Seattle Mariners: 5 Offseason Predictions

The Mariners’ 2018 campaign ended last Sunday, and with that, the offseason is close to kicking into full gear.

There is a lot of mystery surrounding the Mariners’ offseason plan. From Scott Servais and Jerry Dipoto’s press conference on Monday, we did learn that they have no plans to tear the team down and trade from its young core headlined by Mitch Haniger, Edwin Díaz, and Marco Gonzales. That still leaves quite a few options on the table, including a possible soft reboot.

There is, however, a clear idea of which path they are taking: to compete in 2019. After winning 89 games and still, somehow, missing the postseason by eight games, the Mariners believe they are right on the edge of contention. Both Dipoto and Servais mentioned building a team that doesn’t just reach a Wild Card game, but can win its division.

Accomplishing that will take some work this offseason, with the Astros and Athletics going strong, and the Angels and Rangers not too far off from contention themselves. Will they be able to be that team? Time will tell. What happens in the interim will greatly shift the needle one way or another, determining if the Mariners will remain a middle-of-the-road ballclub or finally be able to transcend their stasis of mediocrity.

Here are my five predictions for the upcoming offseason.

MANNY ACTA WILL ACCEPT A MANAGERIAL POSITION ELSEWHERE

Manny Acta has been with the Mariners for the entirety of Scott Servais’ tenure with the team, serving as their third base coach for the first two years and later becoming their bench coach in 2018. He’s been one of the few constants within their coaching staff and has had a relatively positive affect on Servais over these past three years.

Last year, Acta interviewed for two managerial openings with the Phillies and the Mets. It seemed that Acta was going to depart after reports of the Mets viewing him as a “serious candidate.” Instead, the Mets went with Mickey Callaway, and Acta returned to Seattle and became the Mariners’ new bench coach following Tim Bogar’s departure.

With Acta getting back into the swing of things in the dugout this season, now seems to be the time for him to finally manage a ballclub again. Despite a career 372-518 record as a manager, Acta is often revered as one of the better minds and personalities in baseball. He should figure to be one of the top targets for manager-less teams over the next month or so.

As of now, the Angels, Rangers, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Twins have openings, with more possibly on the way. Given the amount of experience he’s had with the American League over the last decade, I think he’ll land with one of the five teams mentioned.

PAYROLL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LUXURY TAX THAN EXPECTED

In Colby’s payroll-centric article, he notes that the Mariners’ end-of-year payroll is roughly $45 million off from the luxury tax. The Mariners have never been a team to push the luxury tax at any point in their history, but Chairman John Stanton has occasionally mentioned his willingness to give Jerry Dipoto financial freedom to build a contender.

However, the Mariners have seemingly set a yearly cap for themselves at around $160-$170 million, appearing reluctant to burn cash in the free agent market in that time. Perhaps an 89-win season can change that strategy, especially in a free agent class as rich as this one when the Mariners’ only shot of adding significant talent is through that medium.

When the Mariners were still leading the second AL Wild Card position at the trade deadline, Dipoto had mentioned having a flexible payroll. Of course, that was also assisted in part by Robinson Canó leaving roughly $12 million on the table due to his suspension, though most of it went to Álex Colomé and Denard Span. The Mariners ultimately didn’t add a significant amount of payroll at the deadline, though that likely indicates where the market was at and what fit and didn’t fit for the Mariners in terms of talent.

If the Mariners truly wish to build a team able to contend for a division title in the AL West, they will absolutely have to spend more money. Now, the Mariners have no chance of inking Bryce Harper or Manny Machado to a deal, but a Nelson Cruz extension and  — for example — an A.J. Pollock signing would start to mount up the numbers real fast. Adding a starting pitcher of the Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel variety would also do quite a bit of damage.

No matter what their strategy is going into free agency, it has to involve an uptick in payroll. I don’t see them reaching the $200 million threshold, but $180-$185 million seems like a strong possibility in the event that they’re aggressive in the market.

THE MARINERS WILL NOT ACQUIRE A HIGH-END STARTING PITCHER

Despite my prediction of a payroll increase, I just can’t see the Mariners dropping a ton of cash on one of the few high-end starters in this free agent class. Considering that Félix Hernández is set to earn $27 million this season, the Mariners are practically being forced to hand him a spot in their starting rotation. Therefore, whichever pitcher the Mariners were to acquire would have to be determined better than Mike Leake or Wade LeBlanc. That significantly shrinks the list of potential targets.

For the few that are clear upgrades of Leake and LeBlanc, the majority of the league will be after their services and the Mariners will likely have no interest in entering bidding wars of extremely high volume. Even with a potential payroll increase, that doesn’t guarantee players will actually be interested in joining them. The Mariners will always be smart about what they give up in terms of years more than dollars. I don’t see this regime offering Patrick Corbin a six-year deal, which is what it would likely take to pry him out of the scrum.

As much as I love Patrick Corbin and will be writing about why the Mariners should do whatever they can to sign him, I just don’t see them getting him. It doesn’t feel very realistic. J.A. Happ is another option, but he doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached to him which makes him an even more hot commodity, and the Mariners probably won’t even try to get involved in the circus that should surround him.

If the Mariners acquire an established Major League starter this offseason, I feel that it’ll be something like taking a flyer on Garrett Richards in hopes his recovery goes ahead of schedule. The big dollars, should they spend them as I predict, will likely be used to beef up the offensive side of the team.

KYLE LEWIS WILL NOT BE TRADED

You’re probably wondering right about now, “Ty, why do we have to do everything in free agency? We could probably get something pretty nice for Kyle Lewis.” Well, let me just give it to you straight: Kyle Lewis doesn’t have the value in the trade market that you think he has.

In addition to his knee issues, Lewis has posted relatively average numbers at every level in the Minor Leagues up to this point and has already found himself outside of MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list after debuting at #28. At this point, I doubt he could even net you the return Tyler O’Neill brought back in Marco Gonzales. He may not even be the best prospect to realistically headline a deal for the Mariners right now, with Evan White starting to turn more heads after a strong 2018 campaign.

Jerry Dipoto also mentioned Lewis’ name as one of the prospects we could eventually see called up in the second half of the 2019 season. They seemingly see a future with him, despite his struggles. Though GMs do that a lot with their prospects then trade them shortly after, I feel that if Dipoto were to deal Lewis, he would have done it by now. Lewis’ value has never been lower and it just isn’t worth it to deal him at this point.

I still hope Lewis develops into the player we expected him to be, especially if he does get a shot at the Major League level at some point this season. That doesn’t feel very realistic at the moment, though.