Mariners Analysis: Wade Miley is on Thin Ice in Seattle

The Mariners will battle the White Sox on Tuesday night at Safeco Field, and it could be a make or break start for Wade Miley.

Wade Miley was expected to be a solidifying force in the middle of the Seattle Mariners’ rotation when he was acquired from the Boston Red Sox this offseason, but the veteran southpaw has been anything but consistent in 2016. His struggles on the mound have been frustrating to watch, and it appears that tonight’s outing against the Chicago White Sox could determine whether he remains in the M’s rotation moving forward.

With three off days scheduled between now and July 28, Scott Servais recently suggested that the Mariners may implement a temporary four man starting rotation. Felix Hernandez is set to return from the disabled list on Wednesday, Hisashi Iwakuma has been the only M’s starter to make all of his starts in 2016 and James Paxton is expected to start for Seattle on Friday in Toronto.

That leaves one remaining spot in the new look starting rotation. The potential candidates appear to be Miley, Wade LeBlanc and Mike Montgomery. LeBlanc fared well on Monday night, holding the White Sox to just 3 runs through 7 innings pitched. The 31-year-old lefty is 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA since joining the Mariners last month.

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Monty has arguably been the Mariners most dominant reliever in 2016, going 3-4 with a 2.34 ERA through 32 appearances. He has struck out 54 and issued 18 free passes across 61.2 innings of work. His last two outings have come as a starter, and he has done a nice job. Montgomery is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA as a starting pitcher this season.

Miley has been a disappointment for the Mariners so far this season. After posting a 3.92 ERA over his last 130 appearances prior to 2015, he has registered a dismal 5.44 ERA through 16 outings this year. His 6-6 record is not terrible, but he is allowing a team worst 1.446 walks/hits per inning.

The home run ball has been a constant concern for Miley during his brief time with the Mariners. After calling hitter friendly ballparks like Chase Field and Fenway Park home for his first five seasons, many expected his numbers to improve with the move to the Pacific Northwest. Prior to 2016, Miley had never allowed more than 23 homers in a single season. However, he has served up 15 round trippers already this year.

Miley enters Tuesday night’s affair with the White Sox having lost four consecutive decisions dating back to June 12. During his dubious streak, Miley has posted a 6.00 ERA and allowed the opposition to register a .322 batting average through 21 innings.

The next two weeks will be key for the Mariners, and they cannot afford to throw away games. Currently just 4.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays for the second wildcard in the American League, Seattle is in contention to finally end their lengthy playoff drought. However, as it stands right now, sending Miley to the mound every fifth day is not in the M’s best interest.

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I opened this article by suggesting that tonight’s start could be a make or break game for Miley. It’s certainly possible a stellar start from the 29-year-old is enough to sway Servais and Jerry Dipoto, but I believe they have already seen enough from Miley to decide whether he deserves a spot in the four man rotation.

Based on his performance this season, I have a hard time seeing Miley staying in the rotation after tonight. The real question becomes, do you send him to Tacoma? Or do you make him the long relief man in the bullpen?

Mike Montgomery and Wade LeBlanc are both out of minor-league options, Wade Miley is not. Monty and LeBlanc have pitched well enough to stay in Seattle, Miley has not. Montgomery and LeBlanc both have experience working out the bullpen, Miley does not.

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The decision is an obvious one to me, send Miley down to Tacoma. I highly doubt tonight will be the final start Miley makes for the Mariners in 2016, but it needs to be his last outing for the foreseeable future if Seattle plans on playing meaningful baseball in September and October.