Mariners Analysis: Should the M’s Re-Sign ‘Kuma?

Halloween is officially in the rear view mirror, and the World Series is seemingly nearing it’s conclusion. The 2015 baseball season will soon be just a memory, but the hot stove is sure to keep fans warm this winter. Free Agency is set to begin five days after the World Series concludes, and the Seattle Mariners have some very interesting decisions ahead of them.

Today, we will discuss what should be done with impending free agent hurler, Hisashi Iwakuma. The Tokyo, Japan native went 9-5 and registered a 3.54 ERA through 20 starts in 2015. ‘Kuma fanned 111 and walked 21 through 129.1 innings pitched. The highlight of his season came on August 12, when Iwakuma pitched the fifth no-hitter in M’s history.

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The 34-year-old right-hander had an inauspicious start to his season, going 0-1 with a 6.61 ERA through his first three outings. Iwakuma was placed on the disabled list following his start on April 20, and missed nearly three months dealing with a back issue. He was much improved after rejoining Seattle in July, going 9-4 and posting a 3.10 ERA across his final 17 appearances.

Reasons to Keep ‘Kuma

When Hisashi Iwakuma is locating his pitches, he is extremely difficult to hit. He finished the season with six consecutive starts in which he pitched at least 6 innings. ‘Kuma allowed 18 home runs this season, but limited the opposition to just 9 long balls during his last 16 outings.

Despite the fact that Iwakuma will be 35 next April, age is not really a factor. He is a finesse righty, who generates great movement on all his pitches and lives on the corners. ‘Kuma’s numbers have been very consistent since joining the M’s in 2012. He averaged 7.7 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2015, which bested his career mark of 7.5. He also issued fewer free passes, as he beat his career average of 1.7 walks per 9 innings by walking 1.5 hitters this season.

The Mariners’ starting rotation is filled with question marks at the moment. Felix Hernandez is locked in as the ace in 2016 and Taijuan Walker was brilliant at times, but the other three spots appear to be up for grabs. ‘Kuma is a legitimate middle of the rotation arm who has shown a sporadic ability to be an All Star caliber hurler.

I think Iwakuma is exactly the kind of pitcher Jerry Dipoto and Scott Servais want. Dipoto and Servais have both suggested that they are looking for great strikeout to walk ratios this winter. It’s hard to imagine they will find someone better than ‘Kuma in this regard. He registered a 5.32 strikeout to walk ratio in 2015, and sports a career 4.34 ratio.

Reasons to Let ‘Kuma Walk

Injuries have been a common theme for Hisashi Iwakuma over the past couple of seasons. He missed the first month of the 2014 campaign with a finger ailment, and this past season he missed nearly three months with a back problem. Iwakuma is not getting any younger, and more time on the disabled list is likely in the years to come.

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Prior to ‘Kuma catching fire this summer, many pundits feared he would never be the same pitcher who finished third in the 2013 Cy Young balloting. From August 24, 2014 to July 6, 2015, Iwkauma went 3-4 and posted a dismal 7.53 ERA across 11 starts. The opposition hit .310 against him and clubbed a remarkable 15 home runs in 53.1 innings. Iwakuma was awful, and it’s shocking he was able to find himself over the final few months this year.

Should Seattle Re-Sign ‘Kuma?

The projections are reasonably favorable for Hisashi Iwakuma in 2016. Baseball Reference predicts ‘Kuma will go 10-6 and post a 3.59 ERA through 143 innings pitched. FanGraphs is expecting the veteran right-hander to start 32 games in 2016, going 12-11 with a 3.49 ERA.

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The short answer to the question is yes, but the actual answer is a tad bit more complicated. The Mariners should definitely attempt to bring Iwakuma back for the 2016 season, but only if the price is right. Ideally, Dipoto re-signs Iwkauma to a 2 year deal worth somewhere in the neighbourhood of $25 million dollars. The free agent market is flush with top notch pitchers, and ‘Kuma should fall into the second tier of available arms.