Seattle Mariners: 3 More Suitors for James Paxton

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

The Cardinals have been rumored to be in on the Paxton sweepstakes, but while fans and pundits have focused on the Yankees and Braves of the world, many are overlooking how well St. Louis lines up with the Mariners. With a nice farm system and a healthy dose of young, controllable MLB talent, the Cards have the pieces to build a very competitive package for Paxton’s services.

That could very well begin with Dakota Hudson, St. Louis’ third-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline, who made a strong impression out of the bullpen at the MLB level in 2018. Hudson’s future, however, will likely be as a starter, and if his 13-3, 2.50 ERA season in Triple-A Memphis is any indication, then his potential is through the roof. For a Mariners rotation that seemingly has very little promise for its future, Hudson could fit perfectly atop its rebuild that will likely see Logan Gilbert and Sam Carlson at some point over the next three or four years.

Former Mariner Tyler O’Neill could also be a name of interest, as well as third baseman Patrick Wisdom. But the best, most realistic offensive prize would certainly be José Martínez, the 30-year-old slugger we had the M’s acquiring in our recent offseason plan. Martínez is still in the pre-arbitration period of his contract, and with Nelson Cruz appearing to be on his way out due in part to financial circumstances on Seattle’s side, he would be the perfect replacement.

Of all Cardinals prospects, my favorite for the M’s is catcher Andrew Knizner. The 23-year-old split his 2018 season at Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis, combining for a .313/.368/.430 slash line over 84 games. Knizner isn’t the most defensively-inclined catcher, but there’s promise in his ability to control a pitching staff and manage games, something Seattle will value over anything he provides offensively. Though Knizner will need more time in Triple-A, he should be in the MLB sooner rather than later, and the M’s could certainly use a promising young catcher after trading Mike Zunino earlier this week.

There are countless names within the Cardinals organization that fit the bill of what Dipoto is looking for that we could go over, making them a very realistic candidate to land Paxton. Pair that with Dipoto’s history of relatively significant deals with St. Louis, there seems to be a lot to work with there.

HOUSTON ASTROS

It’s not very often you see blockbuster deals made between two contending teams, let alone within the same division. But the M’s may not see themselves as a potential contender this year, and a “re-imagining” of their roster could very well concede defeat to the Astros in 2019. If that’s the case, then Jerry Dipoto’s Mariners likely won’t have a very hard time plucking some of the young talent stashed beneath the Astros’ incredibly talented roster, even if it means parting with their ace.

This morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Astros are involved in talks about James Paxton, who has pitched very well in 39.2 innings at Minute Maid Park. With Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel both likely to head elsehwere in free agency this Winter, and Lance McCullers Jr. expected to miss the entire 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, it makes sense for the Astros to be in on one of baseball’s hottest trade targets in the early going.

Given Dipoto’s clear goal of acquiring young, controllable MLB-ready talent in a Paxton deal, the Astros line up very well. While Kyle Tucker makes a lot of sense considering the Astros’ current situation in the outfield, the biggest name the Mariners would likely target is Forrest Whitley. In reality, it’s a bit of a stretch, especially when the Astros would still have two open spots in their rotation to fill even after a Paxton acquisition. But that is – and should be – Seattle’s asking price, especially when dealing with their division rival.

Houston also has a great deal of promising talent about a year or two off from making their Major League debut. Of those names, Corbin Martin and Brandon Bielak stand out the most as potential second or third pieces in a potential deal, respectively. I’m of the firm belief that Seattle must come out of a Paxton trade with at least one significant young starting pitcher, given how weak they are in that department throughout their system, so Martin and/or Bielak would appease that appetite.

Under the circumstances, the Astros will likely be the most complicated team to work out a deal with. I don’t see it happening, but it’s definitely something to keep on.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

The White Sox are reportedly showing interest in Bryce Harper, indicating that they’re ready to make a push into contention with their young core in 2019. If that’s the case, this could be the team that jumps out of nowhere to snag James Paxton. After recently trading aces Chris Sale and José Quintana, going after a Paxton trade seems a bit counterproductive, but with an insanely deep farm system, it’s a move they can afford to make.

Firstly, let’s remember to stay realistic: Eloy Jiménez will not be in this deal. Neither will Michael Kopech, in all likelihood. Dylan Cease is a bit more ideal, but that might even be a stretch at this point. That’s how good this system is. One of those three would surely be Seattle’s asking price, at least at the start. In the end, I see a deal being headlined by two of Chicago’s more overlooked top prospects: Dane Dunning and Zack Collins.

Collins has been mediocre in terms of actually putting bat on ball, only posting a .234 average in 2018, but his ability to get on base and control the zone should not be passed over. In 531 plate appearances, walked 19% of the time while getting on base at a .382 clip. It’s equally impressive as it is concerning. He also struckout 29.8% of the time, something he’s struggled with throughout his professional career. Collins also hasn’t been the most impressive defensive catcher, though he provides an above-average arm able to manage and shut down an opposing team’s running game.

Like Collins, Dunning is on the cusp of making his MLB debut. The 23-year-old righty has started 41 games over the last two years in three different levels of the White Sox’s organization. Dunning, acquired in the Adam Eaton deal with the Nationals, had his season abruptly ended this June after being diagnosed with a sprained right elbow. That should be a cause for concern, but Dunning is a special talent, and if the Mariners are given the opportunity to grab him, they should take it.

Personally speaking, if I could have one player from the White Sox, it would be last year’s fourth overall pick Nick Madrigal. Though that’s likely an unrealistic ask in return for Paxton, Madrigal was such a defensive and offensive stud for Oregon State and continued on that course in 43 games within the White Sox’s system.

Depending on which of their players the White Sox are willing to deal, they could line up as one of the more attractive trade partners for Paxton.