Seattle Mariners: James Paxton Trade Profile, Be Creative With Lefty

This offseason represents somewhat of a crossroads for the Mariners. A full rebuild is evidently not on the table per comments from Jerry Dipoto, but going all in on the next couple years might not be practical either.

One beaming bright spot for the 2018 Mariners was James Paxton turning in his healthiest season yet. It would have turned out even better if not for a line drive to the arm and a bout with illness, but alas, career-highs in starts and innings pitched wasn’t too shabby from the big lefty. Along the way, he picked up an incredible 16-strikeout night then immediately followed that with an emphatic no-hitter in Toronto — how could you trade a guy like him?

Ideally, you don’t. But the Mariners are not in an ideal situation. Some of the roster is great; some of the roster is not great. A lot of it is in between or could go either way. There is plenty of heavy lifting that can be done this offseason to help get the franchise on track and that entails deciding what a realistic timeline to the postseason is.

Everybody wants to win with James Paxton, but he only has two years of arbitration left before he reaches free agency. His injury history, age, and the fact that he is a Scott Boras client suggest he won’t be a great extension candidate and the Mariners very well may have to let him walk in free agency when the time comes.

Again, everybody wants to win with Paxton, yet the Astros seemingly have a stranglehold on the division while the Athletics arrived a year early and seem quite legitimate in most respects. Across the country, the Rays seem poised to be in hot pursuit of a wild card spot as well.

The immediate future is packed with great teams at the top of the league and you can’t discount every team that finished behind Seattle either. The Mariners could be quite a good team in 2019, but it’s an uphill climb all the way and that could mean the front office doesn’t believe they should pile onto their roster over the next couple of years.

That means James Paxton could be available this offseason.

The Value

Ahead of the season, our own Colby Patnode put together a nice list of 5 trade packages for James Paxton had the Mariners been poised to sell. The value of a lot of those names have shifted dramatically, but it is worth a read to get an initial sense of what Paxton could bring in.

Obviously, at this point, Paxton comes with just the two years of control and while he threw some incredible ball games in 2018, home runs hurt him and he ultimately finished with a good but not great 3.76 ERA over a career-high 160.1 IP.

Still, he is the kind of starter that could fit on any competitive team. A limited track record due to various injuries may knock his value a little, but he has top shelf stuff and despite some inconsistency in his bottom line, teams won’t shy away from his potential.

A couple of recent trades should define Paxton’s value on the trade market.

Prior to 2017, the Mariners dealt OF Mallex Smith, SP Ryan Yarbrough, and SS Carlos Vargas to the Rays for two years of SP Drew Smyly.

Smyly struggled in the ERA department in 2016 due to a high home run total but he threw a career-high in innings while displaying good control and solid strikeout stuff (sound familiar?). The Mariners were betting on things breaking better for him and knew they had just two years to see if they could.

Mallex Smith — 77-minutes after being acquired by the Mariners — headlined the Rays’ return as a speedy outfielder with strong minor-league batting lines. His plate approach was rather ideal and allowed him to consistently use his wheels and project as a speed-first fourth outfielder at worst. He slotted in as the Braves’ 17th best prospect at the end of 2015 according to MLB Pipeline as there were some questions about how well he would hold up against more advanced pitching, but before an injury cut his 2016 MLB debut short, his bat did start to come around.

Ryan Yarbrough lacked the same pedigree yet put up great AA stats in 2016 with pristine command of mostly average stuff. Don’t let his initial MLB success cloud your opinion though. He was a 25-year-old finesse lefty in AA with an increasingly likely, but not guaranteed, chance to stick in the rotation.

Carlos Vargas hit well in Rookie ball as a shortstop who probably wouldn’t stick at short, but like basically any Rookie ball trade piece, he was essentially a throw-in with upside.

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More recently, the Astros dealt SP Joe Musgrove, 3B Colin Moran, RP Michael Feliz and OF Jason Martin to the Pirates for two years of SP Gerrit Cole.

Like Smyly, Cole didn’t turn in his best season results-wise immediately before his trade, but he still came with enough value to demand a top prospect from interested teams.

This deal was notable not only for Cole’s name value swapping hands but also for the fact that the Astros didn’t end up surrendering any of their top prospects to get him.

Instead, the Pirates opted for a more MLB-ready talent.

Joe Musgrove, for instance, had more than 170 IP to his name prior to being dealt. Although the results were not too impressive overall, he was solid in several regards. A full-time move to the bullpen seemed probable, but he still carried starting potential, especially with a change of scenery.

Colin Moran also made his debut well before being dealt (for the second time), but he came with much less MLB experience than Musgrove. His stock dipped with a rough AAA season in 2016; however, on the heels his best minor league performance yet, he was trending back upward in 2017 and once again looked like a potential average regular.

Michael Feliz had been in the majors more-or-less full-time since 2016 as a relief-only arm, yet his results consistently failed to match his abundant raw ability and he fell on the Astros depth chart enough to become a trade piece.

Jason Martin was the only real prospect here and despite his best efforts, he lagged behind a swath of position player talent in Houston’s system. He had hit at every level through his first foray into AA, but without much upside over that of a fourth outfielder, he was not highly regarded enough to be taken in 2017’s Rule 5 draft and was passed on to Pittsburgh.

These were both fair swaps for good-to-great pitchers with two years of control remaining in my opinion.

In their eyes, the Rays dealt for an everyday outfielder, a backend starter, and a lottery ticket infielder.

The Pirates didn’t receive a player with quite as much upside as Mallex Smith, but their return was surely thought to include an MLB-ready starter, a regular third baseman, a high-powered wild card reliever, and a fourth outfielder whose projection is based more on numbers than tools.

James Paxton is similar to Drew Smyly in terms of health and consistency of results, but he is also closer to Gerrit Cole in terms of talent and production. Considering these comparisons and the Mariners’ current position going into 2019, it would seem that a return for Paxton should be greater than that which netted Smyly in terms of value but be more geared toward MLB-ready talent like the package that landed Cole.

The Destination

As expected, count rebuilding teams out on Paxton.

Pretty much every team that expects to win in 2019 should express some level of interest in him though.

However, teams probably looking at a longer timeline like the Twins, Angels, maybe Phillies and Giants (if they try to win) may not be as eager to add just a 2-year asset.

Organizations with strong, controllable top-of-the-rotation talent may find it wiser to invest their resources in areas of greater need as well. This could mean the Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Nationals, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, and Rockies may not pursue him as strongly as other teams.

And let’s be honest, there is no way that Jerry Dipoto deals Paxton to the A’s, so count them out too.

That leaves the Yankees, Braves, and Brewers as very likely in on James Paxton.

The Yankees

The lineup is mostly locked in for 2019, but while Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka are great up top, the rotation could use someone to slot in right behind them.

As the defacto ace of the Mariners’ staff for the past two years at least, Paxton is well-poised to step into the 3rd spot of the Yankees’ rotation, and New York certainly has the minor league talent to pull off a trade.

Paxton is projected to earn about $9 million in arbitration but that is a relative bargain and is extremely fitting if the Yankees can offload Sonny Gray who is also projected to earn about $9 million in arbitration.

However, as is typical, the Yankees have some money to work with and may rather consider Paxton or another trade as a backup plan to signing top free agent Patrick Corbin.

Fit: Good

The Braves

Like a certain AL West rival, the Braves seemed to arrive one year early in 2018, as they captured a division title over the heavily favored Nationals and hot starting Phillies.

They have plenty of promising young pitchers in the pipeline, but none is guaranteed to match Paxton’s 2019 output. Again, Patrick Corbin may factor in here, and again, Paxton figures to be a solid short-term alternative.

The team is set to compete right now and projecting Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, and Kevin Gausman to follow James Paxton smacks me as a legitimate playoff-caliber rotation. On the other side of things, the Mariners’ pitching-starved system could receive a huge shot in the arm from some package of the Braves’ enviable collection of young arms.

Fit: Great 

The Brewers

The Brewers emerged as a serious contender in 2018 thanks in no small part to Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, yet their rotation left something to be desired.

Part of that was due to the absence of staff ace Jimmy Nelson, but even including him, they aren’t flush with top-end starting talent. Paxton might not deserve an “ace” label because he doesn’t log high innings totals, yet he would figure to become the Brewers’ top starter if acquired with a repeat of 2017 not guaranteed for Nelson.

Fit: Great

Of course, this is a very abbreviated list, but, hey, do you want me to ramble about three teams or like twelve?

The Trade

The Mariners trade SP James Paxton to the Brewers for OF Keon Broxton and SP Corbin Burnes

The immediate return for the Mariners is an MLB-ready center fielder in Keon Broxton.

Broxton is still looked on as a raw, high-ceiling talent going into his age-29 season, but his time could be running out in Milwaukee, as he hasn’t hit much in the majors (93 wRC+) over almost 800 plate appearances and is out of minor league options.

He projects quite well as a fourth outfielder, but in a deal for James Paxton, he should be on the table. That is particularly true as the Mariners may covet him in trade talks.

Broxton has four years of control left and is a great, perhaps elite, defender in center field. He takes his walks (10.9% career BB%), mixes great power (.200 ISO) with speed (29.7 ft/s sprint speed), and has actually hit LHPs well in the majors (111 wRC+) which is an area of the Mariners’ lineup that could use a boost.

If acquired, he would likely be handed the starting center field job.

MLB Comp: Keon Broxton at this point but maybe Melvin Upton Jr. (B.J. Upton era)

No offense to Broxton — starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (25) is the obvious headliner for the Mariners here.

Burnes was a top-50 prospect for Milwaukee and their #2 prospect coming into 2018. He eventually exhausted his prospect status as he shined in the majors during both the regular season and postseason, but he did so as a reliever.

Scouts have long recognized the possibility of this move, but the Brewers definitely haven’t settled on it, as they will have Burnes work as a starter again in 2019. However, he really struggled upon his promotion to AAA in 2018 when he posted a 4.96 ERA as a starter, but he and his bonkers spin rates may have had trouble adjusting to the thin air up in AAA Colorado Springs.

He carried a much more palatable 3.73 ERA in 41 IP as the visiting starter and his stuff looks as good as advertised. If acquired, he would have a shot to make the club out of spring training.

MLB Comp: (A healthy) Garrett Richards

I can’t justify asking for any more than this.

Keon Broxton probably isn’t worth anymore more than Mallex Smith in terms of trade value, but Burnes would easily be the best “prospect” dealt between this trade and those for Drew Smyly and Gerrit Cole despite seemingly taking a step back as a starter in 2018.

In that sense, I would categorize this more as a starting ask than a realistic return, but it is the kind of value that it might take to pry Paxton away from the Mariners in the event that they expect to grab a playoff spot in 2019.

Both Broxton and Burnes look like they have great floors as a high-quality fourth outfielder and late-inning reliever, respectively, and they pair them with obviously high ceilings. The Brewers have kept these guys around for a reason and would rightfully be hesitant to trade ten years of them for two years of a starter.

However, that’s the price you talk down from in order to line up James Paxton, Jimmy Nelson, and Jhoulys Chacin in 2019.

If Nelson and Chacin turn in something close to their most recent performances, that is a formidable top three and still leaves room for arms like Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, or any of 2018’s array of other options to step up.