The Seattle Mariners 2019 Offseason Primer

As we at SoDo Mojo prepare our plan for what appears to be a tricky offseason to navigate, we realize our readers could use a one-stop source to assess where their Seattle Mariners stand heading into the offseason.

Fresh off an 89-win but still playoff-less season, the Mariners must make tough decisions regarding how and when they will compete in a tough division and top-heavy league. Opinions concerning that process vary across the entire spectrum of possibilities, and while some of this article will be personally speculative, hopefully after a good perusing, you will come away with your own ideas of what the Mariners can practically accomplish ahead of the 2019 regular season.

Without further, dudes, here is your Seattle Mariners offseason primer.

Pending Free Agents and Players with Options

First, we should determine who is definitely coming off the roster ahead of the offseason.

Feel free to take a look through the Mariners’ year-end 40-man roster yourself. I’ll save you some legwork and note that the following players on the 40-man roster are slated to reach free agency this offseason:

• Nelson Cruz
• Adam Warren
• Zach Duke
• Cameron Maybin
• Andrew Romine
• Gordon Beckham

Additionally, Denard Span has a $12 million mutual option for 2019 and is the only Mariners players with any kind of contract option for next year. Seattle can exercise their half of that option or buy Span out for $4 million with the latter case appearing likely, especially provided Ben Gamel remains on the roster.

Now, we can’t proceed much further without talking about the Mariners’ budget.

Assessing the Budget

For reasons you probably can’t count on one hand, the Mariners are a team that must spend.

Since Jerry Dipoto took over (though not necessarily because of him), the team has ended its years with upwards of $170 million committed to their 40-man roster according to Cot’s Contracts, and that will remain true once the 2018 figures are released.

In the same time frame, the team has opened their seasons with approximately $142 million, $154 million, and $158 million committed to their 25-man roster.

Nelson Cruz represents a big contract coming off the books, but knowing several players are also headed for significant raises in arbitration, Seattle likely is not prepared to cut salary to under 2018 levels. However, that should not create a great issue.

Previously, the team was ready to add money around the trade deadline.

Per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times:

The Mariners don’t seem to have the prospects to pry away a front-line starter or even top-level closer. But they do have the finances to take on more money. “We have the resources,” [Dipoto] said. “And we have been told over and over that if there is something out there we can attain that helps us, then go do it.”

And that was after Alex Colome and Denard Span were brought in.

It does not appear that this sentiment will be rescinded over the offseason, so if spending money will help the team win, then the team will spend money (within reason).

I would not be surprised to see the Mariners open the 2019 season with up to $170 million committed to their 25-man roster. That is a rather sizeable $12 million increase over 2018’s payroll and on the upper end of where we pegged the budget before arbitration numbers were released, but we might not know the extent to which the team is prepared to push the payroll until they actually do it.

Speaking of arbitration though, how much money is on the books next year?

Assessing the Payroll

Guaranteed Money

As things currently stand, the Mariners have roughly $122.5 million committed to:

• Felix Hernandez – $27,857,143
• Robinson Cano – $24,000,000
• Kyle Seager – $19,500,000
• Mike Leake – $16,000,000 ($5,000,000 to be paid by STL)
• Jean Segura – $14,850,000
• Dee Gordon – $13,300,000
• Juan Nicasio – $9,250,000
• Wade LeBlanc – $2,750,000

Add in Denard Span’s $4 million buyout and we’re up to a guaranteed $126.5 million.

Arbitration Projections

On the non-guaranteed side of things, nine players qualify for salary arbitration this offseason with Edwin Diaz missing the Super Two cutoff by just a couple of weeks (phew!).

Here they are listed with their projected salaries per MLB Trade Rumors:

• James Paxton – $9,000,000
• Alex Colome – $7,300,000
• Erasmo Ramirez – $4,400,000
• Mike Zunino – $4,200,000
• Nick Vincent – $3,500,000
• Justin Grimm – $1,600,000
• Chris Herrmann – $1,500,000
• Ryan Cook – $1,000,000
• Roenis Elias – $1,000,000

If all are tendered contracts, these players project to earn $33.5 million in total, meaning that if all are retained, the Mariners figure to have $160 million penciled in for 2019.

This is already quite close to the hypothetical budget; however, not everyone is certain to come back and the organization can shed other obligations or increase the payroll altogether.

Non-Tender Candidates

In case you are unfamiliar with how the non-tender process works, it is simple.

There will come a deadline (usually December 1st or 2nd) whereby teams will have to offer (tender) each of their players a contract. If a team decides not to offer a contract to a player by the deadline, that player will be deemed “non-tendered” and will immediately become a free agent. Typically, only arbitration-eligible players who project to outearn their worth are cut loose in this way.

Considering that, as far as clear non-tender candidates go, the Mariners have four: Erasmo Ramirez, Justin Grimm, Chris Herrmann, and Ryan Cook.

Among the rest of the arbitration-eligible Mariners, James Paxton, Alex Colome, and Mike Zunino are guaranteed to be tendered contracts.

The same could be said of Roenis Elias who will almost certainly be kept around after performing admirably out of the bullpen in 2018.

The one candidate truly on the fence is Nick Vincent who has been quite steady for the Mariners with an ERA+ of 102, 131, and 109 in each of the past three seasons, respectively.

He is a non-tender candidate, but because he is not overly expensive for what he is, it is possible that he will have enough value to be traded.

Players Out of Options

I do not promise to provide exhaustive lists in the next couple sections, but I will do my best as I pull information mainly from Roster Resource.

Currently, the following Mariners (who figure to stick with the team through the offseason) will come to camp out of minor league options next year:

• Marco Gonzales
• Alex Colome
• Dan Vogelbach
• Kristopher Negron
• Sam Tuivalala*
• Shawn Armstrong
• Nick Rumbelow
• Roenis Elias

Marco Gonzales and Alex Colome we need not worry about.

All signs point to Kristopher Negron being next year’s utility man and to Roenis Elias being a low-leverage/spot-starting long-relief pitcher, so they appear safe as well.

And Sam Tuivalala earns an asterisk because he actually figures to be ready to go by May or June, not spring training.

Thus, the players who may be affected by their lack of minor league options before the regular season begins are Dan Vogelbach, Shawn Armstrong, and Nick Rumbelow.

Vogelbach should be given a long look and a chance to stick on next year’s roster provided that he is not traded.

Because of his strong late-season showing and outstanding AAA numbers in 2018, Shawn Armstrong is destined to make next year’s bullpen out of spring training unless he severely underperforms in his early showings.

Nick Rumbelow is in the same boat as Armstrong but figures to start behind him on the depth chart because of his less impressive performance. There is a provision to allow players who miss entire years due to injury an extra option year, but because Rumbelow technically did not miss the entire 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery (he pitched 1 AAA inning) I am not confident that this rule would apply. Expect him to be on the bubble.

Rule 5 Eligible Players

Right now, the only minor leaguer I would guarantee to make the jump onto the Mariners’ 40-man roster this offseason is Braden Bishop.

Bishop is one of the Mariners top prospects and their closest outfield prospect to the majors. He figures to debut in 2019, and given his age/experience and strong if abbreviated showing in AA in 2018, he could easily be scooped up in the Rule 5 Draft if he is not protected.

I would think Joey Curletta is the next likeliest candidate to be added. First-base prospects aren’t often taken in the Rule 5 Draft because they are hard to roster for a full season, but Curletta could be considered one of the best bats in the Mariners’ system after his standout 2018 and has a good case to be protected because of that and his proximity to the majors.

Behind these two, there is a chance that relievers Art Warren and Matt Tenuta are protected as well.

Warren’s addition would follow the precedent set by Dipoto’s protection of Thyago Vieira a couple years ago, yet he was particularly wild in 2018 and was shelved for an extended amount of time due to injury. Both factors could allow him to slip through the Rule 5 Draft, but his stuff could play in the majors right now on his good days.

Matt Tenuta has taken time to adjust to High-A and AA ball in recent years but eventually adjusted exceedingly well, making his initial struggles in AAA less cause for concern. The lefty really got going in AA this year before that promotion as he posted a 2.98 ERA and 2.28 FIP in 45.1 IP over 28 appearances with 52 strikeouts to just 13 unintentional walks. Given the Mariners’ lack of impact left-handed relievers, Tenuta could be a candidate to “come out of nowhere” mid-season and produce at the major-league level, which may lead to his protection this winter.

Additionally, the following minor leaguers are Rule 5 eligible: C Joe DeCarlo, C Juan Camacho, INF Chris Mariscal, 3B Logan Taylor, 3B Eugene Helder, OF Ian Miller, OF Anthony Jimenez, OF Ariel Sandoval, OF Chuck Taylor, OF Luis Liberato, OF Ronald Rosario, SP Anthony Misiewicz, SP Nick Wells, SP Ryne Inman, RP Matt Walker, RP Darin Gillies, RP Kyle Wilcox

Among these players, I think Joe DeCarlo, Ian Miller, Chuck Taylor, Anthony Misiewicz, and Kyle Wilcox appear to have the strongest outside shots at making the 40-man roster. However, each comes with legitimate reasons to be passed on both on the roster and during the draft, so their Rule 5 eligibility may not be as pertinent to Jerry Dipoto and the organization.

Summary

40-Man Roster

From the 40-man roster, the Mariners will lose Nelson Cruz, Adam Warren, Zach Duke, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Romine, and Gordon Beckham to free agency.

Denard Span is not likely to return.

Erasmo Ramirez, Chris Herrmann, Justin Grimm, and Ryan Cook are non-tender candidates, and if Nick Vincent is not in that group, he may well be traded.

Meanwhile, Juan Nicasio and Braden Bishop will be added to the 40-man roster and minor leaguer Joey Curletta and possibly others could find their way on as well.

In all, the Mariners are poised to lose 10-12 players off their 40-man roster and add at least 2 or 3 back, meaning we could expect 10 or so fresh faces brought in from elsewhere this offseason (not to mention minor league additions).

Likely 40-man to build from: 28 – 32

Payroll/Budget

Assuming Denard Span’s option is bought out and the likely non-tender candidates are, in fact, non-tendered along with Nick Vincent finding a new home, the Mariners figure to have roughly $155 million committed to their Opening Day 25-man roster.

Considering the projected payroll, its recent trajectory, and the Mariners’ probable willingness to increase it, there figures to be at least a rough maintenance of 2018’s Opening Day 25-man payroll of $158 million and a looser year-end 40-man budget of at least $175 million.

Likely 25-man payroll: $160 – 170 million (Opening Day)

Likely 40-man budget: $175 – 190 million (Year-end)

Trades

The Mariners don’t have high-end talent in the minors, but their top guys do have value and could fetch a solid building block if leveraged properly.

Some talent currently on the major league roster should also draw interest this trade season if made available. Namely, Alex Colome could provide the Mariners their best bet to both shed salary and receive player capital in return while not massively downgrading their 2019 product.

A minor flurry of trades — possibly including one of Nick Vincent — should be expected from Jerry Dipoto at this point too.

Likely trade targets: Backup C, 1B, CF

Free Agents

Here is something I haven’t really touched on: free agents.

Although they will reach out to a bevy of free agents, the Mariners don’t seem like players to shell out big money this offseason, considering the budget and payroll I’ve estimated as well as Dipoto’s recent history. However, they could redefine what they consider “big money” in an attempt to compete, making mid-rotation starters like Nathan Eovaldi or Hyun-Jin Ryu not out of the question for instance.

Likely free agent targets: Mid-rotation SP, Nelson Cruz

And that’s all, folks.