Seattle Mariners 3 Round Mock Draft 1.0

Today is one of the biggest days in the sports calendar. Today is Day 1 of the NFL Draft. If you are anything like me, you look forward to this all year. However, the MLB Draft is just 5 weeks away, and its important for the Seattle Mariners.

I’ve written about draft prospects for the past 2 months and wrote a lengthy primer about everything you need to know about how the draft works here. But today, for the first time, we start to formulate a plan for the Mariners 2018 draft.

Slowly but surely, we are learning more and more about how teams will approach this draft. We already heard that Seattle and Jerry Dipoto are looking for a fast-moving college type in round one. This shouldn’t surprise anybody. The Mariners M.O. under Dipoto has been college bat in Round 1, followed by high upside prep player in round 2.

Using the available data in front of us, and our basic understanding of how Dipoto drafts, let’s kick things off with this college athlete:

With the 14th Pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, the Seattle Mariners select Travis Swaggerty, OF South Alabama

I would love to see the Mariners select Jeremy Eirieman, but there doesn’t seem to be any whisper that Dipoto is interested. Reports say the Mariners would like to snag a quick moving college starter, but this draft is overflowing with those types of options.

So instead, Dipoto selects a player that, in theory, perfectly fits the Mariners mold. Travis Swaggerty is a dream Dipoto prospect. Good athlete? Check. Control the zone? Big time. Defense? Good.

The 5’11”, 180 lbs Junior posses well above-average speed, which he uses on the bases and in the field. He also has an advanced approach at the plate, which should be evident from his .465 career OBP. He has also posted a career 128/117 BB: K ratio.

Swaggerty is growing into a power stroke and has already matched his career high in homers in his first 37 games of 2018. There is 15-20 home run power in his bat, to go along with his advanced approach, good speed, and good defense. Swaggerty needs to refine his base stealing game to reach his true potential. But he has the potential to be a leadoff hitter in the big leagues for a decade.

Scouting Grades (20-80 scale)- Hit: 60 Power: 50 Run: 60 Arm: 55 Field: 55 Overall: 55 Pro Comparison: Brett Gardner

With the 85th Pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, the Seattle Mariners select Tarik Skubal, LHP Seattle University

The Mariners don’t have to go far to scout this left-handed pitcher. They also don’t have to dream that hard on a guy like Tarik Skubal. He began turning heads in 2016, striking out 50 hitters in 42.2 innings pitched in just 8 starts. Unfortunately, Skubal needed Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2017 season to rehab his injury.

Prior to the injury, Skubal was hitting 97 MPH from a 3/4 arm slot. In his return from TJ surgery, Skubal has struggled mightily with his control. Skubal is averaging over 8 walks per nine innings in 2018.

However, in his 8 starts in 2016, Skubal was walking just 3.59 BB/9. The recent rash of walks can be easily chalked up to a pitcher still recovering from major surgery. However, he is still missing a ton of bats, averaging 12.48 K/9 in 2018.

Skubal flashes a solid-average curveball, but his changeup lags behind both pitches. Even before the injury, his command was below-average. There is still a lot of work to be done by Skubal, but drafting him here could become an excellent value.

If Skubal can improve his command grade and his changeup, he could be a solid #3 starter with good upside. If the changeup doesn’t come along, Skubal can still serve as a high-leverage reliever with an improvement in his command.

Next: 5 Most Valuable Mariners Trade Assets

Scouting Grade (20-80)- Fastball: 60 Curveball: 50 Changeup: 40 Control: 45 Overall: 45

There you have it, our first MLB Mock Draft. As we get closer to draft day, we will be able to further lock down on the Mariners strategy. Until then, the Mariners are playing decent baseball, and take on the Cleveland Indians today.