Mariners 25-Man Ultimate Preview: Roster-Projected Starting Pitchers

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It seems like every offseason, the Mariners are focused on acquiring starting pitching, but yet they rarely acquire a starter who contributes for more than a year or two.

They mostly accumulate spare parts and see what they can do. Last year, it was Wade Miley. The year before that it was JA Happ. Both of those pitchers didn’t work out and the Mariners traded them at the trading deadline in July.

Is this the year that this trends stops, or does it once again continue? Jerry Dipoto brought in three starting pitchers this year (Chris Heston, Yovani Gallardo, and Drew Smyly), and once again they all had one thing in common, they came relatively cheap. Why were they cheap? Well, let’s just say the Mariners are hoping they don’t replicate their 2016 seasons.

The combined WAR of the three was a staggering -.2 WAR. Gallardo was the only one to finish with a positive WAR, but I don’t think he will be bragging about a .2 WAR.

However, is there a reason to be hopeful that these pitchers will turn around? Is King Felix really done or does he have the ability to bounce back to ace pitcher we all need him to be?

Keep scrolling through to find out all you need to know about the Mariners starting pitchers, and have all your questions answered.

Feb 28, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) pitches in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

SP- Felix Hernandez

IP- 205 W- 17 L- 8 ERA- 3.32 WHIP- 1.23 K-182 WAR- 3.8

Six-time all-star. Cy Young award winner. Five times he’s been voted in top 10 for Cy Young Award race. Felix is only one year removed from an All-Star Appearance, finishing top 7 for the Cy Young award, and having a 4.4 WAR. Yet, all we seem to hear is that Felix is no longer the ace he once was. His velocity is down, and his career is on a downward spiral.

So the question is, which Felix are we going to see this year? The Felix of last year or the Felix who posted his worst year statistically since 2006.

Truthfully, as much as I hate to say it, I don’t think we will ever see the dominant Felix Hernandez again. The Felix who struck out over 200 batters for 6 straight years. The Felix who made batters look absolutely foolish.

The innings just took too much of a toll on him. From 2009 to 2015 Felix averaged about 228 innings a year. And he never had an extensive injury until last year. That’s both miraculous and scary.

Coming off of an injury, and all those innings pitched, it’s hard to imagine Felix returning to a Cy Young form.

However, I don’t think that means he won’t be an All-Star or the best pitcher on our team. Felix doesn’t need to be a top 5 pitcher in baseball to be valuable to the Mariners. As long as he stays consistent, and adapts to the fact that his fastball isn’t what it used to be he will be fine.

Just last week on Team Venezuela when he pitched against the USA, he posted a line which I think we should be expecting to see throughout the season. He threw 5 innings of shutout baseball, with only 3 strikeouts.

However, the most important thing from that start is that he walked nobody which is something Felix struggled with mightily last year.

If Felix can adapt to being a pitcher less reliant on speed, I think we will see another All-Star worthy season, and a pitcher capable of leading our pitching staff.

Sep 20, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma (18) throws against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

SP- Hisashi Iwakuma

IP- 165 W- 11 L- 7 ERA- 3.95 WHIP- 1.27 K-118 WAR- 2.1

The biggest surprise last offseason was the resigning of Iwakuma. Iwakuma initially signed with the Dodgers, but after failing his physical, he signed with the Mariners.

I think every Mariners fan breathed a collective sigh of relief as Iwakuma is a reliable pitcher who will never be an ace, but who every Mariners fan trusts to be productive.

Personally, Iwakuma will always have a special place in my heart as I had the privilege of attending his no-hitter. However, I will be the first one to admit, that Iwakuma is no longer the same pitcher as he was when he pitched that no-hitter and the stats back that up.

Last year, Iwakuma, although productive, saw a dramatic increase in his ERA, and his k/9 innings fell from 7.7 k/9 to 6.6 k/9, which was the lowest in his career.

People tend to forget that Iwakuma is 35 years old. He was a 31-year-old rookie, and he is aging and no longer at the peak of his career. Not many pitchers peak in their second year in the majors, but not many players make their MLB debut at 31 either.

Iwakuma will have a solid year, but he’s sadly a year or two from being on his way out. Expect this to perhaps be his last year in Mariner blue, but it expect it to be a productive one, but not necessarily anything special like we saw of him in 2013.

Mar 9, 2017; Mesa, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher James Paxton (65) throws against the Chicago Cubs in the first inning during a spring training game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports /

SP- James Paxton

IP- 182 W- 13 L- 9 ERA- 3.58 WHIP- 1.15 K-176 WAR- 2.3

Chris Towers at CBS sports referenced an amazing stat of James Paxton that was brought to his attention by BrooksBaseball.com. James Paxton hit 99 MPH on his fastball 54 times in 2016.

Why is that so special, though? Aroldis Chapman is throwing 100 MPH+ regularly.

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However, James Paxton before 2016 had only hit 99 MPH one time in his life. When Paxton tweaked his mechanics before the 2016 season, he experienced a serious increase in velocity.

Paxton struck out almost one batter per inning, and he showed glimpses of truly being an ace. Is this the year Paxton gets it together and becomes the ace that he is destined to be? I don’t think so.

I think Paxton is still a year or two away from being a #1 or #2 option in a rotation. Paxton shows that he has the ability to change and adapt, but he still has more changing and adapting to do. His changeup is by far his weakest pitch, and he still has work to do in figuring out how to face righties.

I think he will put a lot more of the pieces together this year, but he is still a year or two away from figuring it out completely. Also, he will most likely be on some sort of inning limitation this year as the Mariners want to preserve his arm for the long-term future.

Sep 20, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Smyly (33) throws a pitch during the second inning against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

SP- Drew Smyly

IP- 162 W- 8 L- 8 ERA- 3.98 WHIP- 1.33 K-159 WAR- 1.1

At 11:32 AM on January 11th, the Mariners tweeted that they had acquired Shae Simmons and Mallek Smith from the Atlanta Braves.

Exactly 77 minutes the Mariners sent out another tweet. They had sent Mallek Smith and two other players to the Rays for Drew Smyly.

It was a lot to take in in a short amount of time, but all of a sudden, we had another starting pitcher to strengthen our rotation.

Drew Smyly is that stereotypical pitcher who has all that is necessary to succeed, but never quite puts it all together, whether due to injury or something else. In his first fully healthy year in which he was able to make 30 starts, he produced a WAR of exactly 0.0.

Yet before that, despite only starting over 20 games in one season, he had never produced a WAR below 1.6.

So here’s the picture that we have. An extremely capable pitcher who every time he gets going, gets injured, but in that short season, he will produce a great year. On the other hand, the one year he manages to completely stay healthy he struggles.

Will Smyly able to perform, but stay healthy an entire season? His history says no, and I’m sure he will hit the DL at some point, but while he is healthy if he can just get back to that 1.6 WAR, I don’t think anyone will be complaining.

Mar 4, 2017; Salt River Pima-Maricopa, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo (49) throws during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies during a spring training game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /

SP- Yovani Gallardo

IP- 118 W- 6 L- 7 ERA- 4.82 WHIP- 1.42 K-97 WAR- .7

I used to be the biggest Yovani Gallardo fan. Emphasis on the “used”. When he was a Milwaukee Brewer, I remember always being that guy in Fantasy baseball who would draft him, and he rewarded me almost every year with a solid output.

However, now he is an anomaly of sorts. From 2007-2012 you knew exactly what you were getting from Gallardo. He was a 1.5-2.5 WAR player, and he was going to be consistently in that category.

However, in 2013, Gallardo’s career changed. All of a sudden he had a down year, in which he was downright awful and posted a .5 WAR. Then he got back to his normal ways, and in 2014 he posted a 2.5 WAR. People thought he was back to being his normal 1.5-2.5 self. Maybe 2013 was a fluke. Those happen.

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Then 2014 happened. Gallardo had the best year of his life after joining the Texas Rangers. Gallardo posted a career-best 4.1 WAR and was a fantastic pitcher for the Texas Rangers, which naturally landed him a large contract for the following year.

The Orioles signed him with high confidence that he would boost their rotation. But Gallardo was not a man who could be predicted and instead had the worst year of his life. He posted a 5.42 ERA which was the second worst in the Majors behind only James Shields and had a career-worst .2 WAR.

So which Gallardo are we going to see this year: Dr. Jekyll or Mr.Hyde?

Sadly, I think it’s the Mr. Hyde. His walk rate last year at 4.65 bb/9 was the worst of his career. His slider, which used to be one of his pitches, became the second worst slider in baseball. And he became a fly ball pitcher in a division where that wasn’t a good idea.

Being a fly-ball pitcher in Safeco isn’t the worst thing, and I don’t think he will replicate last year’s stats, but I think his days as a 1.5+ WAR player are over.

I think he is a player we move on from, either at the trading deadline or just at some point in the year where the Mariners realize maybe Ariel Miranda should get a chance to prove himself.

Next: Mariners Favorite Player Results

That’s the ultimate breakdown for the starting rotation. Soon I will break down the ultimate preview for the bullpen. Stay tuned for the rest of the previews before the season begins on April 4th.

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