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Seattle Mariners Season Preview: James Paxton
The Mariners look for consistency from Paxton in 2016
The Mariners rotation had a rough season last year, first losing Hisashi Iwakuma to the disabled list in April and then James Paxton on May 29. Paxton strained his middle finger tendon on his throwing hand after a pitch, and did not return from the DL until September 13.
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The big Canadian native has never started more than 13 games in a season, but will look to find more consistency this season. With Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma anchoring the rotation in front of Wade Miley and Taijuan Walker, that leaves the fifth spot open to Nate Karns or Paxton. Both Karns and Paxton would be viable fifth starters, and maybe a six-man rotation would suffice?
Okay, probably not. I’m sure most people, other than opposing hitters, would prefer Felix pitching every fifth day as opposed to every sixth day, but maybe that’s just me. Either way, it will be interesting to watch and see how spring goes for Paxton, and if he makes the rotation out of camp.
The Good
Paxton has lost 20 pounds over the offseason in the hopes of having the health and stamina to pitch a full season. In each of the last two seasons he made 13 starts. Paxton had his best season in 2014, pitching 74 innings while going 6-4 with a 3.04 ERA. In the 2015 season his numbers dropped a bit with 67 innings pitched while going 3-4 with a 3.90 ERA.
Going into his age 27 season, Paxton is still young, and if it weren’t for injury he could be entering his prime. If everything goes well for him in spring, the southpaw could come out of camp as a part of the starting rotation. When things are going good for Paxton, he can handle any Major League lineup.
With a career WHIP of 1.25 and opposing batting average of .229, Paxton has the ability to keep hitters off the base paths. When he’s throwing strikes and hitting his spots with the strong downward plane he creates, he can be nearly unhittable. With the luxury of pitching at Safeco Field, there is a lot to like about Paxton this season.
The Bad
Last year Paxton never found his consistency. The University of Kentucky product would start out hitting his spots but then get fatigued by the fourth or fifth inning and start elevating his pitches. Hopefully the weight loss will help to improve his stamina and allow him to stay healthy. You never know with injury, but for whatever reason it always seems nearly impossible to shake the injury bug once you’ve got it.
If Paxton loses the fifth spot in the rotation to Karns, he will start the year in AAA. I don’t think that would be the worst thing in the world, you can never have enough pitching depth. Having an arm like Paxton’s to fill in should anything happen to the starting five, should be seen as a luxury. We can only hope that whichever starter is down in Tacoma will be ready to go once their name is called north to Seattle.
The Future
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The projections for Paxton this year don’t have a ton of faith that he can pitch a full season this year. Baseball Reference projects him to throw 101 innings while going 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA. Fan graphs is less excited about Paxton, predicting him to pitch only 72 innings over 13 starts while going 4-5 with a 4.11 ERA.
I would have loved to see a little more optimism for the Mariner’s former fourth round pick this season, but you can’t really blame them. History shows that he hasn’t been able to play a full season yet in his young career, so why should this year be any different? Because we’re Mariners fans, that’s why. We always hope for next year to be different. And maybe, just maybe, this year really will be different and come October we will be praising Jerry Dipoto as being our savior.
Next: Franklin Gutierrez Looks to Stay Healthy Going Into the 2016 Season
Getting back to reality, I think Paxton has a lot going for him this year and could contribute to a playoff run for the Mariners. Whether he starts the year with the big club or comes up to make some key starts along the way, Paxton will be a key part of the Mariners roster. Only time will tell if the big 6-foot-4 lefty can have a breakout year and provide the force needed at the backend of the rotation to make a playoff run.