Seattle Mariners Trade Deadline Plans May Be Shifting

The Seattle Mariners just completed a difficult homestand at 5-2. The team stands 20 games over .500. As a result, the strategy of how to approach the upcoming trade deadline is shifting as well.

As of today, the Mariners sit 8 games ahead of their nearest playoff competitor, the Los Angeles Angles. They sit just 1.5 games behind the red-hot Astros. As a result, the Mariners have built a nice cushion.

With this cushion and a surprisingly weak American League, the Mariners are now considered the heavy favorite to claim one of the 3 playoff spots available to them. Most “experts” view the Mariners as a de facto lock for the second and final Wild Card, where they will face the loser of the Red Sox and Yankees AL East race.

Now, the Mariners may have changed how they can approach the trade deadline. You may be asking yourself, “how”? Think about how much things change when you are chasing a playoff spot instead of playing in the playoffs themselves.

In the playoffs, the bullpen becomes exponentially more important than it is in the regular season. As does the bench. In the regular season, if a bullpen arm or bench piece needs replacing, you can typically do so by reaching for a minor leaguer who can handle mop-up duty for a week or two.

Yet in the playoffs, you cannot rely on these type of players.

In fact, certain players that carry value over 162 games, become nearly irrelevant in the sprint of the playoffs. These players include the 5th starter and long relievers. For the Mariners, right this second, that would mean leaving Felix Hernandez and Roenis Elias off the playoff roster.

So what? Are the Mariners just gonna carry 11 pitchers in the playoffs? Actually, they could. In fact, it might be the optimal strategy. But adding a high leverage reliever makes the most sense. 12 seems to be the optimal strategy.

With 3 of your 4 bench spots going to the backup C, emergency SS, and 4th OF, carrying just 12 pitchers allows you to carry an extra position player. This player can play a singular role, such as power hitting lefty or a base stealing threat later in the game.

If the Mariners were in a position where they were desperately trying to keep pace with the Angels, starting pitching would likely be the highest priority. However, with a hot rotation and comfortable cushion, the strategy may go from making the playoffs to building the roster to win playoff series.

Of course, if the Mariners can add an impact starting arm for the right piece, they should. But adding a 5th starter who won’t make the playoff roster could be a waste of time. We are still about 6 weeks out of the trade deadline, and with a rotation of potential injury risk, this strategy could change.

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However, if over the next 2-4 weeks, the rotation continues to dominate and remain healthy, the Mariners can shift their attention to lengthening the bullpen and adding real weapons off the bench. After all, they have earned that right.