5 Ways the Mariners Can Make the Playoffs in 2018

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For most Mariners fans, the success of the 2018 season will be defined by one factor: did they make the playoffs? As it sits right now, the odds aren’t great. But if they get some lucky breaks it could happen.

There are a number of factors that are completely outside the control of the Mariners. How do the other teams perform? What players are added in season? How seriously will the injury bug bite this year?

When we examine most of these factors, it is important to understand that there is some margin for error. For example, if we say Cano has to hit 40 home runs, but he hits 37, could the Mariners still make the playoffs? Of course.

The factors we are examining today are not based on any numerical data. Just on the following premise: the Mariners are, as we sit today, an 80 win team. And the Mariners will need roughly 86 wins to make the playoffs.

With this premise and these factors in mind, let’s dive right in. Here are 5 ways the Mariners could make the playoffs in 2018.

#1. Felix Hernandez and James Paxton combine to make 60 starts with 320 innings.

SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 28: Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez /

The need for Felix Hernandez and James Paxton to stay healthy and pitch well for Seattle in 2018 is well documented. On paper, the Mariners have one of the thinnest rotations in baseball, and a sustained injury to either one can be catastrophic.

If Paxton can throw 180 innings, he will garner Cy Young votes. He was well on his way in 2017, before a pectoral injury in mid-August derailed his season. If Felix can find a reasonable facsimile to his 2015 self, the Mariners rotation packs a solid 1-2-3 punch, all of whom could combine to handle 540-600 innings total.

This work load would come as a huge sigh of relief to their bullpen. A healthy Paxton and Felix helps everybody on the team. It also widens the margin of error, and could give Jerry Dipoto the ability to add in July, rather than distract.

2. The Bullpen is Elite. Not good. ELITE.

On paper, the Mariners figure to have one of the better bullpens in the American League. While not on par with the super pen of the Yankees, it can be reasonably argued that the Mariners ‘pen ranks right up their with anybody elses, including the Indians and Astros.

This is fantastic news, considering the current plan seems to be ultra dependent on the ‘pen staying healthy. This plan took a small step back with the announcement that David Phelps will miss the entire season with a torn UCL.

The bullpen should still be solid. Fangraphs projects them to be worth 3.5 fWAR. For context, they project the Yankees ‘pen to be worth 7 wins and the Astros to be worth 5.5 wins.

With a projected record of 80-82, the Mariners will need to match the Yankees bullpen projections to 84 wins. Already a tall task, but at 84 wins, the Mariners would be right on the cusp of contention.

Fangraphs currently projects the Mariners to have the 5th best bullpen in the AL, which is great. But if they want to find their way into the playoffs in 2018, they need more than “great”. They need elite.

3. Have an Unexpected All-Star or Two

The Seattle Mariners have stars on this roster. What they need are more stars to emerge from this 2018 roster. Let’s get this straight right away: they don’t need to make an All-Star. They just need to play like they could make an All-Star team.

We saw this in spurts from a few guys in 2017. Mitch Haniger, Taylor Motter, and Ben Gamel all had stretches where it looked like they could be perennial All-Stars. Of the 3, only one had staying power for more than a month. The Mariners will need this kind of breakout, but they will need it to last more than 6 weeks.

There are a few obvious candidates. Obviously, if Haniger stays healthy in 2018, he is the most likely to get there. After all, he was worth 3 bWAR in just 96 games in 2017. If he can play 150, he could hit the 5 win plateau. Same goes for Mike Zunino.

Ben Gamel is another candidate, although that task got more challenging since he will miss all of April with his back injury. Jean Segura has done it before (more on that later), and nobody would be shocked to see Cano, Cruz, Seager or Gordon do it either.

Perhaps the darkest of dark horses is new first baseman Ryon Healy. Healy has posted a career total 3.1 bWAR. However, this is with the massive caveat that his WAR was dragged down by his atrocious defense at third. If he plays solid defense at first, and puts up his 2016 pace to a full season, he could come close to that 5 win mark.

4. Go Back in Time and Bring Back 2016 Jean Segura, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager

PEORIA, AZ – FEBRUARY 21: Robinson Cano /

I’m not sure if you guys remember this, but in 2016, Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano were F*****g awesome. So to was then Arizona Diamondback Jean Segura. If you need a little refresher, Seager posted a 6.9 bWAR, Cano a 7.3 bWAR, and Segura a 5.5 bWAR.

Combined, the trio was worth a total of 19.7 wins above replacement level. How did that compare to 2017? Well, Segura posted a 3.2 bWAR, Seager a 2.5 bWAR, and Cano a 3.4. Combined, a total of 9.1 wins above replacement value, a difference of over 10 wins.

Most expect Seager to bounce back to his usual, 4-5 win pace in 2018, but most projections have Cano and Segura being roughly the same as 2017. So even if you account for the positive regression for Seager, this would still be a 7-8 win swing for the Mariners in 2018, and the difference between mediocrity and an 86-88 win team.

While it is not likely to happen, it has happened in the past. Therefore, we cannot explicitly rule it out (but let’s be real). If it does happen in 2018, the Mariners will not only be a playoff contender, but a serious threat in the American League.

5. Everybody Plays Just 5-10 % Above Their Projection, Jerry Brings In Reinforcements

SEATTLE, WA – JUNE 11: Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto watches batting practice before a game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field on June 11, 2016 in Seattle, Washington. The Rangers won the game 2-1 in eleven innings. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /

Perhaps the most likely of unlikely scenario for the Mariners is this. Just be slightly better than the pundit’s think, stay in the thick of things, and give Jerry Dipoto a reason to add in July rather than sell.

We saw this with the Kansas City Royals in 2015. The team was good in the first half, and Dayton Moore went out and added Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto to help the Royals win their first World Series in 30 years.

In this scenario, Seattle would need to be at least 5 games over .500 in July, or within 3 games with no more than 2 teams to overcome for the wild card, in order for Dipoto to justify such a move.

With a lot of the AL down, it is possible. Considering that the Yankees, Indians, Astros and Red Sox are seen as locks to make the playoffs in 2018, that leaves 1 spot left. The contenders are: Minnesota, Texas, Los Angeles, Toronto, Baltimore, and Seattle.

Next: Previewing the 2018 Mariners Outfield

It’s not hard to write a script where Seattle finds itself in this exact position come July. If they do, we should all implore Dipoto to buy smartly. But if they aren’t, you must be willing to sell.

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