We continue our slow countdown of the Seattle Mariners Top 40 prospects and we are about to reveal our 7th and 8th best prospect in the Mariners system.
I hope you guys understand our process for ranking these Mariners prospects but in case you forgot, here is a quick rundown. These ranks are just our opinion and are in no way “expert” level. We are working off stats, scouting reports, and grainy footage from MILBTV so we don’t get the best look at these players.
We each ranked out our Top 40 individually, revealed our list, and combine them with a point system. Our number slot was worth 40 points, our second slot is worth 39 and so on. It is simple and generates a pretty decent list, so we will keep it for a while. With that in mind, let’s get started.
8. Jake Fraley
Jake Fraley was perhaps the prospect with the most helium this season, quickly rising up rankings in every avenue. Fraley, who entered 2019 having never played above High-A ball finished his season in the Major Leagues, despite dealing with multiple injuries along the way.
Fraley, if you recall, was the second piece in the Mike Zunino for Mallex Smith trade, but quickly became a farm system followers favorite players. You don’t have to squint hard to see why so many people now view Fraley as a big part of the Mariners future.
He is a great athlete who shows average or better tools across the board. He can handle centerfield without issue, has plus speed, good and developing pop thanks to a quick swing and his well filled out 6’0″, 200 lbs frame.
We don’t even know what Fraley’s ceiling is, as he is still developing at 24-years-old. We have a good idea of the floor, which is that of a solid, contributing 4th outfielder. The 65-grade speed and 60-glove in center make him at least that.
But if the power continues to grow, then a ceiling of a solid, every day big leaguer is not out of the question. Fraley will likely start 2020 in AAA Tacoma but should see the big leagues early during the season and has an excellent chance of sticking around for a long time.
7. George Kirby
Full disclosure: I now think we are too low on George Kirby. The 2019 first-round pick may be viewed as the biggest steal of the 2019 draft when all is said and done. This goes beyond numbers as well. But since I brought them up, in 23 innings at Everrett, Kirby struck out 25 batters while walking none. You read that right, Kirby has yet to allow a walk in his pro career.
And that type of command is the calling card for Kirby. He has pinpoint command with all 4 pitches and understands how to get the most out of his above-average stuff. Don’t confuse Kirby with other noted strike throwers like Andrew Moore or Thomas Eshelman. That would do a major disservice to Kirby.
You see, unlike those guys, Kirby’s fastball sits comfortably at 93 MPH with good arm side run and has hit 97 MPH in the Northwest League. He backs up the plus fastball with 2 above-average breaking balls, both of which have flashed plus. Even his worse offering, the changeup, is major league quality and could be an above-average, swing and miss offering soon.
Kirby is, at the very least, an intelligent, strike-throwing machine, with 3 above-average pitches, and a smooth and repeatable delivery. At his best, he could have 3, 60-grade offerings with 65 or 70-grade command. If he reaches that upside, he is a strong number 2 type of arm. And yet, we only have him 7th? What’s a guy got to do?
We haven’t even factored in the potential for growth with Kirby. At 6’4″, he only weighs 200 lbs, giving him plenty of room to add good weight, potentially adding more thump to his fastball. Kirby could be the best pitching prospect in the system right now.
He will likely follow a similar path as Logan Gilbert did this year, starting 2020 in West Virginia and allowing his performance to dictate his call ups. Remember, Gilbert finished this season in AA West Virginia and very well could see the big leagues before the end of May next season.
Don’t be surprised if Kirby sees Seattle in September of 2020 and it isn’t insane to think he can be a mid-rotation starter for Seattle beginning in the first half of 2021.