Mariners Analysis: Spring Training Numbers Mean Absolutely Nothing

Just a friendly reminder to Mariners’ fans not pay too much attention to spring training numbers.

As the first Spring Training game nears (today at 12:10pm PST vs the Padres), a friendly reminder is needed to not overreact to the results of spring training games and stats. It is fun to watch these games and see how new players look in Northwest Green, and finally watch baseball after a long, wet (at least up here in Washington) winter. There is something about Spring Training that warms the heart and gives some hope in a gloomy world.

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This does not mean we should throw the remote at the TV and curse Robinson Cano’s name for hitting .230 after 10 spring games or if Felix Hernandez gives up 4 or 5 runs. It’s not good for our health and frankly, these games don’t matter. Spring training is about getting warmed up, tuned up and fired up for the regular season. It’s about getting better. You want Felix to get those mistake pitches out of his system in March rather than in August. You want Nelson Cruz to get any holes in his swing filled now rather than later.

The other side is true as well. Just because a guy hits .350 in spring doesn’t mean he is going to have an All-Star season. There is plenty of bad pitching in the early parts of spring. Same goes with great pitching numbers. Guys are still finding their swings. Don’t read too much into it.

Here are a few examples of why you need not raise your blood pressure at spring training results…

Robinson Cano hit .364 with a .902 OPS in 19 spring games last season. His first three months of the regular season, he hit a dismal .238 with a punchless .621 OPS.

Mike Zunino had well-documented struggles throughout the 2015 season. He hit .174, and was eventually sent to Triple-A Tacoma to fix his bat. This was after a fantastic spring where he hit .352 and 7 home runs in 21 spring games.

Nori Aoki is one of the better on-base hitters in baseball. He posted a .353 on-base percentage last year and his average was .287. In 23 spring games, he hit just .194 with an on-base percentage of .293.

Some non-Mariners examples from last year…

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Colorado Rockies All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado had a very pedestrian spring, hitting just .254 with an OBP of .273. Then he tore it up in the regular season to the tune of a .287 average, .323 OBP and .898 OPS with 42 home runs.

2015 NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrietta won 22 games for the Chicago Cubs. Opponents hit just .185 off of him in his dominant year. However, Arrietta didn’t look that dominant in the Cactus League. Batters hit .273 and he nearly had half of his home runs allowed total in 2015 in just a few spring starts.

Now talking about wins and losses of your favorite team…

2015

Oakland Athletics, 22-11, first in Cactus league

2015 record: 68-94, last in AL West

Texas Rangers: 9-19, last in Cactus League

2015 record: 88-74, AL West champs

Boston Red Sox, 17-12, 3rd in Grapefruit League

2015 record: 78-84, last in AL East

Minnesota Twins: 13-16, 12th out of 15 in Grapefruit League

2015 record: 83-79, 2nd in AL Central

Next: Find Out Which M's Games will be Televised this Spring

So you see? Just enjoy watching Spring Training. Don’t read too much into the wins, losses, home runs and ERA. Watch your favorite players get better. Just enjoy watching baseball for the first time since October. As long as the Mariners are staying healthy, this spring will be considered a great success. Here’s to another fun and enjoyable month of Spring Training baseball in the Cactus League.

Just a friendly reminder to Mariners’ fans not pay too much attention to spring training numbers.

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