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Mariners Season Preview: Nate Karns
Will Nate Karns win the final spot in the Mariners starting rotation?
Nate Karns was the centerpiece of the return package the Seattle Mariners received from the Tampa Bay Rays for Logan Morrison, Brad Miller and Danny Farquhar. Karns is expected to compete this spring with James Paxton and Mike Montgomery for the final spot in the M’s starting rotation.
Originally drafted in the 12th round of the 2009 draft by the Washington Nationals, Karns reached the big leagues in 2013. After making three starts in Washington, Karns was shipped to the Rays as part of the Jose Lobaton trade following his debut season.
The Good
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It was in Tampa that the 28-year-old came into his own. He went 7-5 in 2015 while posting a 3.67 ERA across 27 appearances. He limited the opposition to 1.279 walks/hits per inning.
Karns has pitched nearly 450 innings in the minor-leagues, and he learned how to get hitters out along the way. He allowed just 8.1 hits per 9 innings in 2015. Karns also racked up 145 strikeouts in 147 innings. He is a consistent strike thrower, and he issued just 56 free passes last season.
The Texas Tech alum features a three pitch arsenal. He leans heavily on a low 90’s fastball, using it 58% of the time in 2015. Karns’ out pitch is his curveball, and he mixes in an improving changeup. Typically, three pitches is less than ideal for a starting pitcher, but Karns is able to throw all three pitches for strikes.
The Bad
The long ball has been Nate Karns’ Achillies heel in the big leagues. He allowed 19 home runs in 2015, and he has served up 27 round trippers across 171 career innings. Karns has been touched up for 1.4 home runs per 9 innings since being called up in 2013, and that will need to improve moving forward. Thankfully, he now calls the spacious confines of Safeco Field home.
The only other issue is Karns’ lack of experience. He has made just 31 starts during his career, and prior to 2015 he had never made more than 3 starts in a single season. Karns is somewhat of an unknown commodity in Seattle, thus it’s hard to predict what the Mariners will get out of him this season.
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The Future
The professional prognosticators at Baseball Reference and FanGraphs are expecting a slight regression for Karns in 2016. Baseball Reference is predicting he will go 7-6 while posting a 3.92 ERA across 133 innings. FanGraphs is projecting Karns will go 7-8 with a 4.06 ERA in 23 starts.
It appears Karns’ performance in Cactus League action will determine where he begins the 2016 season. My belief is that the Mariners prefer to have James Paxton in their starting rotation. Karns may not start the year in Seattle, but there is little doubt he will toe the rubber at Safeco Field this season.
Next: Mariners Top 20 Prospects: #16 CF Austin Cousino
Nate Karns is an efficient and effective young pitcher. He may never be a top of the rotation arm, but he has the talent to be a solid starting pitcher in the big leagues. Karns’ stuff may not “wow” fans, but he should be a valuable member of the Mariners in 2016.