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Comparing Seattle Mariners Prospects to Big League Players, Part 1
Jarred Kelenic
Obviously the number one prospect in the system and Top 20ish overall is going to generate a lot of buzz in these discussions. After all, this guy is one of the 3 prospects the Mariners seems to be building around.
There is a lot of pressure surrounding Kelenic to hit the ground running, thanks to the 20-year-olds great debut season in the Mariners organization. He climbed all the way to AA Arkansas, impressing everywhere along the way.
He will likely make his debut in 2020 and has a chance to make that debut before his 21st birthday (July 16th). He has above-average skills across the board and has one of the highest floors of any prospect in the game.
Kelenic is a baseball junkie who loves to work on his craft and his body. The power continues to grow, going from average last year to above-average or even plus this year, and he’s only getting better. The most common comp I have heard is Grady Sizemore, the former centerfielder of the Cleveland Indians.
Sizemore was a really good player whose career was cut short by a series of injuries. But I have a different player in mind. My comp for Kelenic is post-2015 Bryce Harper.
Boy, is that a big name or what? Well, it is, but totally reasonable. But what does that look like on the field? Well, since his god-level season of 2015, Harper has been a very good player, but not quite a star. In the 4 seasons since, he has hit .264/.387/.503 with 29 home runs and 12 steals per season.
Kelenic went 20/20 in the minors this season and that is without the benefit of the juiced baseball aiding his power numbers. Kelenic can easily get to 30 home runs a year and the steals fall right in line with what is likely.
No comparison is perfect but this feels about right. Offensively, I would probably swap about 20 points of OBP for BA regarding Kelenic, but the OPS is the true ceiling of Kelenic. But Kelenic is going to be a better defender, giving him a chance to make up value there.
Post-2015 Harper is a perennial All-Star, but not an MVP candidate, a ceiling Kelenic can certainly hit. The name Bryce Harper might lead to some overhyping, but when you look at the slash line, it tells you who Harper is now and what Kelenic could become.