A Heartbreaking Trade Proposal for the Seattle Mariners

For years, the Felix Hernandez trade conversations ran rampant in the Seattle Mariners fandom. Trade him to rebuild, or try to build around him. Unfortunately, the Mariners opted for neither, and now “The King” is well past his prime.

As difficult as this is to admit, Hernandez has become a burden on the franchise he helped stay relevant for the better part of a decade. But now, with his skill level dwindling, and his willingness to change questionable, the $27 million per year salary is crippling the team.

There is light at the end of this tunnel. Felix had a handful of starts in 2017 where he appeared to embrace a change, and looked like sustainable Felix Hernandez. But these glimpses were too short-lived to be a viable sample of change.

It is an undeniable fact now. Felix Hernandez is no longer an ace. He hasn’t been since 2014. The Mariners would love for another season like 2015 at this stage. But over the past 2 seasons, Felix has made just 41 starts, averaging just 5 2/3 innings over those starts, while giving up 36 home runs.

His ground ball percentage has shrunk from elite to about league average, and he has been worth a whopping 1.4 fWAR in the past 2 seasons.

Now the Mariners superstar does have just 2 years left on his deal. There is a strong case to be made that the team should ride it out, hope for a bounce back, and let the contract run its course.

But perhaps there is another route. Mariners fans should not be unfamiliar with a swap of bad contracts. Who could forget the famous Carlos Silva for Milton Bradley trade? Wait, before you give up on this idea, just consider the following trade proposal:

Felix Hernandez to the Chicago Cubs for Outfielder Jason Heyward.

Boom! Talk about a blockbuster right? Right? Ok, so it is not all that realistic, but lets examine the logic behind the deal. The Cubs are looking for starting pitching, and have been trawling for a deal to dump Jason Heyward’s contract. So on the surface level, it makes some sense. But would Heyward help the Mariners more than Felix?

It is true that Heyward has been a massive disappointment in Chicago, accumulating a 2.4 fWAR over 2 seasons. After an unbelievable 2015 with the Cardinals that saw him hit .293/.359/.439 and post a 6.1 fWAR, Heyward’s bat has fallen off a cliff, generating a 71 wRC+in 2016 and a 88 wRC+ in  2017.

This paints a pretty bleak picture of Heyward, but there are a few things worth keeping in mind. Heyward will play almost the entire season at the age of 28. He is still a premier defensive glove in right field, and a solid average glove in centerfield. Heyward has also been a plus base-runner in his career, an area the Mariners desperately need to improve.

Heyward’s contract appears to be the biggest issue for this deal. But there is an interesting clause that could greatly benefit the Mariners. The contract runs until 2023 and Heyward will get $21.5 million each season. Huge risk for the Mariners right? Why swap a bad contract with 2 years left for one with 7 years left? Hello, opt-out my old friend.

Heyward’s deal has a 2 opt-outs built into it. The first is after the 2018 season. Even if Heyward sticks around, the next opt out is after the 2019 season and is activated only if Heyward has more than 550 PA’s in the season. So, in theory, the contracts of Felix Hernandez and Jason Heyward will both end after the 2019 season.

There are so many hurdles to this deal, it is nearly impossible to imagine it coming to fruition. Both players would have to waive no trade clauses. Both GM’s must have interest in dealing for a major contract. Is it likely? No. But is it fun to think about? It sure is.

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