Sodo Mojo’s 2019 Seattle Mariners Off-Season Plan

The time has finally arrived. Today, we unveil our website’s plan for how your Seattle Mariners should attack this off-season.

But before we get to the fun stuff, let’s lay down some of the ground rules for our little experiment. First, we are taking into account the real-world limitations of the Seattle Mariners. They have players they will not move and they have a budget that they won’t wildly exceed this winter, no matter how much you want them to.

Understanding those limitations, we have set a fairly strict $30 million budget to spend on new players this winter, roughly the same salary as the now-departed Felix Hernandez made in 2019. Once you factor in the players already waived by the Mariners and the fact we are waiving Tim Beckham, we have about $36 million to spend.

You won’t find any Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon in our plan either. They are great and we’d love to have them. But again, we run into the realism problem and it’s hard to see either player even being interested in Seattle.

Other than that, everything is on the table. If you can make it fit salary-wise and the move itself makes sense for a rebuilding team, we are willing to consider it. Now that you know our rules, let’s quickly cover the process.

First, about a month ago, we gave these rules to our team of writers and said, “come up with a plan and send it to us if interested”. We got 4 individual plans and in our latest podcast (click here to listen) Ty Gonzalez and yours truly, set out to mold a comprehensive plan.

Well, we failed. But instead of continuing to wring our hands and argue over the same talking points, we have come to an understanding. The idea of saying we are going to trade player x for players y and z isn’t really the point of this exercise.

Now don’t get me wrong, each slide will contain at least one potential trade proposal that we have agreed is at least somewhat reasonable. But this isn’t about trying to predict what will happen. This is just about identifying targets and what we would be willing to give up to make it happen.

With all that in mind, we present to you, Sodo Mojo’s 2019 Off-Season Plan.

Acquire 1B/OF Jake Bauers

First up, we are calling on the Seattle Mariners to acquire yet another first baseman. Now before you immediately write us off, allow me to explain. Jake Bauers is a 24-year-old, left-handed first baseman who also has extensive playing time in left field.

Bauers, who was involved in the Mariners 3-team deal to acquire Edwin Encarnacion, was drafted by the San Diego Padres and was soon traded to the Tampa Bay organization in the Trea Turner trade.

Bauers proceeded to hit his way to the big leagues, posting a .361 OBP in 630 MILB games. Bauers also made good strides in his defense at first base and graded out as having a 55-grade raw power tool with a good chance to hit for average and get on base.

Now 811 PAs into his big league career, Bauers is still showing an ability to take his walks, posting a 12.2% BB rate and the power has flashed in both seasons, hitting 23 home runs and 38 doubles. Bauers is passable in a corner outfield spot and is actually an above-average runner, ranking in the 69th percentile in sprint speed.

But Bauers hit tool hasn’t shown consistently enough, his current power grade doesn’t profile well at first base, and his defense isn’t good enough to make up the difference. And for a team whose window may be closing, it’s possible they just can’t afford to wait.

The Indians need OF who stand a good chance to help them in 2020, which may lead them to dangle the 24-year-old and his 4 seasons of club control to teams this winter. Our initial offer is Mallex Smith for Jake Bauers, but it is also possible that Domingo Santana could make sense as well.

Bauers is a lottery ticket add who can play first base until Evan White is called up and can also land in left field to see if his bat ever clicks. If it does, the Mariners will either have a nice piece on a young and talented roster or a good bat to try and flip next winter.

Trade Dee Gordon

Sometimes in rebuilds, teams have decisions that are incredibly easy. Some are incredibly hard. But for the Mariners, the decision of what to do with Dee Gordon this winter is somehow both. In a strict baseball sense, it is an easy decision.

Gordon just wrapped up his second season in Seattle and both years have been huge disappointments. He is also 31-years-old and in the final year of his contract, which is set to pay him $13 million, plus a $1 million buyout after the season. An aging player making money who appears to be in decline? Easy call for a rebuilding team.

But Gordon is beloved in the clubhouse and having a veteran like Gordon around for J.P. Crawford and Shed Long to learn from isn’t a major problem, especially because it’s not like Seattle needs that $13 million to give somebody else. They have money.

Plus, the likelihood you’ll get much of anything for Gordon begs the question as to whether it’s even worth it. It is certainly something that was a factor in our decision making and ultimately, we just couldn’t find a prospect that we liked for Gordon.

So, in theory, he should stick around. Well, we may not have found a prospect we like, but we have found a team that Gordon fits well. And it just so happens that this team has a disappointing player on a nearly identical deal. So, our proposal is a straight contract swap.

Now, in all honesty, I don’t know if this is enough. The Mariners may have to add a prospect to sweeten the deal because while Tyler Chatwood has been disappointing, he wasn’t terrible in 2019.

Chatwood finished the 2019 season with a 4.28 FIP, an 8.69 K/9, a 51% groundball rate, and a 0.6 fWAR. However, he gave up a lot of home runs, finishing the year with an HR/FB rate of 20%. Chatwood, like Gordon, is a free agent after 2020.

But Chatwood’s fastball spin rate and curveball spin rates both rank in the 95th and 99th percentile respectively. Chatwood is a great target this winter as with very little downside and tremendous upside, both in the rotation or in the bullpen, Chatwood will either help eat innings or become a valuable trade chip in July.

3. Target Phillip Ervin

When two of the 4 people involved an off-season plan are as interested in a player as our panelist were, he’s probably going to make the list. Phillip Ervin is a 27-year-old outfielder with the Cincinnati Reds who will not become free agent eligible until after the 2024 season.

Ervin experienced a bit of a breakout season in 2019, slashing .271/.331/.466 with 7 home runs in 260 PAs. Ervin has 200 big league appearances under his belt and in that time he has roughly a full season worth of PAs.

In his 571 PAs, Ervin has hit .262/.328/.438 with 17 home runs and 14 steals. That’s a quality player. Nothing special, but nothing to scoff at. Ervin is a good base-runner as well, grading out with a positive BsR in all 3 MLB seasons.

Ervin has logged the most innings in left field but also has 250 or more innings in both center field and right. He has the arm to play anywhere and actually was a solid outfielder in 2019, posting a +6 DRS in just under 520 innings. Here is our proposal:

Ervin isn’t a star but the possibility of adding a pre-breakout player with club control and versatility is intriguing. The difficulty in this deal is figuring out the cost. The Reds are looking to win in 2020 so a straight prospect for Ervin deal may not be enough.

Perhaps the team would be interested in Mallex Smith or Domingo Santana? Or maybe a bullpen arm like Sam Tuivailala would do the trick. It is possible that the fit just won’t be there on either side of this trade. But if a deal can be struck, Ervin at least has the potential to be a solid, everyday option for a few years.

Acquire Chris Archer

If you didn’t see this one coming, you must be new here. We have been clamoring for the Mariners to pursue Chris Archer since this summer, so of course, he found his way into this plan. But Archer is such an obvious fit, I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about this.

And before you start with the “why would a rebuilding team trade assets for a pitcher coming off a bad year” argument, you need to remember the last off-season. Because not only did the Mariners shock everybody and sign Yusei Kikuchi, they were also heavily involved in the Sonny Gray sweepstakes.

Gray, who only had one year left on his deal, was acquired by the Reds and nobody is questioning their decision after Gray put up a good season in Cincy and re-signed an extension last winter. But the reasons why the Mariners would be interested in Archer are the same reasons they were interested in Gray: a proven pitcher coming off a down year should be on every team’s radar, regardless of their current position.

This is especially true if the salary of the said pitcher isn’t outrageous. Archer’s contract situation is as team-friendly as it gets: consecutive team options worth $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021.

Even if you think Archer is cooked, those contract figures shouldn’t stop you from investigating whether or not that’s true. Archer still missed bats in 2019. The stuff was still above-average. Where Archer faltered was with his command. He set a new career-high in BB/9 and surrendered the highest HR/FB ratio of his career. Archer just turned 31 in late September.

Now again, we land on the question of cost. And to be honest, we couldn’t find a deal we loved. The Pirates are going to ask for a premier prospect for Archer, which nobody will give them. But Archer is probably still worth a mid-level prospect or two.

For the Mariners, this means somebody in the Braden Bishop, Sam Carlson, Juan Then, Brandon Williamson, and Isaiah Campbell range. It’s also possible that Pittsburgh will try to salvage something from Archer, but with a new regime coming into focus and a possible rebuild underway, every Pirate with the exception of Josh Bell should be made available.

Our initial proposal is one that a lot of people will dislike, but we think closely resembles last winters Sonny Gray to the Reds trade.

You either hate it or you love it. It is either not enough or too much. Well congratulations, you’re correct. We can’t nail down a great trade package for Archer and make everybody happy. But hey, neither can you so bring on your hate.

Trade Daniel Vogelbach

Go ahead and wash me in your judgment. I don’t love it either. Daniel “Cornelius Vogelbombs” Vogelbach is a fan favorite of this website, but let’s be honest, he isn’t a great fit for the Mariners. He’s not a first baseman and even if he was, Evan White will soon be here.

Vogelbach is a full-time DH who struggled to hit LHP all year and struggled to hit anything in the second half of 2019. But we aren’t giving up on Vogelbach and feel like his true self lies somewhere in the middle of first half Vogey and second half Vogey. And because of that, we aren’t advocating for the Mariners to just get him off the roster. Here is our proposal:

Scott Moss is a 25-year-old LHP who struck out 156 batters in 130 innings in AA and AAA this season. That kind of gaudy strikeout rate may lead you to wonder why he would be available and the answer to that is pretty simple. He walked a lot of guys. 70 to be exact.

He also has pretty average stuff, sporting a low-90s fastball with 2 average off-speed pitches, a changeup, and a slider. Both off-speed offerings have a chance to climb half of a grade and the fastball plays up thanks to his 6’6″ frame.

Moss is more than likely a swing guy but could develop into a useful piece on the pitching staff. Think what Ryan Yarbrough was to the Rays this season? Moss isn’t a sexy piece but he is one that could be more valuable to the Mariners than a platoon DH… no matter how fun he is. Sorry, Colton.

Trade Domingo Santana

The biggest debate in this entire experiment was Domingo Santana vs Daniel Vogelbach as the primary DH for the 2020 Mariners. In the end, we just agreed to trade them both. So if you want to make this a “choose your own adventure” exercise, take whichever of the two deals you prefer and go with that.

In our proposal, we are sending RHH OF/DH Domingo Santana to Tampa Bay for RHP/SS Jake Cronenworth. If you have followed the website with any regularity the past few months, you know how much we love Cronenworth. Allow us to explain why.

Cronenworth, who turns 26 in January, wrapped up his 2019 season spending 88 of his 91 games played in AAA Durham. In that time, he hit .334/.429/.520 with 10 home runs, 12 steals, and 26 doubles.

He also played solid-average defense at shortstop and might actually be an above-average second baseman with the arm to play at third. This versatility makes him a valuable asset, at least in theory.

And speaking of that arm, Cronenworth can also pitch, hitting 96 MPH from the mound, backed up with an above-average curve and a decent cutter. He didn’t pitch in 2019 but could return, making him the ultimate utility option.

Why would he be available? He is an older prospect who hasn’t made it to the big leagues, is blocked in Tampa, and has to be added to their 40 man roster by November 20th or he will be subject to the Rule 5 draft, where the Rays would lose him for nothing.

Why not just wait and select him in the Rule 5 draft? Aside from the possibility, he will get added, there is also the possibility he is drafted before you pick 6th. Besides that, if you can acquire Cronenworth before the Rule 5, you can use that pick on somebody else.

We are big fans of Cronenworth on this site, so finding a way to have him in our off-season plan was kind of a no-brainer. The Rays are looking for RHH power bats, preferably for one not making a lot of money. Santana could be a good fit if his elbow injury checks out. Hopefully, it does.

Sign Shogo Akiyama

Yeah, we are intrigued. Shogo Akiyama has already been linked to the Mariners and while it doesn’t sound like he is a star, his relatively high floor and ability to handle centerfield in the short-term are major assets for him.

Remember when we talked about raising the floor? Akiyama should also help accomplish that. He has above-average bat speed, can hit line drives from foul line to foul line, has some pop, is a smart baserunner, and should be at least average in centerfield.

He takes walks, puts the ball in play, and handles lefties and righties well. He may ultimately just be a 2 win player, but at the rumored price being as low as it is, Seattle should jump at the opportunity.

MLB Trade Rumors projects a 2-year, $6 million deal for Akiyama this winter. Our offer is right in line with theirs, as we are offering Akiyama 2-years, $8 million contract to reunite with former teammate Yusei Kikuchi in Seattle.

The 32-year-old isn’t the ideal fit, but having him handle centerfield in 2020 with almost no risk towards your young outfielders is a pretty good situation to be in. Again, it isn’t sexy, but adding an everyday outfielder or even an average fourth outfielder for these prices are too good to pass up.

Offer MILB Contracts to a trio of vets

Signing veterans or journeyman minor leaguers to minor league deals with invites to spring training is just as much of an off-season tradition as trades and free-agent signings. And every once in awhile, you can find a real gem. In trying to keep with a realistic off-season, we have a few options of guys we like.

First up, we have 2019 rotation member Tommy Milone. He was a great find for the Mariners last winter and helped save the rotation, covering 111.2 innings while posting a 4.76 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, a 7.6 K/9, and a 1.9 BB/9.

Milone was exactly what the Mariners needed last season, a reliable innings eater and could fill that role again. But there just isn’t much upside in Milone’s game anymore and his market won’t likely be vast. Milone is solid filler, but shouldn’t be viewed as much more.

Next up, another former Mariner, Drew Smyly. We already wrote about a potential Smyly reunion here, but the idea is simple. Be it as a bullpen member or winning a job in the rotation, Smyly is now 2 years removed from his Tommy John surgery and flashed his old stuff in 2019, minus the command.

If he can find his command and return to his pre-injury self, he could be a #3 starter or an above-average, multi-inning reliever. Either way, that is worth a flier.

Finally, we have Clay Buchholz, the 35-year-old righty formerly of the Red Sox, Phillies, and Blue Jays. Once rumored as a potential Mariners target, Buchholz is looking to extend his career after his 2019 was nothing short of a disaster.

However, his 2018 was quite good, post a 2.01 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 7.4 K/9, a 2.0 BB/9, and a 209 ERA+ in 16 starts that covered 98.1 innings. Buchholz’s entire career has been defined by injuries, but if he still wants to pitch, the Mariners may be the right team to give him that chance.

Sign Alex Wood

Yeah, we are also fans of Alex Wood. And while our projected offer of 1-year, $10 million may be a bit optimistic, it is still better than the MLB Trade Rumors projection, so we will live with our optimism.

Personally, I am a fan of offering multiple years and a higher AAV for Wood, so if he is truly available on a 1-year deal, the Mariners may be foolish not to pursue. When healthy, Wood is a mid-rotation arm with upside.

He posts solid strikeout numbers, has good control, has a career 1.22 WHIP, a 3.40 ERA, and a 3.49 FIP. He was an All-Star in 2017 and followed it up with a solid 2018 season before missing most of the 2019 season.

Sliding Wood into the rotation gives the Mariners a pretty solid 2020 rotation without committing a long-term contract that may block Logan Gilbert, Justin Dunn, Justus Sheffield, or George Kirby. With the goal of raising the floor and adding tradeable assets at a discount price, Wood may be the crown jewel of the off-season.

He certainly fits the “opportunity buy” type of arm Dipoto has said the Mariners will be interested in and if his market is as suppressed as some are predicting, it could be an awesome opportunity to add real talent.

It’s a wrap

There you have it, our 2019-2020 Mariners Off-Season plan. At the end of the day, we have 6 trades, 4 MLB free agent signings, a few MILB deals to look for and I’m sure you hate it all. Which is fine. Remember, the exact players aren’t as important as the concept behind them.

All the players we acquired are obviously players that we like, but many of them can just as easily be substituted for a player that you like. But considering our limited budget and a difficult needle to thread between raising the floor without blocking major prospects, I think we did okay.

The 26 man roster would look something like this:

• Catchers: Omar Narvaez, Tom Murphy, Austin Nola
• First base: Nola, Jake Bauers
• Second Base: Shed Long
• Third Base: Kyle Seager
• Shortstop: J.P. Crawford
• Left Field: Bauers, Phillip Ervin
• Centerfield: Shogo Akiyama
• Right field: Mitch Haniger
• Utility: Jake Cronenworth, Tim Lopes
• 4th OF: Jake Fraley
• Rotation: Marco Gonzales, Yusei Kikuchi, Justus Sheffield, Chris Archer, Alex Wood
• Bullpen: Tyler Chatwood, Aroyds Vizcaino, Hector Rondon, Sam Tuivailala, Brandon Brennan, Taylor Guilbeau,
• Fighting for OD roster: Braden Bishop, Kyle Lewis, Dylan Moore, Evan White, Drew Smyly, Tommy Milone, Clay Buchholz, Art Warren, Reggie McClain, etc.

So not a great team, but certainly one that is better on paper than the final product of 2020. There is a decent upside, good trade chips, no serious roadblocks, and we stayed within budget. Not bad for a few weeks of work.

We hope you enjoyed our fun little experiment. Even if you don’t like a single deal, hopefully, you got something out of it. But over 4,000 words later, I don’t have much more to say. Heck, by the time you read this, Jerry could have traded 3 guys and this is all for not.

We will wait and see what happens this winter, just like you guys. Hopefully, it gives us plenty to talk about.