What if Felix Hernandez is Good For Mariners in 2018?

The Seattle Mariners need a lot to go right to compete in 2018. Perhaps there is no bigger need than a good Felix Hernandez. Most aren’t expecting this to be the case, and shouldn’t be. But what if he is?

The Mariners are certainly hoping this is the case. But before we break down the what if, lets consider what “good” is.

Let’s begin with what should be obvious: Felix Hernandez is not the same pitcher he was 5 years ago. The numbers back this up, as do the age, injury history, and eye test. The years of consistently posting 5.5 WAR seasons and competing for Cy Young’s are over. But what if he came close?

What if Felix returned to his 2015 form? In 2015, he posted a 3.53 ERA, with a solid 8.52 K/9 and a 56.2% ground ball rate. It was good for a 4.5 bWAR season. While not the ace he used to be, he was a perfectly solid #2.

For the sake of our discussion, lets give Felix his 2015 numbers in 2018. What would this mean for the Mariners this season? Using the ultra simple WAR comparison, this would represent a 3.7 win bump.

Obviously, adding 3 wins would be a huge bump. STEAMER currently projects the Mariners as an 80-82 team. Steamer is more bullish on Felix than other projections, and have him as a 1.9 win pitcher in 2018. So if Felix could add 2.5 wins to the Mariners projections, that would make them an 82-80 team.

Perhaps the most significant value of a “good” Felix Hernandez cannot accurately be measured. Hernandez only threw 86.1 innings in 2017. He threw 201.1 in 2015. An additional 115 innings of #2 Felix means removing that burden from the other starters.

It means that the likes of Erasmo Ramirez, Marco Gonzales, Ariel Miranda and Rob Whalen would not be relied on as heavily. It also means a slightly less stressful load for the bullpen. Mariners fans should feel comfortable with getting 180 innings from Mike Leake. In addition, if James Paxton hits his projected 172 innings, the Mariners have one of the better 1-3 rotations in the American League.

So what would a good Felix mean for the Mariners? Well, the sad truth is that even if Felix magically became a bona-fide ace, Seattle would still be between an 82-84 win team. However, if the Mariners are willing to add at the deadline, the extra 2-3 win bump from Hernandez might be enough to push them over the top.

Next: Projecting Felix Hernandez in 2018?

In conclusion, the Mariners need more than just a “good Felix” in 2018 if the roster stays as is. But as we have seen over the past few years, every win matters. If Felix can add an extra 2 wins, it could put the Mariners in a better position to buy at the deadline, and could be just enough to end the longest playoff drought in sports.