The 5 Most Valubale Trade Assets on the Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are just over 1/8th of the way done with their season. It is far to early to declare the team a buyer or seller in July. However, it never hurts to audit your franchise, to see what assets you have that may be valuable down the road.

It is important to note that the Mariners, unlike in many recent years, actually have some pieces that should have good value on the trade market. The Mariners are better suited to be sellers than buyers but have enough ammo to go either route to some degree.

Today, we will look at our list of the 5 Most Valuable Seattle Mariners Trade Assets. We are not looking at the team as a buyer or seller yet. Instead, we are focusing on the value a player can bring back to the team should they be dealt in July.

Remember, Major League players are most likely going to be dealt for minor leaguers and vice versa. Until we understand which direction the Mariners will go, it is next to impossible to speculate on the return or destination of each player. However, we have some decent comp deals to look at for each of the 5 players.

So without further ado, let’s get started with the 5 Most Valuable Mariners Trade Chips!

5. Nelson Cruz

It would be beyond painful to see Nelson Cruz get dealt this summer. In just 3 years, he has become one of the all-time great Mariners. In fact, Nelly has the highest wRC+ in Mariners history. His 150 wRC+ edges out none other than Edgar Martinez at 147. In a very real way, Nelson Cruz is the best pure hitter in team history.

However, on the flip side, he will turn 38 on July 1st and is currently playing out the final year of his contract. We have heard no speculation on extension talks from either side, but we shouldn’t completely rule them out either way. If the Mariners find themselves in a position to move Cruz, they could get a decent package.

In this case, we only have to look back to the 2017 season to find the Nelson Cruz trade comp. When the Detroit Tigers traded away JD Martinez to the Arizona Diamondbacks, they gave the Mariners the blueprint to follow.

Both Cruz and Martinez would/will only have a few months of club control left. Both are limited defenders. And both are extremely talented hitters. For moving Martinez, the Tigers got 3 prospects. The “headliner” was Dawel Lugo, a shortstop prospect with decent upside.

The Tigers also received Jose King and Sergio Alcantara, 2 C+ type of prospects. The Mariners could seek more than the Tigers if they decided to add a useful bullpen piece like Nick Vincent, but a package similar to Detroit’s would add 3 prospects all likely to end up in the teams Top 25.

The kicker here is that there could be an opportunity for Seattle to trade Cruz, and then resign him this off-season. It is rare, but if the relationship is strong enough, it could happen. Cruz offseason suitors will likely be limited, thanks to his age and lack of defense, so coming back to a place with friends like Robinson Cano could be an option.

Number 4: Kyle Seager

As an ardent defender of Kyle Seager, it would be kind of shocking to see him go. But if the Mariners decided to go quick rebuild, it could be wise to shop the second-longest tenured Mariner.

Despite what many in Seattle would tell you, Kyle Seager is a perfectly good player making a perfectly reasonable salary. At just 30 years old, Seager is under club control until at least 2021, with a very reasonable team-friendly option for 2022.

Similar to the Cruz deal, the Mariners would not have to look far back to see the comp for the framework of a potential Seager deal. When the Rays traded Evan Longoria to San Francisco this winter, it gave the Mariners a good starting point for discussions around Seager.

I say starting point for several reasons, including the fact that Seager is 2 full years younger than Longoria, and is under club control for the same amount of time. But also, and this is important: Kyle Seager is better than Evan Longoria. It’s true. In fact, Seager has been worth 3 wins more than Longoria since 2014. So what did Tampa get for their Franchise player?

In order to offset some of the salary concerns for San Francisco, the Rays took the contract of Denard Span. Perhaps Seattle will have to do the same. However, Tampa also received Christian Arroyo, Matt Krook, and Stephen Woods.

Arroyo entered 2018 as a Top 100 prospect in all of baseball (according to MLB Pipeline) and projects to be an above-average bat and glove at the Major League level. Krook, a former first-round talent, is still working his way back from an arm injury, and Woods could be a solid 7th inning bullpen arm.

So the Rays got a useful MLB piece, a good yet unspectacular prospect, and 2 lottery ticket arms. Could Seattle get the same? It’s hard to imagine a reason they can’t. If the can’t they can hold Seager and try again this winter.

Number 3: Dee Gordon

Look, I don’t like it either. But there is no denying the Mariners could get a pretty sweet payday by shopping newest fan favorite Dee Gordon this Summer or Winter. While it would be odd for the Mariners to move a player they just acquired, they would very likely recoup that which they gave up to acquire Dee and possibly much more.

How is this possible? Look at what the Mariners have already proven with Dee Gordon. We now know he can play a passable center field and can have success in the American League. With this knowledge, along with the previous fact of his Gold Glove ability at second, Dee Gordon should have more value than he did this winter.

The Mariners parted ways with number 2 prospect Nick Neidert and number 7 prospect Chris Torres to acquire Gordon and will demand at least a similar type of deal to even consider moving him. The 30-year-old is under contract until at least the 2020 season.

The Mariners could get a little more if they eat some of the contracts as well. If dealt this summer, Gordon would only cost the acquiring team $31.5 million over the final 2.5 years of his contract. A team like the Brewers who have a hoard of young talent and a potential need at second could be an interesting fit, and one the Mariners could explore this summer or over the winter months.

Number 2: James Paxton

Starting pitching is hard to come by, especially in the middle of a playoff race. In addition, the 2018 free agent class is weak in 1 particular department: starting pitching. If James Paxton can stay healthy in 2018, the Mariners have an opportunity to cash in on their ace either this summer or in the offseason.

Obviously, in this scenario, the Mariners are likely in a rebuild mode. But as counterintuitive as it seems, the Mariners could speed up their rebuild by shipping off one of their best players. Look at the Chicago White Sox.

No not the Chris Sale trade. Paxton isn’t quite on his level. Rather, look at the Jose Quintana trade. The White Sox got Eloy Jiminez and Dylan Cease for their underrated lefty. Now, Quintana isn’t the best comp. After all, he has been able to string together 200 inning seasons year after year. Meanwhile, Paxton’s career high for innings in the big leagues is 136. But Paxton is pitch for pitch, better than Quintana.

The more accurate comp for Paxton might be Sonny Gray. If you recall, the Oakland A’s traded Gray to the Yankees in exchange for Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo, and James Kaprielian. If the Mariners had gotten the same package for Paxton, Mateo would be the best prospect in the Mariners system, Fowler the 3rd best, and Kaprielian the 5th.

We have actually written a few proposals for Paxton in the past and used the Sonny Gray deal as our working comparison. As painful as it might be to stomach, moving Paxton this July could be the best way to maximize his value, and jump-start the Mariners “slow burn rebuild”.

Number 1: Edwin Diaz

It really has been a painful list. My initial thought when I sat down to write this list was that James Paxton would be first. But in all actuality, Edwin Diaz would net the Mariners a better package than even James Paxton. Look at the deals swung for bullpen arms at the deadline in recent years.

Justin Wilson fetched the Tigers Jeimer Candelario. The Yankees parlayed 2 months of Aroldis Chapman to Top 5 Prospect Gleyber Torres. They also trade Andrew Miller to Cleveland for Justus Sheffield and Clint Frazier. Absolutely crazy deals.

Here is the thing though: Diaz is younger, has more control, and has the same upside as Miller and Chapman. The Mariners have every reason to ask for an Andrew Miller like package for Edwin Diaz. They may not get it, but it is a reasonable asking price for the best young reliever in all of baseball with 4 years of club control remaining.