Seattle Mariners: 5 Offseason Predictions

PAYROLL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LUXURY TAX THAN EXPECTED

In Colby’s payroll-centric article, he notes that the Mariners’ end-of-year payroll is roughly $45 million off from the luxury tax. The Mariners have never been a team to push the luxury tax at any point in their history, but Chairman John Stanton has occasionally mentioned his willingness to give Jerry Dipoto financial freedom to build a contender.

However, the Mariners have seemingly set a yearly cap for themselves at around $160-$170 million, appearing reluctant to burn cash in the free agent market in that time. Perhaps an 89-win season can change that strategy, especially in a free agent class as rich as this one when the Mariners’ only shot of adding significant talent is through that medium.

When the Mariners were still leading the second AL Wild Card position at the trade deadline, Dipoto had mentioned having a flexible payroll. Of course, that was also assisted in part by Robinson Canó leaving roughly $12 million on the table due to his suspension, though most of it went to Álex Colomé and Denard Span. The Mariners ultimately didn’t add a significant amount of payroll at the deadline, though that likely indicates where the market was at and what fit and didn’t fit for the Mariners in terms of talent.

If the Mariners truly wish to build a team able to contend for a division title in the AL West, they will absolutely have to spend more money. Now, the Mariners have no chance of inking Bryce Harper or Manny Machado to a deal, but a Nelson Cruz extension and  — for example — an A.J. Pollock signing would start to mount up the numbers real fast. Adding a starting pitcher of the Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel variety would also do quite a bit of damage.

No matter what their strategy is going into free agency, it has to involve an uptick in payroll. I don’t see them reaching the $200 million threshold, but $180-$185 million seems like a strong possibility in the event that they’re aggressive in the market.