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Seattle Mariners Season Preview: Nori Aoki
Nori Aoki will bring consistency to the leadoff role in 2016
Nori Aoki was signed to a one year, $5.5 million deal in December and will add athleticism to the Seattle Mariners’ remodeled outfield. With Leonys Martin in center field and Aoki in right field, Jerry Dipoto hopes their speed will be able to cover the large Safeco Field outfield.
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The 34-year-old put up solid numbers last year with San Francisco, with a slash of .287/.353/.380 in 93 games. He consistently puts the ball in play and had a contact rate of 91.6% in 2015.
Aoki has spent 4 seasons in the majors. His first two were as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers in 2012 and 2013. He was then traded to Kansas City where he spent the 2014 season with the Royals before signing on with the Giants for the 2015 campaign.
Before coming to America, Aoki spent eight seasons in the Japan Central league as a member of the Yakult Swallows where he averaged a slash of .329/.402/.454 and hit 84 home runs.
The Good
Aoki has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the past 4 seasons, hitting .288, .286, .285, and .287 respectively. He puts the ball in play a lot and has a career strikeout rate of 7.7 percent.
His best year came in his age 30 rookie year with Milwaukee where he had a slugging percentage of .433 and hit 10 home runs with 50 RBIs. That kind of power from Aoki is very unlikely to be seen again, especially after leaving the very hitter friendly Miller Park. But power is not what you’re paying for with Aoki anymore than paying for the taste in cough syrup.
Something that stood out to me when looking through his stats is Aoki’s ability to spray the ball to all parts of the field. Looking at his percentage of balls but in play over his career, he has hit 32.6 percent to his pull side, 32.6 percent the opposite way, and 34.8 percent to center field. In an age where no major league club is afraid to heavily shift their defense, a hitter that can hit to all fields consistently is very valuable.
The Bad
Aoki is also a bit of a free swinger, swinging at 43.7 percent of his pitches seen during his career. Although he makes a lot of contact, he will draw very few walks. Over his career, he has only walked in 7.8 percent of his at bats. Being a leadoff hitter, I would like to see more walks, but as long as he is making contact and finding other ways to get on base, he should be very productive in the leadoff role.
Although Aoki is very quick in the outfield, he has been known to take unorthodox routes to the ball. This hasn’t affected the outcomes of plays however, as he has only committed 8 errors over the four seasons he’s spent in the majors.
The Future
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Baseball Reference projects Aoki to have a slash of .277/.343/.369 over 451 plate appearances in 2016. They also say he will have 35 walks and strikeout 43 times. Fangraphs is a little less hopeful, predicting a slash of .270/.332/.360.
The 5-foot-9, 180-pound outfielder will almost certainly continue to get on base this year. If he can leadoff games and set up RBI opportunities for guys like Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, and Robinson Cano, then this lineup could be a lot of fun to watch.
Next: Mariners Spring Training Recap: Day 1
Mariners fans have not seen a consistent leadoff hitter since Ichiro. I’m not saying Nori Aoki will be the next Ichiro because he’s not. Don’t expect 200 hits and 25 stolen bases. Aoki is aging, but he is still getting on base and I think he will remind a lot of fans of Ichiro with the way he handles the bat. I think Aoki is an excellent addition to the Mariners, and I’m excited to see if he can help bring playoff baseball back to the Emerald City in 2016.