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Mariners Analysis: Who Should be the M’s 5th Starter in 2016?
Aug 2, 2014; Baltimore, MD, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher James Paxton (65) pitches in the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
Who do you believe should round out the Seattle Mariners’ starting rotation in 2016?
The Seattle Mariners have transformed their roster this offseason. Jerry Dipoto and his staff have made more transactions than any other team in baseball. They have addressed weaknesses in the lineup, the bullpen and the starting rotation. However, with great change comes great insecurity.
It appears that the top four in the M’s starting rotation are set in stone. Felix Hernandez will once again toe the rubber on opening day for Seattle. Hisashi Iwakuma‘s free agent deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers feel apart, and he was resigned to serve as the Mariners’ number two pitcher. Wade Miley was acquired from the Boston Red Sox, and he is penciled into the three hole. Taijuan Walker established himself as a quality young arm last season, and he will be the number four pitcher in 2016.
This leaves the final spot in the Mariners’ starting rotation to be fought for in spring training. That is precisely the topic we will discuss tonight. There are three main candidates for the gig right now; James Paxton, Nate Karns and Mike Montgomery.
We will begin the slideshow with James Paxton, who made 13 starts last season for Seattle. Make sure you click through to the final slide to cast your vote for who you believe should be the M’s fifth starter in 2016.
Next: James Paxton
May 17, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher James Paxton (65) throws a pitch in the sixth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
James Paxton – LHP
The 27-year-old southpaw was limited to just 13 starts last season, as he yet again struggled to stay healthy. James Paxton posted a record of 3-4 with a 3.90 ERA in 2015. He tallied 56 strikeouts and issued 29 free passes across 67 innings of work. Paxton allowed a career worst, 1.433 walks/hits per inning.
Prior to going down on May 28, Paxton was pitching as well as anyone in baseball. Pax-Man was on a roll, going 3-1 and registering a 1.63 ERA during his previous 6 starts. His best performance came against the Boston Red Sox at Safeco Field on May 17, where he hurled 8 shutout frames en route to earning the win.
When healthy, Paxton is one of the better young lefties in baseball. The Ladner, BC product has gone 12-8 with a 3.16 ERA over the course of 30 outings in the big leagues. Paxton has struck out 136 and walked 65 in 165 innings.
Due to Paxton’s small workload in 2015, the Mariners opted to send him to the Arizona Fall League. Paxton did not fare well against the best young talent in the game, going 2-4 with a 4.60 ERA across 7 starts. However, his 3.63 strikeout to walk ratio suggests he was more effective than his ERA leads you to believe.
Baseball Reference is excepting a better season from James Paxton in 2016. They believe he will go 6-5 with a 3.65 ERA through 101 innings next year. The experts at FanGraphs are slightly less optimistic. They predict Paxton will go 4-5 with a 4.11 ERA across 72 innings.
Next: Nate Karns
Aug 14, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nathan Karns delivers a pitch to the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
Nate Karns – RHP
The 28-year-old right-hander is the new kid on the block in Seattle. The Mariners acquired Nate Karns from the Tampa Bay Rays in November as part of the return package for Logan Morrison, Brad Miller and Danny Farquhar.
Karns excelled in his first full season in the big leagues, going 7-5 and registering a 3.67 ERA across 27 games in 2015. He struck out 145 and walked 56 through 147 innings of work. Karns limited the opposition to 1.279 walks/hit per inning.
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Originally selected by the Washington Nationals in the 12th round of the 2009 draft, Karns has put together a relatively underwhelming track record in the minor-leagues. He spent much of the 2014 season with Rays AAA affiliate in Durham, where he went 9-9 with a 5.08 ERA.
Baseball Reference is projecting a tiny step backwards for Nate Karns in 2016. They believe he will go 7-6 while posting a 3.92 ERA across 133 innings. FanGraphs is expecting similar results from the Texas Tech alum next season. They are predicting he will go 7-8 with a 4.07 ERA through 128 innings.
Next: Mike Montgomery
Jun 23, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Mike Montgomery (37) throws against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Montgomery – LHP
The gangly 26-year-old has to be viewed as the underdog in the fight to win the final spot in the Mariners’ starting rotation. Mike Montgomery was acquired by the M’s from the Rays last spring in exchange for Erasmo Ramirez.
Not much was expected from the southpaw, but Monty proved to be a valuable member of the M’s pitching staff. He went 4-6 with a 4.60 ERA across 16 starts for the Mariners in 2015. Montgomery fanned 64 and walked 37 through 90 innings pitched. The opposition managed to tally 1.433 walks/hits per inning.
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Those numbers may not jump off the page, but Montgomery was stellar during the first 7 outings of his big league career. Monty went 4-2 with a 1.62 ERA through his first 50 innings. He recorded his first career shutout against the Kansas City Royals on June 23, allowing just 5 hits and striking out 10. Montgomery followed up his impressive performance against the Royals with another shutout, this time against the San Diego Padres on June 30. He surrendered just 1 hit and stuck out 7 en route to earning the win.
Baseball Reference is projecting a decent season for Mike Montgomery in 2016. They anticipate he will go 5-6 with a 4.29 ERA across 105 innings. The mathematicians over at FanGraphs do not expect Monty to make much of an impact next season in Seattle. They believe he will go 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA over the course of 19 innings.
Next: Vote
Apr 7, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Nathan Karns (51) throws a pitch in the fourth inning of the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Vote
All three of these pitchers should get an opportunity to compete for the fifth starter job next spring in Peoria. James Paxton and Nate Karns are the most likely candidates, but Mike Montgomery deserves some consideration following his impressive debut campaign.
Next: Who Should Hit Leadoff for Seattle in 2016? (Poll)
Personally, I hope we see James Paxton in the Mariners’ starting rotation. I’m a fan of having two southpaws in the rotation, and I believe Pax-Man’s ceiling is slightly higher than that of Nate Karns. Monty is out of minor league options, and I expect him to take up a spot in the M’s bullpen when the club heads north to Seattle.