Seattle Mariners 2019 Position Preview: Relief Pitchers

As the Mariners wrap up their busiest offseason to date, no position group has changed more over the last three months than their bullpen. Six of the team’s Opening Day relievers now play elsewhere and there are a lot of new names to learn.

Edwin Díaz is gone. So are Álex Colomé, Nick Vincent, James Pazos, Juan Nicasio, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Zach Duke, Casey Lawrence, and Erasmo Ramírez. It’s an extensive list of names that range from All-Stars, to serviceable depth, and the bottom of the barrel. Some of these departures will certainly hurt the chances of the Mariners’ bullpen to succeed in 2019, while others won’t shift the needle one way or another.

But the Mariners are ultimately rebuilding; therefore, losing any and all relievers simply does not matter, even in the case of Díaz. Relievers are rarely nothing more than a crapshoot, and are more often than not interchangeable. Having a great bullpen sounds nice on paper, but it’s the final piece to the puzzle of a contending team – not the driving force of a rebuild.

Four of the aforementioned relievers helped bring back what the Mariners believe to be key pieces in the progress of their retooling. Díaz led the charge to acquire Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, while Pazos and Nicasio acted as the final touches on the J.P. Crawford deal, and Omar Narváez came in exchange for Colomé.

In recent years, baseball fans have witnessed the trade market greatly inflate for bullpen pieces. Majority of the time, the suitor is a team on the brink of championship contention looking to add that final piece for a deep playoff push. This is especially important for Seattle, because of the opportunity out there for them to flip several of their relievers based on the results of their upcoming season.

While many sports fans gloss over the effect trades have on the mental state of players and their families, and is generally just an icky thing to wish on someone, it’s a key part of the business that is Major League Baseball, and is typically the most fruitful avenue to take in rebuilding an organization.

As Mariners fans entering the 2019 season, the hope will be for the success of all M’s relievers, but not in terms of wins and losses. Some of it will be for the development of the organization’s younger arms, while most of it will be for the building of trade value to continue adding solid pieces to an ever-evolving farm system.

For today’s piece, we’ll be looking at quite a few of these names that inhibit the 40-man roster, as well as those that may make their way through the system and wind up taking the mound at T-Mobile Park at some point next season.

MIDDLE RELIEVERS, PART 1

This will be the meat and potatoes of the Mariners’ bullpen, and there are certainly tons of names to choose from. These relievers fall more under the traditional category of the position and will likely be spotted anywhere from the fifth to seventh innings of most ballgames.

Of the seven names likely to be considered for three-to-five spots in the bullpen, two appear to be set in stone with Matt Festa and Cory Gearrin.

The 25-year-old Festa is coming off a quick eight-inning cup of coffee at the Major League level and looks to be ready to assume a full-time role in the Mariners’ bullpen. With Double-A Arkansas last year, Festa tossed a 2.67 xFIP with a 12.31 K/9 over 49 innings of work. If the high strikeout numbers, Festa could eventually take his dangerous fastball/slider combo into a late inning role, though his skillset is better suited for damage control rather than closing games.

Gearrin is in a similar boat, bolstering solid stuff but not enough to warrant a significant role. The 32-year-old bounced around between three teams last year, winding up in Oakland after being traded from Texas in August. During that time, Gearrin posted an average 4.34 xFIP with a little less than a strikeout per inning. He’s a pitcher that relies less on missing bats and more on pitching to contact, which usually goes to one extreme or another.

Competing for what should be the final spots decided upon are returning pitchers Dan Altavilla, Chasen Bradford, and Nick Rumbelow, as well as newcomers Zac Rosscup and Gerson Bautista.

Bradford and Bautista, both former Mets, may be on the outside looking in when camp starts next week, but things can quickly change in the desert heat. The 29-year-old Bradford got off to a solid start, but began to show his weaknesses as the season dwindled. Bradford simply won’t overpower hitters; instead, he relies on contact, which bit him more than once in 2018, reflected by his struggles with the home run ball and a low groundball percentage for a pitcher of his particular skillset (46.6%).

Bautista, on the other hand, has one great tool: he can top out at 100 MPH on his fastball. The problem? He can’t locate the pitch, or either one of his other two pitches for that matter. Command and location has been a big, well-documented issue for Bautista throughout his professional career, and that won’t change overnight.

Simply, Bautista is a project for a team that has succeeded in producing quality relievers from within their system, so all hope isn’t yet lost for 23-year-old. But it’s going to be tough for him to figure things out over the next month or so in order to break camp with the Major League club.

MIDDLE RELIEVERS, PART 2

Despite a 2018 season of injury woes and disappointment on the mound, there are still many who believe in Nick Rumbelow reaching his potential, including Seattle’s front office. Entering his third year removed from Tommy John surgery, this will be a make-or-break season for Rumbelow, who currently sits right in the middle of consensus Mariners prospect rankings.

The journey starts in Spring Training for Rumbelow, who won’t initially be guaranteed a spot in the bullpen, but may be in the driver’s seat to land a role going in. The Mariners are well aware of the potential the 27-year-old righty has, and how giving him a long look at the MLB level may prove worthwhile to them in the end. But after the hiccups of last season, it will have to be earned.

Right behind Rumbelow is Dan Altavilla, who missed the entire second half of the season with a sprained UCL. Before the injury, he got off to a decent start, notching a 10.02 K/9 and being awarded the win in three of his five decisions.

Altavilla will be one of the more intriguing storylines of Spring Training, as fans will want to keep a close eye on how the injury will affect his signature velocity moving forward. This also may be his last go of it with Seattle, as the 26-year-old flamethrower could become a prime DFA candidate if he doesn’t break camp with the team.

As is with baseball, at least one of the pitchers we’ve mentioned up until this point won’t make it the entire season. This isn’t a prediction based on the harsh realities of the sport or the occasional case of bad luck, but a statement based on the expected Summer return of Sam Tuivailala.

Acquired in advance of last year’s trade deadline, Tuivailala appeared in five games for Seattle before rupturing his achilles tendon against the Rangers on August 8. Tuivailala is expected to be present at Spring Training but won’t pitch for quite some time, but his return to the mound at some point in 2019 is inevitable.

One pitcher that may be safe, however, is Zac Rosscup. As mentioned when going over Roenis Elías, the Mariners are lacking left-handed relief depth and Rosscup’s handedness may greatly assist him in securing a spot in the bullpen. Unless he bombs in Spring Training, of course.

But Rosscup is a very interesting pitcher who misses a ton of bats and has encouraging splits against both righties and lefties. Mariners fans may recognize the name from the team’s August series with the Dodgers, in which Rosscup threw an immaculate inning in one of his two appearances.

The M’s haven’t had a southpaw with the strikeout capabilities of Rosscup, at least consistently. He’s an underrated addition from this past offseason, and looks to have the makeup of a decent trade piece with a good season come July.

In addition to all of the relievers we’ve analyzed thus far, there are reinforcements waiting throughout the various levels of the Mariners’ farm system. Don’t be surprised if Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, Sam Delaplane, Collin Kober, and even 2018 draft picks Joey Gerber and Nolan Hoffman all make an appearance for the Mariners by season’s end.

LATE INNING RELIEVERS

If there is any sort of silver lining going into the first season of a rebuild, it’s the experimentation that comes with it. Fans should expect a lot of experimenting on the frontlines of the Mariners’ bullpen, with three veteran relievers expected to get a look at the closer’s role and let the rest figure itself out.

In that group, there are newly-acquired relievers Hunter Strickland and Anthony Swarzak, as well as Shawn Armstrong, who returns to the Mariners following a – pun intended – strong finish to the 2018 season. Ironically, all three have not been giving consistent opportunity to close throughout their career, though all carry some faint experience.

Of the three, Strickland has the most experience after taking over closing duties for the injured Mark Melancon in San Francisco last season. But after a blown save against the Marlins, Strickland fractured his hand in frustration and subsequently lost his closer job upon his return, and eventually his employment with the Giants after the season.

Prior to 2018, Strickland had been one of the game’s premier non-closers in a consistently solid Giants bullpen. The Mariners signed Strickland to a one-year deal, though the 30-year-old has a final arbitration-eligible year attached to him. So it’s possible Strickland will last in Seattle beyond the 2019 season, though putting a good year together, especially as a closer, could put strong value back on his name by the deadline.

Armstrong falls under a similar category, though he carries four years of control and lacks the name value Strickland holds. But he also has the highest potential of these three veteran relievers and fits the mold of closer the best, bolstering a three-pitch repertoire that equally misses bats and keeps balls on the ground at a steady rate.

While Strickland appears to be the early frontrunner for closing duties, Armstrong will get his shot at it and may assume full control over the role early on in the season.

Of course, there’s also Swarzak, who’s blown nine of 15 save opportunities in his career. Not very encouraging numbers for someone who may be involved in the Mariners’ closer competition. However, Swarzak is currently nursing a shoulder injury heading into Spring Training, potentially making it a two-horse race between Armstrong and Strickland.

In 2017, Swarzak pitched a solid 77.1 innings for the White Sox and Brewers, posting a 10.59 K/9 and 2.74 FIP. That earned him a two-year, $14 million contract with the Mets. But the 33-year-old righty struggled to stay healthy and floundered when he got his opportunities on the mound, struggling with command issues and keeping runners off the base paths.

The Mariners acquired Swarzak in the Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó deal in order to offset some of the money in Canó’s contract. Jerry Dipoto and co. will be holding out hope for Swarzak to bounce back this season and rebuild some of his value in order to shed a little bit off of his remaining salary and get something in return for him.

If the M’s are successful in dealing any of the aforementioned relievers, it seems likely that either Wyatt Mills or Art Warren will get a crack at handling the ninth inning towards the end of the year. Any sort of productivity out of the role from either one would be a huge boost for the future of the Mariners’ bullpen, and perhaps wipe the bad taste of dealing Díaz out of some fans’ mouths.