Seattle Mariners Prospect Trade Target List: AL Central

Which American League Central prospects do we have our eye on as potential future Mariners?

As we swing into the second half of May, trade speculation is starting to grow. Some teams have jumped out in front of the pack as clear contenders and buyers for July’s trade deadline, while others have found themselves in a hole too deep to dig out of. Most, however, remain on the fence about their potential in 2019.

The American League Central may be the toughest division to crack in baseball. Not because of how competitive it necessarily is, but rather because of how mediocre all five teams have been over the last year and change.

The Twins are off to hot 31-16 start in 2019, with the preseason favorite Indians nearly six games behind them. After that, the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers all appear to be headed for another woeful season. That’s not a good thing for us, as it makes it that much more difficult to pry anything of worth out of their respective farm systems.

But, as Colby and I did last week with the American League West, we have each found a prospect from all five teams in the Central that we would love to see the Mariners acquire at some point in the near future.

If you need a refresher on how this works, Colby and I find one prospect per team that could realistically be had if the Mariners so desire. So while we would love to get Nick Madrigal from the White Sox or Casey Mize from the Tigers, it ain’t happening so we’re not going to even bother.

Minnesota Twins

Ty’s pick: RHP Griffin Jax

The Twins are leading a mediocre division by five-and-a-half games and only have a struggling Cleveland team to worry about. Barring catastrophe, they’ll be buyers at the deadline and could line up well with what the Mariners have to offer, whether it be Edwin Encarnación, Roenis Elías, etc.

For my pick, I went with right-handed pitcher Griffin Jax. Picked in the third round of the 2016 MLB Draft, Jax’s commitment to the Air Force held him back through the first two years of his professional playing career. However, after being accepted into the Air Force’s World Class Athlete program a year ago, Jax was given the green light to fully commit to—and proceed with—his life in baseball.

So far, things have gone well for Jax. In 87 innings of work last year, the 24-year-old posted a 3.70 ERA while keeping the ball on the ground 53.9% of the time. Jax currently flashes a three-pitch repertoire that features a low-90s fastball with sink, an above-average changeup that serves as his crutch pitch, and a slider that has shown signs of improvement in 2019.

Though he may never see a high volume of strikeouts on a game-to-game basis, Jax has above-average command of all three of his pitches and should succeed in consistently generating weak contact and eat innings. Sounds familiar.

Now in Double-A at 24-years-old, Jax could potentially make his MLB debut as soon as September and no later than early 2020. That will work for the Mariners, who continue adding pieces close to—or already in—the MLB.

Colby’s pick: LHP Stephen Gonsalves

A one time Top 100 Prospect, the road from top prospect to successful big leaguer has been anything but a straight line for Stephen Gonsalves. He got his first cup of coffee in 2018 and it was a disaster as he posted a 5.72 FIP with more walks than strikeouts in 24.2 innings.

Gonsalves has yet to throw a pitch in 2019 and does have some serious command issues. But what he does have is a solid repertoire, including a low-90’s fastball from the left side. He also sports 2 average breaking balls and an above-average changeup that flashes plus at times.

Gonsalves turns 25 in July and the Minnesota Twins appear to be the class of the AL Central, so they will likely be willing to part ways with prospects like Gonsalves to bolster their team for the playoffs.

With a solid track record in the high minors, #4 starter stuff, and 6-years of club control expect Jerry Dipoto to at least inquire on the left-handed pitcher at some point this season.

Cleveland Indians

Ty’s pick: OF Will Benson

Acquisitions of Jesse Biddle, Marco Gonzales, and J.P. Crawford, amongst others, have made one thing clear: Jerry Dipoto isn’t afraid to take on former first-rounders that have failed to meet expectations. The strategy is simple, and one that relies heavily on the development processes of the Mariners’ organization in comparison to that of the player’s original team.

This has worked in Seattle’s favor on more than one occasion. With the Cleveland Indians still on a course to buy at this July’s deadline, another such opportunity may present itself to Dipoto and co. in the form of outfielder Will Benson.

Since being selected 14th overall by Cleveland in the 2016 MLB Draft, the 20-year-old Benson has struggled to adjust to the professional level. These struggles came to a head in 2018, where Benson slashed .180/.324/.370 in 123 games for Low-A Lake County. Benson did, however, put his above-average power on full display with 22 home runs in that season, but struck out at an enormous 30% clip while doing so.

In fact, Benson has yet to sit under the 30% mark in terms of strikeouts through his first two-and-a-half seasons in pro baseball. That hasn’t changed in 2019, as Benson currently sports a career-high strikeout percentage of 34.4% through his first 154 plate appearances.

What has changed, though, is Benson’s overall success on the stat sheet. Back in Low-A this year, he’s currently slashing .265/.351/.537 with nine home runs, 28 RBI, and a career-high 13 steals.

It’s that dual-threat of power and speed that should be appealing to Dipoto and his team. Still, there are some glaring issues in his plate approach and his aggressive swing may need to be altered for him to sustain success at higher levels, which the Mariners have had plenty of success with in the past.

Colby’s pick: RHP Lenny Torres

The Cleveland Indians are battling a slew of injuries and have fallen behind the red hot Minnesota Twins early in 2019. If this trend continues, expect Cleveland to hold onto their prospects and become sellers. But if they stay in the race, they do have needs they’ll have to address.

If Cleveland comes knocking on the door of Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners, I’d like to see them find a way to come out of these negotiations with RHP Lenny Torres. The 2018 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick, 41st overall, has great stuff and is just 19-years-old.

When healthy, Torres fastball sits 93-95 MPH with an easy delivery and can hit 98 on occasion. The slider is already an above-average pitch and flashes plus on more than a few occasions. With two pitches already plus, Torres has a high-floor of a high-leverage reliever. But he could be a #2 or #3 starter if his changeup continues to develop with his command.

The slight build leads some to believe he is destined for the bullpen and he already has one Tommy John Surgery to his record. But with his upside and high floor, he is a great target for Dipoto.

Detroit Tigers

Ty’s pick: LHP Tarik Skubal

Let’s get this out of the way: the Tigers aren’t going to be buying at the deadline. To acquire a prospect from Detroit is to likely sell one of your very own, which means you have to be absolutely in love with who you’re getting.

Seattle University alum Tarik Skubal could fit that mold, as he looks like a pitcher after Jerry Dipoto’s own heart. The 2018 ninth-rounder has settled into professional baseball beautifully. After piggybacking starts in his rookie year, Skubal has become a staple in High-A Lakeland’s starting rotation.

Through his first eight starts of 2019, Skubal has posted a 3.48 ERA while averaging 11.32 strikeouts and just 1.74 walks per nine innings. Opponents are hitting just .197 off of Skubal, who’s had great success with both of his breaking balls in addition to his mid-90s fastball.

Right now, both his fastball and curveball are plus pitches for him. If the slider can develop into an above-average option, Skubal may shed his 2021 projection and be in a Major League rotation at some point next year. At the very least, he may wind up on a few prospect lists. He’s really exciting.

Colby’s pick: RHP Logan Shore

The second round pick of the 2016 MLB Draft, Logan Shore had a great career at the University of Florida. The 6’2″, 215 lbs right-handed pitcher, is currently pitching in AA and could make his MLB debut in 2019.

Shore doesn’t have elite stuff, but he gets by with above-average command of his 3-pitch mix. The fastball sits in the low-90s but it does have some sink and run, and could be an above-average offering.

The changeup is his best pitch and sits in the upper-70s and shows good fade and is thrown with good arm speed. The slider is the pitch to watch. The offering is below-average but has improved in his pro career.

Shore doesn’t have the highest upside, but if the slider can improve a full grade, he should be a solid 4th starter. A move to the bullpen could add a few ticks to the fastball, giving him a solid two-pitch offering, similar to Brandon Brennan.

Shore wouldn’t be all too expensive since the Tigers have a lot of arms in their farm system already. Shore should be up by 2020 and if the Mariners analytics department can see a tweak or two, he could be a steal.

Kansas City Royals

Ty’s pick: LHP Kris Bubic

Just like the Tigers, the Royals are in no position to start shipping off their prospects, especially ones like Kris Bubic. The difference between the Tigers and Royals, however, is that Kansas City currently poses one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball. They desperately need talent, and selling one of their better prospects sounds less than ideal.

Ignoring that for the sake of the article, if there is somehow a way for the Mariners to acquire Bubic, I’d be absolutely ecstatic. The 40th overall selection of the 2018 MLB Draft has turned heads in his first full season with the Royals’ organization, leading all Low-A pitchers in strikeouts with 75.

For Bubic, the success stems from a great balance of a low-90s fastball with movement and a plus changeup that consistently deceives opposing hitters. When he’s not missing bats entirely, he’s generating weak contact.

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of Bubic’s 2019 campaign has been the improvement shown on his curveball. He’s proved that he can survive without it, but if he can get the curve working for him on a consistent basis, that could change his entire outlook moving forward.

Colby’s pick: OF Kyle Isbel

The Royals are highly unlikely to be selling prospects this July, especially guys like Kyle Isbel. But if a deal could be struck, Isbel is exactly the type of player Dipoto should target. A third-round pick of 2018, Isbel is already in High-A ball.

He is a good athlete, possessing plus speed and above-average defense in the outfield. The Royals have played with the idea of moving Isbel to second, a position he did play in college. Isbel also has an above-average bat, though it is more of a line drive swing.

He shows a good understanding of the strike zone and he still has some power potential. With his ability to play up the middle, his power is less important. Isbel has a high floor with some pretty strong upside, the perfect player for the rebuilding Mariners.