Seattle Mariners 2019 Position Preview: Starting Pitchers

Entering the 2018 season, starting pitching was the biggest question mark on the Mariners’ roster. Now, a year later, this group of starters may be the most exciting Seattle has had in recent memory, even after the departure of James Paxton.

But while the loss of Paxton certainly dampens the outlook for the Mariners’ 2019 season, the return of Justus Sheffield in the Paxton deal certainly brightens their future for years beyond. That deal set the theme of Jerry Dipoto’s offseason into motion, in which arguably the busiest general manager in baseball continued to shed his team’s veteran stars in favor of young, blossoming talent.

Perhaps the most exciting aspect of Dipoto’s recent starting pitching acquisitions is that they’re all already at the Major League level, or at least on the 40-man roster, save for Justin Dunn, who may be entering his name into the fold sooner rather than later. At the very least, Dipoto has certainly put the pieces in place to hopefully meet his goal of contending by 2022.

Today, we’ll be looking at the eight starting pitchers that currently hold spots in the Mariners’ 40-man roster, as well as a more in-depth look at those that are expected to break camp with the team by mid-March.

JUSTUS SHEFFIELD, ERIK SWANSON, AND RICARDO SÁNCHEZ

As the consensus top prospect in the Mariners’ farm system, Justus Sheffield has the biggest burden to bear of any of Seattle’s newly-acquired youngsters. Likely starting his season in Triple-A Tacoma, Sheffield has a few things to work on – namely command – before reaching the MLB full-time, though his call-up could be as soon as the end of May.

The 22-year-old has been widely projected as a future #3 in most Major League rotations, earning himself comparisons to current Cubs starter José Quintana.

Sheffield wasn’t the only starting pitcher to head Seattle’s way in the James Paxton deal, however. Erik Swanson, the 25-year-old righty Jerry Dipoto also acquired for Paxton, has unfortunately been overlooked for most of the offseason, but may have a more immediate impact at the MLB level than Sheffield.

While Swanson will likely join Sheffield in Tacoma to start the season, he doesn’t really have anything left to prove in the Minors. After three full seasons with a sub-3.50 FIP, all that’s left for Swanson to do is develop a secondary plus-pitch. If not, you may see him transition to a role in the bullpen, which is where he may end up at some point in his career no matter what.

In the event of injury to one of the Mariners’ five incumbent starters, or a potential March trade of Mike Leake, Swanson should be expected to be first in line to step in. Another benefactor may be Ricardo Sánchez, whom the M’s acquired from the Braves for everyone’s favorite player: cash considerations.

Sánchez is still raw at just 21-years-old and is coming off just 57.2 innings of experience at the Double-A level, but is seen to be a relatively quick riser due to his particular skillset. His season may start in Arkansas, though Tacoma isn’t completely out of the question. Therefore, Sánchez may benefit in a different way than Swanson, by being put into a position to face higher quality competition in Triple-A earlier than expected depending on Tacoma’s roster numbers.

Barring any sort of catastrophe, fans should expect to see at least two of these three pitchers at T-Mobile Park, if not all three. If anything, it’s a great indication for those in the area to catch a Tacoma Rainiers game or two in the late Spring.

FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ

There is no current Mariners player fans should be more grateful for than Félix Hernández, but that doesn’t mean the 32-year-old is exempt from criticism. After three seasons filled with injury concerns and below-average pitching throughout, Hernández’s inability to adapt to his limitations at his age and accept his own mediocrity has seemingly spelt the end of his best days.

The only thing that has kept Hernández afloat in Seattle has been the five-year, $135.5 million contract extension he signed in 2013, of which he is now entering the final year of. In all likelihood, 2019 will be Hernández’s farewell tour in a Mariners uniform.

Unfortunately, expectations for Hernández’s upcoming season are at an all-time low, and any such farewell tour will be celebrated by the team for finally being rid of his extraordinarily restrictive contract rather than for his accomplishments on the field.

As a fan, the hope should be that Hernández pitches well enough to earn himself some consideration on the trade market come July or August. The Mariners would never get anything of value in return, and would likely have to eat nearly all of his remaining salary, but it would give him a shot to finally reach the postseason.

That feels more like wishful thinking than anything, though.

WADE LEBLANC

The 2018 Mariners were full of surprises, but no one overachieved as much as Wade LeBlanc did. After being reacquired by Seattle last Spring, LeBlanc initially filled a role in the bullpen before the injury bug came down and forced the 34-year-old into the rotation, a spot he would never relinquish.

What LeBlanc did from there was extraordinary, posting a 9-5 record with a 3.72 ERA, good enough for a total of 1.7 fWAR. His biggest moment came against the Boston Red Sox in a nationally televised game during the Summer, in which he shut the eventual World Series champions out with 7.2 innings worth of two-hit ball.

It’s hard to imagine LeBlanc repeating the success of his past season, but it’s something fans should certainly watch with great interest. LeBlanc is, essentially, the Mariners’ very own Rich Hill. Attached to an extremely team-friendly contract with up to four years worth of club control, LeBlanc could land on the radars of several contending teams looking to bolster the back of their rotation come July or earlier.

For now, LeBlanc will continue being one of the better personalities in the Mariners’ clubhouse and help some of the team’s younger arms with their transition to the MLB, such as he did with Marco Gonzales last season. On the field, LeBlanc can continue to start or shift to a bullpen role if need be later in the year.

MIKE LEAKE

It’s difficult to preview Mike Leake’s upcoming season with the Mariners because he may not be in Seattle for much longer. Leake’s name had previously been mentioned in talks with San Diego, though nothing has come of that for quite some time. However, it appears that the M’s have kept him available and that other teams view him as a fallback plan depending on where Dallas Keuchel winds up in free agency.

Given how slow the free agent market has developed, it seems that Leake will be heading to Peoria to participate in Spring Training activities for the Mariners in the meantime. This has suddenly made Leake – an otherwise “boring” player – one of the team’s most intriguing names heading into next week, as his status could have a significant impact on the futures of Erik Swanson and Justus Sheffield.

Though Leake lacks the flashiness of many starting pitchers on the open market, he’s been one of the most consistent #3/#4 pitchers in the MLB. Despite posting an underwhelming 4.14 FIP in 2018, Leake never missed a start and finished the year with 185.2 innings pitched. Ultimately, he was worth 2.3 fWAR, tied for the third-best mark of his career and 55th among qualified starters last season.

He’s a valuable pitcher, not just to other teams but to the Mariners themselves, who certainly won’t shed any tears if they fail to deal him this Spring. Leake can help them win games this season and still be able to maintain similar – if not better – trade value by July or August.

MARCO GONZALES

The journey back from Tommy John surgery in 2016 has been tough for Marco Gonzales, but now entering his third year removed from the procedure, the 26-year-old southpaw is looking to cement himself as one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. In fact, for most of the 2018 season, he was.

Up until a disastrous month of August that negatively inflated his overall numbers, Gonzales posted a 3.35 FIP with an opponent wOBA of .297 in 125.2 innings pitched. When August reared its ugly head, Gonzales struggled through four starts and wound up on the disabled list with a neck injury that sidelined him until mid-September.

Upon Gonzales’ return, however, the lefty got back on track and finished with a 2.73 FIP in his final four starts. This was a big step for Gonzales to take and he did so flawlessly, giving himself a huge confidence boost heading into the upcoming season.

Despite the trade of James Paxton, the Mariners aren’t looking for Gonzales to suddenly step up and fill that void. Instead, look for the M’s to encourage Gonzales to continue making strides in his overall development and establish himself atop their rotation for years to come, when they intend on contending.

Fans should be very excited about Gonzales’ future, though. His amazing turnaround last season was exactly what Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners were banking on when they acquired him from the Cardinals in 2017, and his best years appear to be on the horizon.