Seattle Mariners Extension Candidate: Outfielder Mallex Smith

The latest trend in Major League Baseball is teams getting players signed to long-term extensions. Could the Mariners follow suit and look to lock up one of their players long-term?

Some of these deals work out great for players like Randall Grichuk. Other times, in the cases of Whit Merrifield and Ozzie Albies, the team absolutely gets a steal. The Mariners have not been a team to hand out many in-season extensions in the past unless you count Wade LeBlanc‘s minor contract extension last season.

But the idea of these early extensions is to create a win-win for players and team. Typically, the team gives an immediate pay raise to a pre-arbitration or arbitration 1 guys and the player gives up an extra year or two of free agency to get the guaranteed money now.

Typically, these deals work out great for teams and leave the players chasing money later in their career. However, there is still a risk for the team offering these extensions. Take our test subject today, Mr. Mallex Smith.

Smith is in the final year of pre-arbitration. So he will play this year at the league minimum. Starting this off-season and for the next 3 years, Smith and the Mariners will, in theory, negotiate a series of 1-year deals until after the 2022 season when Smith will become an unrestricted free agent for the first time.

Smith will earn roughly $578,000 this year. Depending on his production, it is likely his salary will be roughly $3 million in 2020, $6 million in 2021, and $8-$10 million in 2022 before he can hit free agency.

So all in all, the Mariners have Smith on a 4-year deal worth roughly $20 million total. At that point, Smith will be entering his age 30 season and free agency hasn’t been too kind to non-elite players entering their 30’s. In addition, none of the salary estimates above are guaranteed. Seattle could non-tender Smith without losing a dollar. This makes Smith a good candidate for an extension.

The tough part of any type of deal is the years and AAV. But there are other things to consider too. Does Mallex want to stick in Seattle? Do the Mariners see Mallex as part of their future or just a stop gap to be sold for future assets.

Smith’s age certainly fits the Mariners timeline for contention, so it is more likely the former than the latter. But what does this deal look like? From the Mariners perspective, any extension talks likely have to start at 6 years. Buying out 1-year of free agency doesn’t do much for Seattle.

A 6-year extension gives the Mariners 2 extra years of club control and would make Mallex a Mariner until after his age 31 seasons. The team would still be getting Smith’s prime years and Mallex would get at least one more shot in free agency.

So the question is what would Mallex Smith likely earn as a free agency for the 2023 and 2024 season. He doesn’t hit for power and isn’t a great defender in center field, at least not yet. Baseball wants some pop out of left field. Slap hitting corner outfielders aren’t a premier position, so his value is going to be depressed.

Projecting Mallex for a 3-year, $30-$36 million contracts in free agency may actually be generous, but it is what we will work with. This means, if Smith played things out on a year to year basis and got to free agency, he would earn roughly $44 million in that 6 year period.

But a lot can happen in 6 years. Smith could get hurt. He could lose a step. Or he could take a step back from his 2018 numbers back to his previous iterations. If any of these things happen, Smith’s earning power would drop dramatically.

So what is a fair deal for both player and team (assuming there is mutual interest in getting a deal done)? Our proposal:

5-year extension worth $30 million, $12 million team option for 2024 ($3 million buyout), Mutual option for 2025 worth $12 million ($1 million buyout).

With this proposal, Mallex Smith could max out at a 7-year deal worth $54 million. It comes with $33 million in guarantees for the next 5 seasons as the minimum.

Seattle gets total control of Smith for 6 seasons with the potential of 7. If Smith is a 2 win player on average for the next 6 years, Smith would be worth between $60-$84 million, giving the Mariners good value for Smith.

So there you have it. The Mariners get Mallex Smith for at least 6 years at a good value. Mallex gets $33 million guaranteed with the opportunity to earn $54 million over the next 7. This deal requires some give and take on both sides, which makes it all the more interesting.

There are a ton of variables to consider, making this possibility extremely difficult to peg. But if the Mariners want to get involved in the extension game, this may be a good starting point for both sides.