The 2018 Sodo Mojo Off-Season Plan

 After much collaboration and planning between the Sodo Mojo staff, and outside contributors, we proudly submit our 2017 off-season plan for the home town Seattle Mariners.

Before we begin, we must establish our budget for the off-season. On October 12th, Mariners owner John Stanton confirmed on The Brock and Salk Show that the payroll will not go down, and it will at least stay steady, and could grow for the right players. So how much do they have to spend?

Well, for starters, the Mariners have roughly $103 million tied up to 6 players. They are: Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Mike Leake, and Jean Segura. The Mariners also have 7 players eligible for Arbitration.

Of these 7, only Drew Smyly seems unlikely to be tendered a contract. The remaining 6 (Mike Zunino, David Phelps, Erasmo Ramirez, Nick Vincent, James Paxton, and Shae Simmons) are projected to earn a total of $22.7 million. For simplicity sake, let say the Mariners have $125 million tied up to 12 players.

The Mariners also have a group of youngsters, each of whom will earn just over $550,000. They are: Mitch Hainger, Ben Gamel, Guillermo Heredia, Ariel Miranda, James Pazos, Marco Gonzales, Andrew Moore, and Taylor Motter. Those 8 will add roughly $4-$5 million to the payroll. That gives the Mariners a payroll of $130 million.

The final payroll figure for 2017 hovered around $170 million. Based on Stanton’s recent comments, our panelist were given an initial budget of $180 million, meaning they have $50 million to spend on 5-7 roster spots.

Our current projected roster leaves us with some obvious holes to fill. The Mariners will most certainly need a first baseman and an outfielder.  They have a few spots in the pitching staff to fill, and perhaps a backup catcher. Below, our panelist have come up with a solution to said problems, and we now present, our 2018 off-season plan.

Sign Jarrod Dyson to a 1 year, $6.5 million deal with a mutual option worth $7.5 million in 2018 (1.25 million buyout).

The question of who would play center field for the 2018 season was one of the most divisive issues facing our panelist. We kicked around a few of the big name free agents like Lorenzo Cain and Carlos Gomez.

One of the panelist (me) kicked around the idea of trading Edwin Diaz to St. Louis for Tommy Pham, or selling the farm for Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. However; we determined that the Mariners would be best served retaining Jarrod Dyson.

The late season groin injury could be a blessing in disguise for the Mariners, and Dyson was likely going to be priced out-of-town. Dyson used his speed and defensive prowess to produce at 2 win season in just 111 games.

The experiment of Dyson playing every day should be considered over. The slight Dyson struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, slashing a pitiful .145/.230/.145 against them. However; against right-handed pitching, Dyson held his own. He slashed a solid .271/.342/.388 with a league average 100 wRC+.

This solid platoon split coupled with Guillermo Heredia‘s ability to hit lefties makes a Dyson/Heredia split in center make too much sense. Dyson’s great defense and base-running, coupled with a league average bat makes him a key cog in a playoff caliber team’s roster.

Sign Jaime Garcia to 2 year, $16 million Deal

It is no secret that the Mariners are looking to add starting pitching. After fully committing to loading his rotation with fly ball pitchers, Dipoto has since admitted that the team went overboard with these types of players. We already have watched how quickly Dipoto can work when he recognizes a mistake, as evident by the Mike Leake trade in late August.

Much like Leake, Jaime Garcia is a ground ball pitcher who could look pretty good in a Mariners uniform. Garcia pitched for 3 teams last season, and hits the open market as a 31-year-old. A ground ball machine, Garcia produced a career 56.2% GB rate.

Garcia does not miss a ton of bats, but also limits the walks fairly well. While not a top of the rotation arm, Garcia does provide quality depth in a rotation that started Andrew Albers, Erasmo Ramirez, and Ariel Miranda for large portions of the season.

Sign Jake McGee to 2 year, $17 million deal

The Mariners bullpen was not terrible in 2017, but it wasn’t great either. Closer Edwin Diaz was still wildly inconsistent and Nick Vincent really struggled in September. A healthy David Phelps can take pressure off both of these pitchers, but is far from a guarantee.

Both Emilio Pagan and James Pazos appear to be building blocks in the bullpen, both having impressive rookie seasons. The Mariners still need a couple of late inning guys to bolster the back half of the bullpen. With Dipoto’s comments about managing a staff differently, it makes us believe that money will be spent on the bullpen this off-season. Enter Jake McGee.

Seattle Mariners

Jake McGee is an interesting case. After a truly awful season for Colorado in 2016, McGee returned to form in 2017. The left-handed reliever posted an impressive 1.09 WHIP with a 9.1 K/9 and a 3.63 K/BB ratio.

Despite being a lefty, McGee has been slightly better against right-handed hitters. Spending this kind of money on a LOOGY (lefty one out guy) would be foolish, so Dipoto get’s 2 reliever slots filled with one arm.

A bullpen of Diaz, Vincent, Phelps, Pagan, Pazos, McGee and Simmons could give the Mariners one of the deepest bullpen in the American League. It would, however, require the team to move around some of the returning arms.

Trade Marc Rzepczynski +$3 million to Colorado for Noel Cuevas

Since the Mariners took Jake McGee from the Rockies, they will need to find another lefty for their bullpen. Marc Rzepczynski seems like a decent fit. Rzepczynski produced a 70% groundball rate. 70%!!! The lefty struggled mightily with his command last season, walking a whopping 5.74 hitters per 9. This greatly diminishes the possible return for the Mariners.

Noel Cuevas could be available.  The Rockies already have a loaded outfield, and Cuevas is expected to be nothing more than a 4th outfielder. He put up outstanding numbers in AAA this year, slashing .312/.353/.487, with 17 doubles, 12 triples, 15 home runs and 16 steals.

But these numbers are deceiving. Cuevas played in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the minors, and his splits showed it. He slashed .363/.405/.604 at home but just .262/.300/.371. Cuevas has plenty of swing and miss to his game, producing a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Cuevas has good speed and can play all 3 outfield positions. The 26-year-old does not have a home in Colorado, but might have one in Seattle. The trade gives the Rockies a major league piece at a massive discount, and gives the Mariners an extra $2 million to play with.

Trade Max Povse, Luis Liberato, and Dan Altavilla to TB for Jake Odorizzi

This isn’t the first time we have talked about Jake Odorizzi and a fit with Tampa Bay. The Tampa Bay Rays need to shed payroll and Jake Odorizzi and reliever Alex Colome are the most obvious names. While I wouldn’t rule out Colome as a possibility, the Mariners will likely eye Odorizzi.

Like a lot of Jerry Dipoto acquisitions, Odorizzi has a solid track record but is coming off a disappointing year. Posting a career 3.83 ERA and 4.23 xFIP shows that Odorizzi is a viable back-end starter. His near 8.0 K/9 rate over the last 3 seasons suggest he could be a little more.

Odorizzi misses a decent amount of bats, and usually has solid command. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which could the Mariners rotation a good variety of arms. Durability is also a key for Odorizzi, making at least 28 starts in each of the last 4 years.

The home run rate has steadily been climbing, which is a troubling trend. But Odorizzi still has 2 years of club control and is just 28 years old, suggesting a break out isn’t out of the question. Projected to earn $6.5 million in 2018, Odorizzi is a nice alternative to some of the other,older, higher priced free agents this off-season.

Trade Erasmo Ramirez and Anthony Jiminez for Zack Granite

It is not easy to say good-bye to Erasmo Ramirez. The man single handily kept the rotation a float between the James Paxton injury and the acquisition of Mike Leake. But now with Jaime Garcia and Jake Odorizzi in the rotation, and a slew of cheaper options in the minors, it is difficult to find a home for Ramirez.

The Mariners could try to transition him into the Chris Devinski role. It is a role the Mariners clearly want, after transitioning Max Povse to the bullpen, and even using Marco Gonzales in a similar role in September, But for a team with a slew of young, MLB ready relievers, it is difficult to justify spending close to $5 million on Ramirez.

The Minnesota Twins are looking for both back-end starters and bullpen arms, so a swing man like Erasmo could hold interest. Zack Granite is like a Jerry Dipoto fever dream. A minor league producer, with a 4th outfielder profile, who is insanely athletic. Minnesota may find it difficult to part ways with the youngster, so the Mariners might need to give more to make it happen.

Granite has a true plus speed tool, and might profile similarly to Jarrod Dyson.

Sign Hisashi Iwakuma to a Minor League Deal, Renegotiate Drew Smyly’s contract, Sign Rene Rivera for 1 year, $3 Million

Lets start with the player who has actually pitched for the Mariners. It is unlikely that Hisashi Iwakuma will have much of a market coming off a shoulder injury. The recovery timeline of his most recent surgery has him beginning his throwing program in late February or early March. He will need time to build up his arm strength and stamina, and Seattle could need some veteran rotation help.

A minor league deal allows Iwakuma to stick around with the Mariners organization, giving him the ability to rehab and work his way back to the majors. Giving Iwakuma a monthly opt-out could be nice insurance for the elder pitcher to make sure he is not stuck in the minors all season long.

If the Mariners wished to add him back to the 40 man, a $1 million base with incentives for starts made makes a lot of sense for both sides.

Drew Smyly is another massive question mark. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in July, it is a true question if Smyly will throw a pitch for the Mariners in 2018.  Scheduled to earn over $6 million in 2018, the Mariners cannot afford to waste that money. However, a 2 year deal worth $1-$2 million in year one and a modest $6 million salary in 2019 with aggressive incentives could make sense for each side.

Finally, the Mariners could use a veteran backup catcher. The team could just roll with Mr. Mike Marjama (a substitute teacher in the off-season) as Zunino’s primary backup. But signing Rene Rivera gives Scott Servais a reliable defensive option to play twice a week in Zunino’s stead. A 1 year deal worth $2-$3 million.

There you have it! Our 2018 Off-Season Plan! Did you make it to the end? Lets put a bow on our plan with one final overview.

The plan adds roughly $42.5 million to the payroll. It leaves a starting rotation of:

1. James Paxton
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Mike Leake
4. Jaime Garcia
5. Jake Odorizzi

The lineup would look something like

1. Jean Segura
2. Carlos Santana
3. Robinson Cano
4. Nelson Cruz
5. Kyle Seager
6. Mitch Haniger
7. Mike Zunino
8. Ben Gamel
9. Jarrod Dyson

That is not to shabby if you ask me. The bench would include some combination of Guillermo Heredia, Noel Cuevas, Zack Granite, Rene Rivera, Andrew Romine, Taylor Motter,and Zack Vincej.

Next: Jay Bruce... Seriously?

So what do you guys think? How would you have spent the money? Gone big on Yu Darvish or Lorenzo Cain? Traded Kyle Seager? Give us your thoughts in the comments below or on Twitter. Just remember the only thing we all know for sure is that nobody knows anything. So lets all sit back, relax and enjoy the 2018 Hot Stove Season!