Mariners 25-Man Roster Ultimate Preview: Roster-Projected Bullpen

There is nothing more unpredictable in baseball than a bullpen. You can be a stud in the bullpen one year, and the next year be out of a job. You could be a consistently awful starting pitcher, and then switch to the bullpen and be one of the best relievers of all-time (see Wade Davis). So, when it comes to projecting the bullpen, it’s really completely based on the trend of the pitcher that has been observed over time. But more so than any other position, a reliever is unpredictable.

The Mariners projected relievers are fairly young this year, raising some concerns of how their seasons will play out.

Relievers have always intrigued me. It’s fairly common for a reliever to be extremely effective one year and then pitch terribly the next year and not be effective. So, what do I mean by this?

Take Joe Borowski for example.

In 2007, Joe Borowski led the league in saves with 45, despite having an ERA which was 5.07.

Now, I’m sure you all remember Fernando Rodney. Some people loved him, some people hated him as a Mariner. But, although Rodney pitched much better than Borowski did, there were rumblings that his first year with the Mariners, despite the 48 saves, wasn’t one that could be replicated.

Sure enough, midway through his second year on the Mariners, Rodney was traded as he was struggling the whole years, and his mistakes that he made the year before, finally caught up to him.

Are there any Joe Borowski’s or Fernando Rodney’s on this year’s Mariners? Who is going to break out and be the star of the bullpen? Are Dipoto’s acquisitions going to contribute? Keep reading to find out who my picks are!

RHP- Dan Altavilla

IP- 57   W- 2   L- 4   ERA- 4.12   WHIP- 1.21   K-50   WAR- .4

Here’s an interesting piece of trivia for you about Dan Altavilla; He is one of just two active major leaguers who played at Mercyhurst University. Altavilla is also a flamethrower. In his major league debut, he torched the White Sox for a 1-2-3 inning. He also hit 100 MPH on the radar gun in that outing.

Altavilla is also a flamethrower. In his major league debut, he torched the White Sox for a 1-2-3 inning. He also hit 100 MPH on the radar gun in that outing.

In truth, Altavilla and Diaz took very similar paths to the big leagues. Both were drafted as starting pitchers, and both are flamethrowers who were converted to relievers. As relievers, they both thrived quickly and made it to the big leagues within a few short years.

As relievers, they both thrived quickly and made it to the big leagues within a few short years.

Dan very well could be a crucial component to the Mariners bullpen this year, but also a fixture in it for years to come. The Mariners have not had a permanent fixture in their bullpen for years.

If you look at our current bullpen, not one reliever has been a Mariner for more than just one short year. Altavilla is a relatively young pitcher, still under team control for a few more years.

Personally, I hope to see Altavilla striking out batters and flashing his big grin for years to come.

LHP- Mark Rzepczynski

IP- 49   W- 2   L- 2   ERA- 3.54   WHIP- 1.13   K-48  WAR- .6

Not many people are nearly as interesting as Mark Rzepczynski.

He is a man who has been on seven different teams, over seven years. He has been with five teams in the past three years and has been traded four times mid-year.

Usually, when you see a player with that resume, you think the reason he hasn’t been able to stick around with one team is because he just isn’t solid enough for a team to want him, but just good enough for teams to take chance son him.

However, that just isn’t true. He has a 2.9 WAR in the past seven years combined which is very very solid for a reliever. There’s a reason the Mariners are paying him 5.5 million a year to pitch for them.

They want him to be a fixture in the bullpen, and they don’t want to trade him mid-year. The Mariners know that a healthy and effective Mark Rzepczynski is going to be a major key to getting back to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

RHP- Nick Vincent

IP- 54   W- 3  L- 1   ERA- 3.29   WHIP- 1.26   K-57  WAR- .7

Nick Vincent, like most relievers, is an oddity. Is he the Nick Vincent of 2013 and 2015 in which he never had an ERA over 2.35? Or is he the Nick Vincent of 2014 and 2016 in which he never had an ERA lower than 3.60?

The problem with relievers is because they pitch only an inning at a time, and because they don’t pitch too many innings in a year, the law of averages doesn’t always add up for them.

What I mean is as follows. Nick Vincent isn’t really a 2.35 ERA guy, but he most likely also isn’t a 3.60 ERA guy. He most likely is somewhere in between. Eventually, he will regress to his mean, and I think this is the year Nick Vincent is solid but not spectacular.

The one big concern with Vincent is his struggles with giving up the long-ball. Last year he gave up 11 home runs. In comparison, he had only given up eight home runs combined in his career before that year. In just 6.2 innings in spring training he has already given up five home runs.

If Vincent can just solve his home run problem, which is a major “IF”, I think he will be a positive component to the Mariners relief corp.

RHP- Evan Scribner

IP- 46   W- 3  L- 2   ERA- 3.68   WHIP- 1.22   K-51  WAR- .4

To be perfectly honest, I had no idea who Evan Scribner was until Dipoto pulled his magic and it was announced that he was coming to the Mariners.

With a shoutout to Lookout Landing for their 40 to 40 article on Scribner, I learned something about Scribner that I think is important for everyone to know.

Seattle Mariners

Scribner actually leads the Majors in a very important statistic. His strikeout to walk ratio is about 15:1 which leads the majors. Clayton Kershaw who is second on that list doesn’t even come close at 8.5:1.

Is it a fair comparison? Probably not seeing as Scribner has amassed only 160+ innings in his career, while Kershaw pitches more than that annually, but it’s still important.

However, similarly to Vincent, Scribner had a major problem with giving up home runs. In 2015, He gave up 14 home runs, even though in his 14 innings on the Mariners last year, he didn’t give up one homerun. Not only that, he didn’t give up any runs.

Scribner was downright magical with the Mariners.

14 innings, five hits, two walks, and 15 strikeouts. And oh yeah, did I already mention he didn’t give up one run.

As much as I would like to predict that he won’t give up one run this whole year either, I can’t do that, but, I am very encouraged by his showing last year, and I think his play this year will be critical to the Mariners success.

RHP- Casey Fien

IP- 28   W- 1   L- 4   ERA- 4.65   WHIP- 1.27   K-43  WAR- .0

Casey Fien was a fixture in the Twins bullpen from 2013-2015. He was never a star, but he was never a weak link. You knew what you could count on with him. You knew you could count on 60+ innings. You knew he was going to hover around a 4.00 ERA.

All of a sudden, in 2016 his reliability disappeared. In 39.1 combined innings with the Twins and Dodgers, he had a 5.49 ERA, and he gave up a remarkable 13 home runs. That’s a rate of 3 home runs per nine innings. That’s not a fun stat.

Related Story: Roster Moves Make Room For Fien

So when Dipoto signed him this offseason, it was a very classic Dipoto signing. A pitcher one year removed from being solid, at a very very cheap price. Dipoto’s philosophy that when you gather a surplus of spare parts, then eventually enough spare parts will be able to do their job.

Which spare part will Fien be? Will he be a reliable innings eater, or will his worrisome trends from last year continue? I don’t think he will be as bad as last year, but I don’t think he is a long term solution. I doubt he finishes out the year in the bullpen.

LHP- James Pazos

IP- 48   W- 3   L- 5   ERA- 3.88   WHIP- 1.22   K-57  WAR- .2

In the minor leagues last year, Pazos had an extremely impressive K/BB ratio at 13.5. In the major leagues, Pazos had an extremely unimpressive ERA at 13.50. Whoaaa, crazy how coincidences happen. But on a serious note, acquiring Pazos was a very Un-Dipoto move.

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Dipoto is not in the business of making trades for highly risky players. He likes his spare parts, but spare parts that have proven to be successful at points in their career.

Pazos is 25 and has only pitched 8 innings in the Majors in his career, and those 8 innings were not super encouraging.

However, Pazos does have extraordinary upside. His velocity is right up there with the best in the league, as he regularly hits 97-98 MPH on his fastball.  As I mentioned before his K/BB ratio is promising, but when he isn’t generating swings and misses the problems start to add up.

Pazos has had a promising spring and seems set to start the year at least in the bullpen. With Tony Zych and Steve Cishek getting healthy, Pazos is going to have to impress in a hurry, and won’t have a long leash.

However, I have confidence that Pazos will pull through and remain a steady bullpen arm throughout the year barring injury.