Comparing Seattle Mariners Prospects to Big League Players, Part 1

Whenever we ask for questions or topics of discussion on Mariners Twitter, we are undoubtedly overwhelmed with questions about prospects. And since the major league product is what it is, it isn’t hard to see why.

But after a while, there is only so much you can say about how awesome Jarred Kelenic is or how great Justus Sheffield‘s slider looked before the question comes up: what could that look like at the big league level?

Fans love comps. And in all fairness, so do scouts. One of the most famous draft blunders in all of sports happened when numerous teams passed on Russell Wilson, simply because they couldn’t compare him to any other successful QB. Instead of seeing this as a good thing, it scared teams away and the rest is history.

And therein lies the problem with comps. You attach a name to a player and that becomes the bar. If you can’t find a comp, it must mean the guy can’t succeed. After all, nobody looks like this guy and succeeds, so why should he? It isn’t that simple.

And if a player gets too much praise and fails to live up to it, he is a bust, almost regardless of how good he actually is. So comps aren’t perfect and falling in love with a player because he reminds you of this player from your youth is a dangerous game.

That entire intro is there to make this point: don’t worry about what the comps below end up being. They aren’t important. They are just for fun and conversation, not to actually declare anything about the individual player. Also, we are talking about statistical comps, not style. So chill out and have fun.

We put out the bat signal for the prospects in which you guys wanted us to find comparisons. Naturally, we got so many unique responses, we can’t answer all of them in one article. So consider this part one of a series. Today we will focus on 4 players: Kelenic, Evan White, Donnie Walton, and Noelvi Marte. With that in mind, let’s get started.

Jarred Kelenic

Obviously the number one prospect in the system and Top 20ish overall is going to generate a lot of buzz in these discussions. After all, this guy is one of the 3 prospects the Mariners seems to be building around.

There is a lot of pressure surrounding Kelenic to hit the ground running, thanks to the 20-year-olds great debut season in the Mariners organization. He climbed all the way to AA Arkansas, impressing everywhere along the way.

He will likely make his debut in 2020 and has a chance to make that debut before his 21st birthday (July 16th). He has above-average skills across the board and has one of the highest floors of any prospect in the game.

Kelenic is a baseball junkie who loves to work on his craft and his body. The power continues to grow, going from average last year to above-average or even plus this year, and he’s only getting better. The most common comp I have heard is Grady Sizemore, the former centerfielder of the Cleveland Indians.

Sizemore was a really good player whose career was cut short by a series of injuries. But I have a different player in mind. My comp for Kelenic is post-2015 Bryce Harper. 

Boy, is that a big name or what? Well, it is, but totally reasonable. But what does that look like on the field? Well, since his god-level season of 2015, Harper has been a very good player, but not quite a star. In the 4 seasons since, he has hit .264/.387/.503 with 29 home runs and 12 steals per season.

Kelenic went 20/20 in the minors this season and that is without the benefit of the juiced baseball aiding his power numbers. Kelenic can easily get to 30 home runs a year and the steals fall right in line with what is likely.

No comparison is perfect but this feels about right. Offensively, I would probably swap about 20 points of OBP for BA regarding Kelenic, but the OPS is the true ceiling of Kelenic. But Kelenic is going to be a better defender, giving him a chance to make up value there.

Post-2015 Harper is a perennial All-Star, but not an MVP candidate, a ceiling Kelenic can certainly hit. The name Bryce Harper might lead to some overhyping, but when you look at the slash line, it tells you who Harper is now and what Kelenic could become.

Noelvi Marte

For the record, this is the name I feel the least qualified to offer a comparison for. Marte hasn’t even made his stateside debut and we have very limited reports from which to work with. As a prospect, Marte has shown good bat speed and pitch recognition, leaving many scouts to believe the hit and power tool will develop relatively soon.

The numbers seem to agree as Marte handled the DSL well, slashing .309/.371/.511 in 65 games with 18 doubles, 9 home runs, and 17 steals. The major question right now is whether or not Marte can stick at shortstop. He made 30 errors this season, which is concerning.

However, most of those are of the throwing variety, a problem that is much easier to patch than a range or footwork problem. The Mariners will give him every opportunity to stick there, but he may outgrow the spot. Marte doesn’t turn 18 for another 5 weeks and he stands at a solid 6’1″, 180 lbs.

Thankfully, Marte has the speed and arm to play anywhere on the diamond and a move to centerfield may be something to watch. Some scouts place a rare 80-grade on his run tool. For comparison, other 80-grade runners include Byron Buxton and Billy Hamilton.

Because of the enormous field of outcomes, I am going to give you a few comps. Buxton actually makes a lot of sense, though Marte would have to learn the outfield to ever catch up. One comparison I am quite fond of is A.J. Pollock.

Pollock has played for the Diamondbacks and Dodgers posting over 20 bWAR in what amounts to 5 full seasons. His 162 game average shows 20 home runs and 24 steals, though in his best season he stole 39.

One other name I would attach to Marte is Nationals shortstop Trea Turner. Turner is lighting fast with a good hit tool, decent pop, an average glove at short and could be best suited for the outfield. Sounds familiar. Until we see more of Marte, we can’t nail things down any further than that, but needless to say, Marte is a great prospect for Seattle.

Donnie Walton

Finally, we get to a player we will actually get to see in Seattle this year. Walton was called up to the Mariners on Monday after a fantastic season in AA Arkansas. Walton played a lot of shortstop for the Travelers but is probably best suited for second.

He isn’t an amazing athlete and doesn’t have eye-popping tools. But his baseball IQ is off the charts. He is fundamentally sound, rarely makes mistakes, and understands exactly what he can and can’t do on a field.

With the Travs, he slashed .300/.390/.427 with 22 doubles, 11 home runs, 63 walks, and just 72 strikeouts. In short, Walton puts the ball in play and sprays line drives all around the park with excellent knowledge of the strike zone.

None of this profiles as a star and Walton may not be more than a 25th or 26th man on the roster type, but the production on the field certainly warrants further investigation. There are 2 players I see when I watch Walton.

The first is Mark Ellis, former Oakland A’s second baseman. Ellis played in the big leagues for 12 years, slashing .262/.327/.383 and accumulated 33.6 bWAR thanks to his strong defense and bat-to-ball skills.

The other name I see as more of the upside of Walton is Ray’s second baseman, Joey Wendle. Like Walton, Wendle didn’t debut until age-26 and didn’t really stick in the big leagues until he was 28. But Wendle took advantage of his opportunity and slashed .300/.354/.435, cracking 46 extra-base hits and stealing 16 bags.

Walton is probably a big leaguer in some capacity and I guarantee you that you’ll hear a Willie Bloomquist comp at some point. Personally, I believe Walton has some upside, therefore eliminating the Bloomquist comp in my mind.

Walton is a personal favorite of mine, so I’ll be rooting for him to succeed. He will get his chance this month to do just that. Stay tuned for part 2 of our comp series.