Will Marco Gonzales Be the Mariners’ 2018 X-Factor?

We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope — Martin Luther King, Jr.

The Mariners’ 2018 slogan was unveiled a couple of weeks ago, and it’s short and sweet: “good”.

No, that’s not an editorial comment regarding truncated brevity. Nor is it necessarily an assessment of the team’s 2018 fortunes, although manager Scott Servais hopes so. After 2016’s “Are You Ready?” and last year’s “Whatever it Takes”, this year’s iteration carries a certain quiet confidence, which the M’s will certainly need in order to break their 17-year playoff drought.

Playoffs Odds

The mountain they’ll have to climb is steep. The Houston Astros remain the team to beat in the American League West, while Los Angeles and Texas have a similar shot at the wild card as Seattle. That’s not even factoring in the fortunes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Indians, Rays or whoever else emerges (and there will be surprises) as the season progresses.

Las Vegas isn’t bullish on the M’s chances, although to be fair, it’s not as if the Twins, Rays, Rangers or Angels are in much better shape at this early stage.

Will the Mariners be “good”? In order to answer in the affirmative, the team will need serious production from an on-paper strong offense, much better luck with injuries, solid defense and perhaps most of all, consistent starting pitching — including at least one “x-factor”. If this year’s club is forced to use anything close to the seventeen that made at least one start last year, the M’s marketing department may have to change the slogan to “Good Grief”.

The Top of the Rotation

As long as he remains healthy, James Paxton is the unquestioned ace. If everything falls into place (always a dangerous supposition for a Mariners pitcher), Felix Hernandez and Mike Leake have the savvy and stuff to serve as number two and three starters. We all know what Felix has done throughout his career. Leake has posted not-too-shabby WARs of 3.0, 1.5, 2.9, .5 and 1.8 over the past five seasons.

For the Mariners to remain in the race, Paxton, Hernandez and Leake have to stay healthy and play at or near their potential. With that said, who among the remaining starting pitching candidates can be the x-factor a bubble team needs to push them over the top?

Marco Gonzales as the X-Factor

The resume is short and the odds on the long end, but Marco Gonzales could be the x-factor. Let’s take a look at the evidence.

He’s still relatively young: Gonzales turned 26 years old just last month.

He’s a local: Although he was born in Fort Collins, Colorado, Gonzales played college ball at Gonzaga University.

His Tommy John surgery was nearly two years ago: For most pitchers, rehabilitation from UCL reconstruction is between 1-2 years. Gonzales’ fastball has never been overpowering, but reportedly once again touches 93-94 mph with movement.

He has an effective second pitch: Gonzales has a low-80s changeup, which is typically his money pitch when the chips are on the line.

Overall, his 2017 minor league results were promising. He went a combined 16-8 in 27 starts, posting a 3.08 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Gonzales’ strikeouts/9 innings were a solid 7.5, while his SO/W ratio was 3.16/1.

He’s found a new arm slot and has dusted off his cut fastball: Gonzales will be utilizing a lower arm slot and is feeling strong enough to bring the cut fastball back to his repertoire.

He’s looking good so far: All right, it’s early. Yes, spring training numbers are meaningless. Still, you can’t help but feel encouraged by five innings, three hits and eight strikeouts.

Time Will Tell

Of course, there are simply too many variables in play to make loud, declarative statements about a potential breakout season for the young left-handed hurler. Will the surgically repaired arm hold up? Does Gonzales have what it takes to be an effective starter at the major league level? Will GM Jerry DiPoto ship him off to some faraway land in yet another roster-churning transaction?

Next: Ian Miller Says He is Ready to Help Seattle

Time will tell. For now, though, consider Gonzales a potential x-factor for the M’s 2018 postseason chances.