Seattle Mariners and Collin McHugh: Is it Possible?

This week, reports surfaced that the Houston Astros have been getting interest on starting pitcher Collin McHugh. Today, we explore whether or not this option is indeed an option, for the Seattle Mariners.

Unless you are in deep denial with the truth, the Mariners must add impact starting pitching to try to end their playoff drought. In recent days, reports have surfaced that the Astros have had discussions with other teams about right-handed pitcher Collin McHugh.

According to Ken Rosenthal, of The Athletic, the Astros are listening, but are in no rush to trade 30-year-old McHugh. With the Mariners desperate need for pitching, could an arranged marriage of McHugh and the Mariners make sense?

For simplicity, lets stipulate that the Astros are willing to trade McHugh in division. What kind of price tag could they demand? As it turns out, a pretty nice little package.

To most, including me, McHugh’s numbers are shockingly good. Sure, you didn’t think he was a bad pitcher, but did you think he was a legitimate #3 with #2 upside? I certainly didn’t. His numbers before an injury plagued 2017 were rock solid.

From 2014-2016, McHugh averaged 30 starts, throwing 181 innings with a solid 3.71 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Perhaps the most surprising stat is his impressive 8.4 K/9 rate over that 3 year stretch. McHugh also fits the “Dipoto Mold” for starters, possessing a 3:1 K/BB ratio over that time (3.41 to be exact).

During that stretch, McHugh posted a 3.2, 3.7, 3.1 fWAR respectively along with a solid 3.57 FIP. In short, Collin McHugh is a very good pitcher. In addition to his high K, low walk combination, McHugh is also among the league leaders in spin rate, particularly on his curveball and cutter.

The Mariners are in desperate need for a quality starter, and the seem to not be willing to spend money to find it. So what would it take for the Mariners to acquire McHugh? The short answer is: a lot.

The Mariners will not be the only bidders, as the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles both have confirmed interest in McHugh. McHugh is still relatively cheap, and has 2 seasons of club control before he can test free agency. These factors will lead to an elevated price tag.

Assuming the Astros don’t demand a “intra-division trade tax” the deal would still likely cost the Mariners one of Kyle Lewis, Evan White, Sam Carlson, Braden Bishop or Julio Rodriguez. In addition, Houston could demand a young, controllable bullpen arm as well as a wild card prospect. Think of the Gerrit Cole deal as a guide.

Can the Mariners afford to meet that package? Yes, but it would be quite painful. If a deal is consummated, it would likely need to include a 3rd team. However, a package of Julio Rodriguez, Dan Altavilla/Tony Zych, and Ronald Rosario probably gets you into the conversation.

Another possibility could revolve around James Pazos. The Astros are looking for a power lefty to add to their pen, and Pazos blend upside, velocity, and club control make him an appealing option. In fact, GM Jerry Dipoto mentioned earlier that Pazos was the most asked about player in trade talks with the Mariners this off-season.

Next: Could there be a battle at First?

Frankly, it is tough to imagine the Mariners and Astros coming to terms on a deal. However, the Mariners need to add pitching, and trading for a low-cost starter with upside is their best path to a return to the playoffs.