Alternate Universe: The Mariners blow it up for 2018 Part 1

Regardless of whether the 2017 Mariners make the playoffs or crash and burn, Jerry Dipoto will enter this off-season and attempt to improve. That’s obviously what any GM would do… right? What if the Mariners went a different direction? What if they tried to get worse?

It bear repeating: of course Jerry Dipoto will not tear it down this off-season. He doesn’t really have any reason to. If not for an epic avalanche of injuries to this years squad, they would likely be leading a Wild Card race, not chasing it.

With Nelson Cruz having just 1 season left, Cano and Felix getting older, Kyle Seager starting to make “real money”, Paxton 1 year closer to free agency, and a lack of quality in the farm system; the team should push all of it’s chip into the table and give it one final go in 2018. (Note: The Mariners acquired Mike Leake on Wednesday in case you need further evidence that the Mariners are not blowing this up).

But what if they decide not to? What if this was the last straw, and the team decide to invest in a new core? Do they even have the pieces to make such a strategy work? Let take a look at some of the assets.

Players we should designate as NC or “No Chance” are players that have no chance at being traded. This list basically includes just Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano (contracts) and Jean Segura, who got a full no-trade clause in his latest extension. It also includes Kyle Lewis, Sam Carlson and Evan White, the 3 best prospects in the farm, since there is no reason to sell them.

There are a few you would categorize as PBNL, or Possible But Not Likely. These include guys with lots of control who are pre-arbitration eligible. That list includes Edwin Diaz, Ben Gamel, and Mitch Haniger.

Almost every other player is available to be dealt of this roster, with the exception of pending free agents. Finally, Hisashi Iwakuma and Yovani Gallardo won’t have their options picked up and Drew Smyly will likely not be tendered a contract.

With all that being said, lets start tearing this team down, by trading its best hitter away.

Mariners Trade Nelson Cruz, Andrew Moore and cash to the Orioles for Kevin Gausman

Nelson Cruz returns to the place of his true breakout. He is accompanied by prospect Andrew Moore, and odd move for a rebuilding team, but necessary to help Baltimore justif trading a 27 year old pitcher with 2 years left of control for a 38 year old with 1.

It is hard to believe Gausman will already be an Arbitration 2 guy this off-season, but he is a young pitcher who has yet to fulfill some of his upside. A career 4.14 FIP, the Orioles could be growing tired of waiting. With a veteran ball club that will likely lose Manny Machado when eligible for free agency, the time is now for the Orioles.

Gausman checks all the boxes for a Jerry Dipoto arm, including the coveted 8 K/9 to go along with a sub 3 BB/9. He has a filthy splitter to go along with a 95 MPH fastball. This trade would allow the Mariners 2 seasons of a potential ace and an opportunity to resign him. The deal could also net the Mariners a nice group of prospects if Gausman can figure it out in Seattle.

Mariners Trade James Paxton to Toronto for Anthony Alford, Richard Urena and Sean Reid-Foley

You may think that this is a high price to get for James Paxton, but remember what the A’s got for Sonny Gray. Like Gray, Paxton has multiple years of club control and some injury concerns in the past and future. Gray still netted a Top 100 prospect in Dustin Fowler, a former Top 100 guys in Jorge Mateo and  James Kaprelian. The Mariners have every right to demand a similar package.

The trick is to find a team with a deep enough farm system to absorb these loses and still give the Mariners enough to move their ace. Enter the Toronto Blue Jays. With one of the best farm systems in the minors, it is a logical landing spot for the lefty from Ladner BC.

All of the prospects the Mariners receive are in AA and could be up as soon as next season. Alford is the #49 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. It seems unlikely they could snag Vlad Guerrero Jr or Bo Bichette, leaving Alford as the next best choice.

Alford is a potential top of the order catalyst with 70 grade speed (20-80 scale) and a sound approach at the plate. There are questions if he can hit at a consistent level in the bigs. If everything goes well, he has some Byron Buxton-type of upside.

Next: Mariners acquire Mike Leake from Cardinals

Urena would add depth to the farm system in the middle infield and has some nice tools. He has been overmatched in AA thus far, but at 21 years old, there is still upside left. Reid-Foley is the piece that can take this deal over the top.

When healthy, he poses a 97 MPH fastball with arm side run and 2 above average breaking balls. The changeup is coming along and could be a solid 4th offering. It will come down to command for Reid-Foley, but at 22, he has time to figure it out.