The Seattle Mariners 2019 Offseason Primer

Assessing the Budget

For reasons you probably can’t count on one hand, the Mariners are a team that must spend.

Since Jerry Dipoto took over (though not necessarily because of him), the team has ended its years with upwards of $170 million committed to their 40-man roster according to Cot’s Contracts, and that will remain true once the 2018 figures are released.

In the same time frame, the team has opened their seasons with approximately $142 million, $154 million, and $158 million committed to their 25-man roster.

Nelson Cruz represents a big contract coming off the books, but knowing several players are also headed for significant raises in arbitration, Seattle likely is not prepared to cut salary to under 2018 levels. However, that should not create a great issue.

Previously, the team was ready to add money around the trade deadline.

Per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times:

The Mariners don’t seem to have the prospects to pry away a front-line starter or even top-level closer. But they do have the finances to take on more money. “We have the resources,” [Dipoto] said. “And we have been told over and over that if there is something out there we can attain that helps us, then go do it.”

And that was after Alex Colome and Denard Span were brought in.

It does not appear that this sentiment will be rescinded over the offseason, so if spending money will help the team win, then the team will spend money (within reason).

I would not be surprised to see the Mariners open the 2019 season with up to $170 million committed to their 25-man roster. That is a rather sizeable $12 million increase over 2018’s payroll and on the upper end of where we pegged the budget before arbitration numbers were released, but we might not know the extent to which the team is prepared to push the payroll until they actually do it.

Speaking of arbitration though, how much money is on the books next year?

Assessing the Payroll

Guaranteed Money

As things currently stand, the Mariners have roughly $122.5 million committed to:

• Felix Hernandez – $27,857,143
• Robinson Cano – $24,000,000
• Kyle Seager – $19,500,000
• Mike Leake – $16,000,000 ($5,000,000 to be paid by STL)
• Jean Segura – $14,850,000
• Dee Gordon – $13,300,000
• Juan Nicasio – $9,250,000
• Wade LeBlanc – $2,750,000

Add in Denard Span’s $4 million buyout and we’re up to a guaranteed $126.5 million.

Arbitration Projections

On the non-guaranteed side of things, nine players qualify for salary arbitration this offseason with Edwin Diaz missing the Super Two cutoff by just a couple of weeks (phew!).

Here they are listed with their projected salaries per MLB Trade Rumors:

• James Paxton – $9,000,000
• Alex Colome – $7,300,000
• Erasmo Ramirez – $4,400,000
• Mike Zunino – $4,200,000
• Nick Vincent – $3,500,000
• Justin Grimm – $1,600,000
• Chris Herrmann – $1,500,000
• Ryan Cook – $1,000,000
• Roenis Elias – $1,000,000

If all are tendered contracts, these players project to earn $33.5 million in total, meaning that if all are retained, the Mariners figure to have $160 million penciled in for 2019.

This is already quite close to the hypothetical budget; however, not everyone is certain to come back and the organization can shed other obligations or increase the payroll altogether.

Non-Tender Candidates

In case you are unfamiliar with how the non-tender process works, it is simple.

There will come a deadline (usually December 1st or 2nd) whereby teams will have to offer (tender) each of their players a contract. If a team decides not to offer a contract to a player by the deadline, that player will be deemed “non-tendered” and will immediately become a free agent. Typically, only arbitration-eligible players who project to outearn their worth are cut loose in this way.

Considering that, as far as clear non-tender candidates go, the Mariners have four: Erasmo Ramirez, Justin Grimm, Chris Herrmann, and Ryan Cook.

Among the rest of the arbitration-eligible Mariners, James Paxton, Alex Colome, and Mike Zunino are guaranteed to be tendered contracts.

The same could be said of Roenis Elias who will almost certainly be kept around after performing admirably out of the bullpen in 2018.

The one candidate truly on the fence is Nick Vincent who has been quite steady for the Mariners with an ERA+ of 102, 131, and 109 in each of the past three seasons, respectively.

He is a non-tender candidate, but because he is not overly expensive for what he is, it is possible that he will have enough value to be traded.

Players Out of Options

I do not promise to provide exhaustive lists in the next couple sections, but I will do my best as I pull information mainly from Roster Resource.

Currently, the following Mariners (who figure to stick with the team through the offseason) will come to camp out of minor league options next year:

• Marco Gonzales
• Alex Colome
• Dan Vogelbach
• Kristopher Negron
• Sam Tuivalala*
• Shawn Armstrong
• Nick Rumbelow
• Roenis Elias

Marco Gonzales and Alex Colome we need not worry about.

All signs point to Kristopher Negron being next year’s utility man and to Roenis Elias being a low-leverage/spot-starting long-relief pitcher, so they appear safe as well.

And Sam Tuivalala earns an asterisk because he actually figures to be ready to go by May or June, not spring training.

Thus, the players who may be affected by their lack of minor league options before the regular season begins are Dan Vogelbach, Shawn Armstrong, and Nick Rumbelow.

Vogelbach should be given a long look and a chance to stick on next year’s roster provided that he is not traded.

Because of his strong late-season showing and outstanding AAA numbers in 2018, Shawn Armstrong is destined to make next year’s bullpen out of spring training unless he severely underperforms in his early showings.

Nick Rumbelow is in the same boat as Armstrong but figures to start behind him on the depth chart because of his less impressive performance. There is a provision to allow players who miss entire years due to injury an extra option year, but because Rumbelow technically did not miss the entire 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery (he pitched 1 AAA inning) I am not confident that this rule would apply. Expect him to be on the bubble.

Rule 5 Eligible Players

Right now, the only minor leaguer I would guarantee to make the jump onto the Mariners’ 40-man roster this offseason is Braden Bishop.

Bishop is one of the Mariners top prospects and their closest outfield prospect to the majors. He figures to debut in 2019, and given his age/experience and strong if abbreviated showing in AA in 2018, he could easily be scooped up in the Rule 5 Draft if he is not protected.

I would think Joey Curletta is the next likeliest candidate to be added. First-base prospects aren’t often taken in the Rule 5 Draft because they are hard to roster for a full season, but Curletta could be considered one of the best bats in the Mariners’ system after his standout 2018 and has a good case to be protected because of that and his proximity to the majors.

Behind these two, there is a chance that relievers Art Warren and Matt Tenuta are protected as well.

Warren’s addition would follow the precedent set by Dipoto’s protection of Thyago Vieira a couple years ago, yet he was particularly wild in 2018 and was shelved for an extended amount of time due to injury. Both factors could allow him to slip through the Rule 5 Draft, but his stuff could play in the majors right now on his good days.

Matt Tenuta has taken time to adjust to High-A and AA ball in recent years but eventually adjusted exceedingly well, making his initial struggles in AAA less cause for concern. The lefty really got going in AA this year before that promotion as he posted a 2.98 ERA and 2.28 FIP in 45.1 IP over 28 appearances with 52 strikeouts to just 13 unintentional walks. Given the Mariners’ lack of impact left-handed relievers, Tenuta could be a candidate to “come out of nowhere” mid-season and produce at the major-league level, which may lead to his protection this winter.

Additionally, the following minor leaguers are Rule 5 eligible: C Joe DeCarlo, C Juan Camacho, INF Chris Mariscal, 3B Logan Taylor, 3B Eugene Helder, OF Ian Miller, OF Anthony Jimenez, OF Ariel Sandoval, OF Chuck Taylor, OF Luis Liberato, OF Ronald Rosario, SP Anthony Misiewicz, SP Nick Wells, SP Ryne Inman, RP Matt Walker, RP Darin Gillies, RP Kyle Wilcox

Among these players, I think Joe DeCarlo, Ian Miller, Chuck Taylor, Anthony Misiewicz, and Kyle Wilcox appear to have the strongest outside shots at making the 40-man roster. However, each comes with legitimate reasons to be passed on both on the roster and during the draft, so their Rule 5 eligibility may not be as pertinent to Jerry Dipoto and the organization.

Trade Candidates

Don’t expect the Mariners to wildly wheel-and-deal from their MLB roster with their eyes set on competing in the near future.

We can dream on a little retool by trading Paxton and we can hope to find a taker for Dee Gordon, but the reality is that a retool would only start by dealing Paxton and Gordon presently has little trade value. Dealing either one or any similarly impactful/situated player appears unlikely at this moment.

That being said, there are a few notable players who could still reasonably be on the move before the regular season.

We covered Nick Vincent‘s candidacy already, but a more notable reliever could be on the move in Alex Colome.

Colome is a great pitcher, yet he comes with a hefty projected $7.3 million price tag and only two more years of control. He is far from superfluous as a fantastic set-up man with a lengthy track record of success and plenty of closing experience, but his salary could be invested elsewhere while he brings back a couple of prospects or is included in a more creative deal.

Matt Festa could also find himself a new home if the Mariners are able to sell him as a young, controllable MLB-ready reliever with great upside. He wouldn’t be dealt by himself but rather in a package that would presumably net Seattle another MLB-ready player at a different position.

Similarly, Nick Rumbelow could be on the move. As mentioned earlier, he is likely behind Shawn Armstrong on the depth chart right now and is (probably) out of options. A team able to roster middle relief depth like him could bite on his upside in a very minor trade.

Ryon Healy figures to be available as well after a disappointing season. The Mariners are mulling a number of possibilities at first base including shifting Robinson Cano there, and it is hard to see Healy guaranteed a spot in any scenario. He is free to be optioned to the minors, but like Festa, he could be a part of a larger trade package if there is any inkling of interest in him.

Dan Vogelbach appears here due to his lack of minor league options. If the Mariners aren’t committed to giving Vogelbach a real shot to play more-or-less full-time between first base and DH in 2019, it may behoove them to include him in an offseason trade.

Any number of minor leaguers could also be on the move, knowing that Dipoto prefers to build through trades, but if the Mariners make a significant deal centered around farm talent, expect the package to include some combination of Kyle Lewis, Braden Bishop, Joey Curletta, Wyatt Mills, and Ian Miller. Evan White would appear to be an increasingly unlikely trade piece and the team may prefer to hold on to hot starters like Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Michael Plassmeyer, and Josh Stowers, but know that likely no one is untouchable.

Summary

40-Man Roster

From the 40-man roster, the Mariners will lose Nelson Cruz, Adam Warren, Zach Duke, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Romine, and Gordon Beckham to free agency.

Denard Span is not likely to return.

Erasmo Ramirez, Chris Herrmann, Justin Grimm, and Ryan Cook are non-tender candidates, and if Nick Vincent is not in that group, he may well be traded.

Meanwhile, Juan Nicasio and Braden Bishop will be added to the 40-man roster and minor leaguer Joey Curletta and possibly others could find their way on as well.

In all, the Mariners are poised to lose 10-12 players off their 40-man roster and add at least 2 or 3 back, meaning we could expect 10 or so fresh faces brought in from elsewhere this offseason (not to mention minor league additions).

Likely 40-man to build from: 28 – 32

Payroll/Budget

Assuming Denard Span’s option is bought out and the likely non-tender candidates are, in fact, non-tendered along with Nick Vincent finding a new home, the Mariners figure to have roughly $155 million committed to their Opening Day 25-man roster.

Considering the projected payroll, its recent trajectory, and the Mariners’ probable willingness to increase it, there figures to be at least a rough maintenance of 2018’s Opening Day 25-man payroll of $158 million and a looser year-end 40-man budget of at least $175 million.

Likely 25-man payroll: $160 – 170 million (Opening Day)

Likely 40-man budget: $175 – 190 million (Year-end)

Trades

The Mariners don’t have high-end talent in the minors, but their top guys do have value and could fetch a solid building block if leveraged properly.

Some talent currently on the major league roster should also draw interest this trade season if made available. Namely, Alex Colome could provide the Mariners their best bet to both shed salary and receive player capital in return while not massively downgrading their 2019 product.

A minor flurry of trades — possibly including one of Nick Vincent — should be expected from Jerry Dipoto at this point too.

Likely trade targets: Backup C, 1B, CF

Free Agents

Here is something I haven’t really touched on: free agents.

Although they will reach out to a bevy of free agents, the Mariners don’t seem like players to shell out big money this offseason, considering the budget and payroll I’ve estimated as well as Dipoto’s recent history. However, they could redefine what they consider “big money” in an attempt to compete, making mid-rotation starters like Nathan Eovaldi or Hyun-Jin Ryu not out of the question for instance.

Likely free agent targets: Mid-rotation SP, Nelson Cruz

And that’s all, folks.