Mariners Roundtable: Can the M’s Make the Playoffs in 2016?

The Seattle Mariners have not graced the postseason since 2001, but there is plenty of optimism playoff baseball will return to the Emerald City in 2016.

Monday was Opening day, and clearly things did not go according to plan for the Seattle Mariners. The M’s failed to generate a consistent attack on offense, and Felix Hernandez issued 5 free passes en route to picking up his first loss of the season. Ultimately, Seattle fell to the Texas Rangers in Arlington.

Opening Day is generally the most over analyzed day of the year for baseball fans, and I’m sure many of the Mariners’ faithful have their fingers hovering over the panic button already. Despite yesterday’s poor result, there was still plenty to be excited about. Robinson Cano clubbed a home run on Monday against Texas, a feat Robbie only accomplished once during the first 47 games of the 2015 season.

The American League in general is very hard to predict this year, and the American League West is even more muddled. The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros shocked the baseball world rising from the AL West basement in 2014 to the postseason last year. Both teams look strong heading into the 2016 campaign, but the new look M’s could present a challenge to their Texan rivals.

Today, the staff here at SoDo Mojo will lay down their predictions for how the Seattle Mariners will fare in 2016. Some believe the M’s will snap their postseason drought, while others still believe Seattle is a year or two away from competing for the AL West crown.

Next: Ben thinks the wildcard is a possibility for Seattle in 2016

Ben Garza – @Beniitec

The AL West is going to go down to the wire like it has the last few years. However the top two teams this season will be the Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros. The pitching staffs on these two teams will set them apart from the rest of the AL West over the long haul. At the end of the season the Houston Astros will win the AL West. The Seattle Mariners will take second. The Los Angeles Angels will be third, the Texas Rangers fourth, and the Oakland Athletics will end the year in the cellar. The Mariners record will be 89 wins and 73 losses. My realistic prediction is that the Mariners will win the Wild Card and make the one game playoff with this record.

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The M’s pitching staff is one of the best I’ve seen in a while. The top three starters, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Wade Miley don’t just have potential. They are proven veterans and can handle the rest of the AL West. That is really the key. If the Mariners can win most of their games against their division rivals, that catapults them ahead. The unknowns are Taijuan Walker and Nate Karns. They have some great upside, but we won’t know how these two will fare in a long season.

The Mariners offense is strong and healthy being led by Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz. There’s more power potential there than Seattle has had in a long time. And true to Jerry Dipoto’s philosophy, there is length in the lineup and on the bench with low strikeout and high on base percentage players.

The numbers on paper look very promising. But yesterday’s numbers don’t win tomorrow’s games. Where the Mariners may have weaknesses is in their relatively new bullpen and their rookie manager. It will be interesting to see how this team fares in the later innings and how Scott Servais handles the management of this team and specifically the bullpen. I also know that this team has some depth down at the Triple-A level. So there is help if the big club has some issues along the way.

Next: Riley hopes the M's can squeak into the postseason

Riley Baker – @RBake6

84-78, 2nd in AL West
2nd Wild Card Spot

With all the additions and improvements Jerry Dipoto made to the Mariners roster during the offseason, I think this team will get back to winning ways in 2016. I see the M’s finishing in second place in the AL West, right behind the Astros and just in front of the Angels. After the final game of the season, the Mariners will be sitting in the second Wild Card spot, set to play the Red Sox in the one game playoff.

The biggest problem this team faced last year was the bullpen. The M’s relievers accounted for 36 losses and 24 blown saves. They gave up 12 walk-offs and also had a combined ERA of 4.15. With the complete reconstruction Dipoto made to the bullpen, the hope is that this part of the team will see dramatic improvements.

The bullpen wasn’t all that was improved. Wade Miley was added to the rotation and will slot nicely in the 3rd spot behind Hisashi Iwakuma. The 5th spot is still up for grabs with a healthy competition between James Paxton and Nate Karns, both of which would be formidable 5th starters.

Dipoto also made some improvements to the offense, including Norichika Aoki who will be sitting atop the lineup. With his career OBP of .353, he will give the middle of the order plenty of opportunities to drive him in. The addition of Adam Lind adds depth to the lineup, while Leonys Martin will add speed on the base paths at the bottom of the lineup. If Robinson Cano puts up slightly better numbers this year and Nelson Cruz performs anywhere near how he did last year, this lineup should be very fun to watch, especially come October.

Next: Nick expects October baseball in 2016

Chad Crawford – @ChadCrawfordPDX

AL West Standings:
1: Astros 94-68

2: Mariners 89-73

3: Rangers 84-78

4: Angels 79-83

5: A’s 72-90

I feel like the acquisitions of Aoki and Lind will greatly improve two of Seattle’s major problems from last year in guys getting on base, and driving runners home.
Pair those acquisitions with a solid first full season from Marte, and a bounce-back year from Cano, and the offence should be able to finally help the Mariners make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Next: Brian is skeptical, but hopeful at the same time

Brian Helberg – @BrianHelberg

The Seattle Mariners were a colossal disappointment in 2015. A year after missing the playoffs by just a single game, the M’s were a train wreck in every possible way last season. There is a new regime in Seattle and plenty of fresh faces, but I’m not ready to buy into the new plan just yet.

M’s fans have seen a lot of well respected players come to Seattle in the past and fail to replicate their previous success. The Mariners are hoping for big things from Adam Lind and Nori Aoki, and hopefully they both prove to be as good as advertised.

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Fernando Rodney is gone, and I think we will see big improvement in the bullpen this season. However, Steve Cishek is fresh off the worst season of his career and he was signed this winter to serve as the M’s closer in 2016. I like Cishek, and I hope he has put his struggles behind him.

Taijuan Walker should continue to progress this season, and he could even be a surprise All-Star. Wade Miley will give Seattle 200 innings and should be a perfect number three pitcher in the rotation. I like Nate Karns, and having a pitcher of James Paxton’s caliber pitching in Tacoma is a luxury.

The two players I’m most concerned about are Robinson Cano and Hisashi Iwakuma. Cano mashed in the second half of last season, but his awful first half essentially killed the M’s season. His homer yesterday is encouraging, but he needs to keep it up if Seattle hopes to contend in 2016. Kuma pitched a no-hitter last August, but he has registered a 4.40 ERA across his last 27 outings. He has also had issues staying healthy, and he failed his physical with the Los Angeles Dodgers this winter before resigning with Seattle.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the Mariners this season, but I’m not ready to anoint them the new champs of the AL West. I believe Seattle will tally 87 wins this season while losing 75 contests. That should be good enough for second place behind the Houston Astros. Hopefully 87 wins is enough to secure one of the wildcard spots in the American League.

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Texas should finish third, but I could see them leapfrogging Seattle for second place if their pitching can hold up. The Angels feature the best player in the sport and can never be taken lightly. However, I expect Mike Trout and the Halos to finish fourth this year. Oakland is the obvious choice to finish last in the AL West, so they will probably win 97 games and the division.