IP, 5.98 ERA, 7.12 K/9, -0.8 fWAR)
• RHP Tyson Ross (2019: 35.1 IP, 6.11 ERA, 6.37 K/9, 0.0 fWAR)
• RHP Jerad Eickhoff (2019: 58.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 7.87 K/9, -0.4 fWAR)
• RHP Jhoulys Chacín (2019: 103.1 IP, 6.01 ERA, 8.80 K/9, -0.1 fWAR)
• RHP Edwin Jackson (2019: 67.2 IP, 9.58 ERA, 6.92 K/9, -1.1 fWAR)
• LHP Brett Anderson (2019: 176 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.60 K/9, 2.0 fWAR)
• LHP Gio Gonzalez (2019: 87.1 IP, 3.50 ERA, 8.04 K/9, 1.4 fWAR)
• LHP Clayton Richard (2019: 45.1 IP, 5.96 ERA, 4.37 K/9, -0.2 fWAR)