Seattle Mariners: The flaws in the Robinson Canó rumors

Unless you’ve been living under a rock a la Patrick Star these past two days, you’re well aware of the rumors that indicate Robinson Canó is heading elsewhere this Winter.

While listening to offers and potentially parting ways with Canó makes sense for the Mariners’ current position, it’s definitely far from a perfect plan.

Robinson Canó is a great player, and perhaps even a future Hall of Famer. He is also scheduled to be severely overpaid into his early 40s. The Mariners have set themselves a new window for contention in either 2020 or 2021, in which Canó 37 and 38 years of age respectively. These all don’t really bode well for both his future and Seattle’s. Reportedly, the M’s are looking to jump the gun a little and look to shed a bit more than half of his salary off their books for the next five years.

I just don’t see it happening. Yeah, it’s nice there have been talks and names such as Jacoby Ellsbury and Jay Bruce have been thrown around to offset some of the money, but the reality of a deal coming to a fruition seems well out of reach. Unlike Ellsbury and Bruce, Canó is still playing at a high level at his age.

Before you start breaking your keyboard telling me how he’s a “cheater,” let’s look at him solely from a statistical perspective. Despite missing 80 games last year, Canó was a three-win player per FanGraphs, which landed him third amongst all Mariners hitters. In a full season, Canó could have realistically wound up with an fWAR north of 5.5, which is superstar territory.

In saying that, Canó isn’t your typical salary dump type. Defensive regression aside, Canó has been an ageless wonder at the plate and significantly changes the makeup of a ballclub in a positive manner. No matter how you look at it, Canó is an incredibly valuable piece and should absolutely be treated as such. The contract is bad, but the player is far from it.

So let’s say that the Mariners were to chip in about $10 million each year, making him a $14 million AAV player for any potential suitor. That’s one hell of a bargain for a player that’s shown very little signs of slowing down any time soon. There are clearly other teams that still believe in Canó, given the reported “aggressiveness” shown by the likes of the Mets in early trade talks. Therefore, any idea that involves including Edwin Díaz or Mitch Haniger in order to sway a team to take on Canó’s contract for a minimal return is absolutely bogus, unrealistic, and a complete waste of time.

With Félix Hernández and Juan Nicasio coming off the books after the 2019 season, and James Paxton and Mike Zunino now in the AL East, the Mariners aren’t strapped for cash and don’t necessarily have to dump Canó for pennies on the dollar. I know it, you know it, and most importantly, Jerry Dipoto knows it. The Mariners aren’t desperate to get rid of Canó, and they’re most certainly not selling low on one of their extremely attractive pieces just to shave off half of his contract.

For Seattle, Canó’s value on their roster heavily outweighs the value of paying nearly half his contract to play elsewhere, especially if it costs them a young player that would otherwise net them a huge return in a separate, solo deal. It’s just not happening. I understand the panic of the Mariners’ fanbase that these rumors have caused and the “Mariners are dumb” narrative, but the kind of deal Dan O’Dowd proposed wouldn’t be allowed on MLB The Show ’19  even with the trade sliders turned all the way up.

Furthermore, any idea that even hints at Díaz or Haniger’s inclusion to “nudge [insert team here] in the right direction” is comedy and should absolutely be ignored. Even if Dipoto somehow felt determined to make such a decision (he wouldn’t), I have a very hard time believing that ownership would even allow it. That will never, ever happen.

I honestly just think all of this has been overblown. I also find it convenient that the two teams rumored to be in touch with Seattle on Canó are the New York Mets and Yankees, who reside in a sports news market notorious for stirring the pot and cleverly bending narratives. I do believe there have been talks between the teams, but anything that goes beyond Canó is either completely falsified or entirely one-sided. Given that Dipoto’s regime is known for being a tight-lipped group, any leaks revolving around them are more than likely coming from another club.

Say what you will about the Mariners and their history, Jerry Dipoto isn’t a moron. A Canó trade is very realistic, but the proposals and information we’ve been told is first grade fiction.