5 James Paxton Trade Packages For Selling Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners Spring Training is set to begin in 5 weeks. The team believes they are in it to win it in 2018, so trading staff ace James Paxton now would make no sense. But if they are out come July, the possibility becomes more real.

Sadly, the Mariners are likely too good to be completely out of contention by July. This ordinarily is a great thing, but considering their farm system restrictions, adding a significant piece to push them over the edge is nearly impossible.

But as we prepare for what is most likely another mediocre season, we will also plan for the worst( or best if you are on Team Sell like me). The truth is, if the Mariners need to be sellers in July, they have some very attractive pieces.

Nelson Cruz, Dee Gordon, and Mike Leake are all veterans who could fetch the Mariners a decent prospect or two. Vets in the bullpen like Nick Vincent, David Phelps, Juan Nicasio and Marc Rzepczynski will all have a market in July as well.

However, the most appealing piece on the Mariners major league roster might be the 29-year-old Canadian. We may have even gotten a glimpse of Paxton’s approximate trade market during the 2017 deadline.

Sonny Gray was dealt from the Oakland A’s to the New York Yankees in exchange for Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, and Jorge Mateo. A very impressive package for the A’s. Fowler is currently the 67th best prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. For good measure, Mateo is currently ranked 98th best, and Kaprielian is a high upside prospect who sits just outside the Top 100. Could the Mariners net a similar package?

The simple answer is yes. At the time of the trade, Gray carried 2.5 years of club control. This July, James Paxton will have, you guessed it, 2.5 years of club control. Gray was 27-years-old when he was dealt. Paxton was born just 366 days earlier. Gray has battled injuries throughout his career. Paxton has battled through injuries in his career.

The biggest difference is, well, James Paxton is a better pitcher right now than Gray. So, now that we have a base to work with, lets explore our 5 trade packages for Mariners Ace James Paxton.

James Paxton to the Cubs for Albert Almora, Alex Lange, and Adbert Alzolay

Lets start right at the top. Albert Almora is really just a fill in the blank of a young Cubs position player. Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and Javy Baez could easily fill that spot. Personally, I prefer Happ to Almora, but I am looking for the best overall package I can get. Demanding Happ over Almora would certainly lower the auxiliary pieces the Mariners could demand.

Getting back to Almora, he does poses an interesting skill set. He has the athleticism to play all 3 outfielder spots well, and could be a Gold Glove winner in a corner spot. He has well above-average speed, but is still trying to learn how to use it on the base paths.

Offensively, Almora is a high contact free swinger who does have some pop in his bat. A career .292/.330/.448 career slash over 440 career plate appearances is promising. Almora shows a solid average power tool, and at 23 years old, there is still time to tap into that potential.

Overall, Almora has the opportunity to turn into a 15 homer, 15 steal, defensive-minded outfielder. His high contact swing should allow him to hit for average as well. The floor is a solid platoon partner, as Almora has crushed LHP to the tune of a .342/.411/.486 slash line.

Lange and Alzolay would give the Mariners something they desperately lack in their organization: high upside pitching. Lange, the first round pick of the Cubs in 2017, figures to be a quick to the big league guy, with a plus fastball and curveball combo that could make him a lock down closer. However, the changeup shows real promise, and a career as a #3 starter is definitely possible.

Alzolay is really starting to climb through the ranks, and could be MLB ready by late 2018. His 94 mph fastball has run to it, and he throws a hard curveball that should play as above-average in the big leagues. Whether or not Alzolay can master the changeup will determine his faith as a starter. However, his mastery of the strike zone will give him a fighting change.

This trade would net the Mariners an every day, 23-year-old outfielder, and 2 possible middle of the rotation arms who should be ready by 2019. But does that top our next package?

James Paxton to the Yankees for Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar and Dillon Tate

The Yankees need another starting pitcher to put them over the top. Unlike the Mariners, they appear willing to accept this and act upon it. They have already been linked to Gerrit Cole and Yu Darvish this off-season. Paxton would give the Yankees a cheaper option than Darvish, and a better pitcher than Cole

For their the troubles, the Mariners would nab a package headlined by former top prospect Clint Frazier. There appears to be a split in baseball over what kind of player Frazier ultimately will become. The tools are off the charts, but the stats tell a different story. Frazier has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but also has 60 grade power and 65 grade speed. He can handle all 3 outfield spots, and could be a 30/30 All-Star if he reaches his ceiling.

Frazier is not the only player worthy of excitement in this package. Miguel Andujar, currently MLB.com’s 92nd ranked prospect, is a potential All-Star 3B. He has a good hit tool and has grown into more power each season. The 23-year-old prospect slashed .31/.352/.498 in 480 PA across AA and AAA in 2017. He slugged 16 home runs, and 36 doubles as well.

Andujar is still rough at 3rd base, but has shown steady growth at the position. Most scouts agree he will be at least average defensively, and has one of the best arms in all of the minor leagues.

Finally, the Mariners snag another former top prospect in RHP Dillion Tate. The #4 overall pick in the 2015 draft, Tate’s shine as a prospect took a hit thanks to some mechanical changes, but he appears to be back on track. Featuring 3 above-average pitches, Tate’s slight frame may force him into the bullpen, where he could dominate in shorter stints.

Paxton to the Cardinals for Jack Flaherty, Randal Grichuk, Dakota Hudson

Another trade, another young outfielder. This time, one with a much longer track record in Major League Baseball. The Cardinals, as always, have a rock solid farm system and should be looking to compete in mid-2018. They have a glut of young outfielders, but Grichuk is the most likely to be dealt. You can likely replace Grichuk with either Harrison Bader or Tyler O’Neill if you wish and still get a deal done.

For what its worth, Grichuk poses plus power, and can play all 3 outfield spots. He also grades out as a very good base-runner. He needs to redefine his approach to cut down on the K’s, but still have upside as a 26-year-old player.

However. Grichuk is not the headliner of this deal. That honor goes to Jack Flaherty. The RHP is MLB’s 48th best prospect and it’s easy to see why. Flaherty has 3 above-average pitches, including a plus changeup. He also posted a 4:1 K/BB ratio, average a strikeout per inning and walking only 35 hitters in 148.2 innings.

In addition to Flaherty and Grichuk (or Bader, or O’Neill, seriously pick the one you like) the Mariners also nab 2016 first round pick Dakota Hudson. Recently called the nastiest pitcher in AA by Mariners prospect Braden Bishop, Hudson has a legitimate chance to pitch in the big leagues in 2018, and poses 2 above-average pitches in his arsenal. While not a strike out pitcher now, there is definitely upside left, and Hudson posted a 2:1 GB/FB ratio over 152.2 inning

James Paxton to Toronto for Anthony Alford, Logan Warmoth,                Hagen Danner, and Sean Reid-Foley

James Paxton pitching for his beloved country of Canada. While I would love to say the Mariners could wrestle away Vlad Guerrero Jr., or Bo Bichette, I don’t believe that to be the case. Instead the Mariners get back a talented haul that includes: the #48 prospect in baseball, a 2017 first round pick, a 2017 second round pick, and a 2014 second round pick.

Anthony Alford, the #48 prospect in baseball, is fast. Like really fast. Like Jarrod Dyson fast. He is also a really good defensive outfielder, with an average hit and power tool. Alford takes walks, and makes good contact, and could be a table-setting leadoff hitters for years to come.

Logan Warmoth and Hagen Danner, the 2017 draft picks, would both slide into the Mariners Top 6 prospects, and it’s easy to see why. Warmoth has average to above-average tools across the board, and should be able to stick at shortstop, although he might be best suited for second base.

Danner, a high-upside catching prospect, posses an elite arm. He throws 94 MPH off the mound, and was unsure if he would pitch or catch in the big leagues. He stuck with catching, and shows the defensive prowess to win a gold glove or 2 at the position. His defense is a carrying tool, but many scouts still like the swing, and believe he will produce at a league-average level given time develop.

Sean Reid-Foley is all upside, with 3 above-average pitches and a changeup that doesn’t lag far behind. He needs to figure out his control issues, but if he can, he could be a solid #2 starter in the big leagues for years.

Look, at the end of the day, we are projecting way to much for these trades to mean much. Prospects will change hands, some will surge, others will fall off. Plus, the Mariners might actually still be competitive in July of 2018.

I have my doubts about that. But one thing I do not have any doubts about is that the Mariners are going to be rebuilding, and probably before Opening Day 2019. When the Mariners sell, keeping your most valuable trade chip is meaningless.

Tough choices are coming for the Mariners, and their fans. Nobody wants to say goodbye to their stars, especially when you have already endured 16 straight seasons of disappointment. It is never easy to admit you need to start over, but that is the case for Seattle.

In conclusion, the Mariners are coming to the cross roads, and instead of picking a direction, the have set up camp at the fork. It is an unsustainable model, and the day of reckoning is coming quickly.