Seattle Mariners: James Paxton Trade Profile, Houston Edition

Yeah, I know, you don’t want the Mariners to trade James Paxton to the hated division rival Houston Astros. Yes, it would suck to see him in the division. But it very well could be for the best.

Honestly, the idea of Houston being a trade fit for the Mariners ace James Paxton had hardly crossed my mind. Sure, they have the prospect depth to make it happen, but the Astros rotation is stacked, right?

Well with Dallas Kecuhel likely to leave in free agency, Lance McCullers undergoing Tommy John Surgery, and the possibility of Charlie Morton signing elsewhere, perhaps not. If the Astros lose their 2 free agent starters, they should reasonably be able to replace them. Of course, a guy like Colin McHugh is a very good starter in his own right, and the Astros have been great at identifying untapped talent.

We know the Astros have been linked to Yankees pitcher Sonny Gray, but a recent tweet from Ken Rosenthal may reveal that the Astros have their eyes on bigger game:

We have already briefly touched on the Astros as a trade partner here, so there is very little need to dive too deep into the fit. Instead, let’s focus on the potential package.

As mentioned in the linked article above, Astros’ OF Kyle Tucker would be the obvious prize of their farm system. But as we said, it is probably a pipe dream. Personally, I would do Tucker for Paxton straight up, but the Astros would likely balk.

The Astros would also be highly unlikely to part ways with Forest Whitley, their top pitching prospect. Whitley already has 2, 65-grade pitches (20-80 scale) plus 2 more above average offerings. Whitley was suspended 50 games for violating Minor League Baseballs drug policy but is a potential number 1 who will pitch the entire 2019 season as 21-year-old.

This is where things get a little interesting. If the Mariners insist on getting back a player with MLB experience, Derek Fisher makes some sense. The former highly touted prospect has 95 games under his belt and things haven’t gone well.

In 252 PAs, Fisher is slashing .196/.274/.369 with a whopping 38.1% strikeout rate. Fisher may have 30/30 potential but is just to “swing-and-miss” to be the headliner. Tony Kemp is a nice player, but his profile is awfully similar to Dee Gordon‘s and Mallex Smith‘s but with a tad bit more power.

Still, Kemp hit .263/.351/.392 in 2018 with decent defense in all 3 OF spots and second base. However, the Astros prospects most likely to be dealt in the deal are close to MLB ready, so Dipoto may be willing to wait a bit to get the best group of players he can.

With all that being said, it is difficult to find easy pieces in this trade puzzle. But at the end of the day, here is what we have come up with:

The “headliner” of the deal is probably Yordan Alvarez, the 21-year-old, LHH outfielder. Alvarez has a short, compact swing that generates solid power. His short-swing and solid approach make him a good bet to hit for average at the big leagues. A possible .300/.350/.500 type of hitter, Alvarez will need to hit his way to the big leagues. At 6’5″, 225 lbs, he is a surprisingly good athlete but has average at best foot speed. A below-average arm limits his options to left field and first base, but he should hit enough to profile at either spot.

Next on the list is Corbin Martin, a 23-year-old RHP. Martin had a great season in 2018, pitching mostly in AA ball. In his 25 appearances, Martin posted a solid 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, a 9.0 K/BB rate, and an opponents BA of .199.

Martin’s fastball sits at 92 mph, but he can hit 97 on occasion. Martin also has a wipeout slider, which he uses to get plenty of strikeouts. In addition to his two plus pitches, Martin also shows a curveball that flashes above average and a changeup that should be a 4th quality pitch.

Finally, the Mariners address their need for catching. Thankfully, the Astros have exactly what the Mariners are looking for in Garrett Stubbs. Stubbs absolutely raked at AAA in 2018, slashing .310/.382/.455 in 84 games.

A defensive first catcher, Stubbs earns high marks for his arm and pitch blocking. Stubbs is a very good athlete, especially for a catcher. He has the foot speed to occasionally play in the OF and has the arm for right field.

Stubbs may not have the type of power fans have come accustomed to, but his quick left-handed swing and management of the strike zone should make him a tough out for years to come. Offensively, he is reminiscent of John Jaso, though a much better defender.

In our proposed package, the Mariners receive a quality, middle of the order type of bat, a potential #3 starter, and very likely a long-time backup catcher who could be much more. Jerry Dipoto could try to attach a player like Tony Kemp to the deal, but would likely have to take a prospect a little less impactful than Alvarez as their “headliner”.