Seattle Mariners: Sign or Decline — Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz perhaps played his final game in a Seattle Mariner uniform yesterday, but that doesn’t have to be the case.

When Cruz signed his four-year, $57 million contract with Jack Zduriencik’s Mariners, major skepticism flooded the incredible potential he brought to the table. Coming off a season in which he hit 40 home runs for the Orioles, media and fans alike pleaded that his success was due in large part to playing in a small stadium in Baltimore.

Making the move to a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Safeco Field would tame his power; he would never reach 30 home runs, let alone 40. The contract was too long and his age would only permit him a year or two worth of solid production out of the four on his deal.

By fWAR, Cruz went on to have four of his seven best seasons in his career while with the Mariners. In those years, he hit 44, 43, 39, and 37 home runs respectively and made the American Leage All-Star team three times.

His four seasons with the M’s rank first (2015, 158), second (2016, 148), tied for third (2017, 147), and sixth best (2018, 134) in his career for wRC+. His OBP remained steady around the .350 mark, only ever falling as low as .342 this past season and as high as .375 in 2017, giving him a balanced slash line of .284/.362/.546 with the Mariners.

Despite there being somewhat of a noticeable decline in his numbers, he’s still hitting incredible marks that are unheard of for most players at his age. Of course, Cruz is only asked to play in the field once or twice a year, so it keeps his body fresher than someone along the lines of Joe Mauer or Adrian Beltre.

While Cruz has been great, the limitation of solely being a designated hitter does hurt the Mariners’ roster flexibility moving forward. That’s something to keep under consideration, as the team looks to build a more dynamic lineup to contend in 2019.

But Cruz has been more than good enough to warrant the handicap he carries. In short, the Mariners should absolutely bring him back. Given his comments after yesterday’s season finale, it appears that he wants to come back rather than test the free agent market.

The Mariners still have plenty of time to work out a deal with Cruz before he’s eligible to talk with other teams. Personally, I think a deal gets done sooner rather than later. I don’t think the Mariners want to risk one of the most productive hitters in their organization’s history going elsewhere, so I can’t see them holding off on a deal until November.

Now where would “elsewhere” necessarily be, exactly? With Cruz’s inability to play in the field on a consistent basis, he won’t be going anywhere in the National League. Cruz also doesn’t strike me as someone who will chase money to play for a rebuilding team, so that pretty much eliminates half of the American League.

The Red Sox, Indians, and Yankees are all set at the designated hitter position, and the A’s like to keep their designated hitter spot by committee. The Rays are an interesting option, but they’re a young team that’s stacked with plenty of power and, like the A’s, prefer to keep the designated hitter in rotation.

So that leaves the Astros and, uh, yeah, let’s not let that happen, okay? Just get the deal done and don’t even let the idea of that nightmare slip into our heads. We’ve had enough torture as is.

Sign or Decline? Sign.

Prediction: Two-year, $31 million contract with a third-year club option.