Mariners News: Updating the M's Prospects in the AFL

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Mar 4, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; A general view of stadium seats before a spring training baseball game between the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Fall League is considered the top prospect showcase in baseball. Every fall, the best young players in the game gather in the desert to give fans a glimpse of the future stars. James Paxton, D.J. Peterson, Paul Fry, Tyler Smith, David Rollins, Tyler O’Neill and Ryan Horstman are representing the Seattle Mariners this year.

Tonight, we will take a look at how the M’s contingent is faring thus far in the AFL. We are roughly a week and a half into the season, and the Mariners’ prospects are carrying the Peoria Javelins. We will start the list by discussing the most recognizable name on the list, James Paxton.

Next: Pax-Man

May 12, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher James Paxton (65) throws against the San Diego Padres during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

James Paxton – LHP

The 26-year-old Ladner, BC product is amongst the older participants in the AFL. James Paxton is also one of the few players with multiple years of big league experience. Injuries derailed his 2015 season, and Pax-Man is in Arizona hoping to tack on a few innings before shutting it down for the winter.

Paxton is doing a pretty nice job against the weaker competition, going 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA through his first three starts. He has fanned 9 and walked 3 while allowing a pair runs on 12 hits across 10.1 innings. I’m sure he will attempt to allow fewer baserunners in the coming weeks, as he currently sports a 1.45 WHIP.

Many expected James Paxton to play a big role this past season with Seattle, but a strained middle finger tendon in his throwing hand killed those dreams. Paxton finished the year with a 3-4 record and a 3.90 ERA through 13 outings. 2015 was the second consecutive year he was limited to just 13 starts. Keeping Pax-Man healthy next season will be key to the M’s success.

Next: Peterson is Finding his Swing

Mar 15, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman D.J. Peterson (46) bats against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

D.J. Peterson – 3B

The Mariners third best prospect has shined in the early part of the AFL season. D.J. Peterson is hitting .280 with 1 double, 2 home runs and a team leading 7 RBI through 7 games. He has registered a .333 on base percentage and slugged .560 across 25 at bats.

Peterson entered the season ranked as the 50th best prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com, but he failed to live up to the hype. The 23-year-old started the year with the M’s double-A affiliate in Jackson. Peterson hit a measly .223 with 7 home runs and 44 RBI through 93 games. Despite his ugly stat line, Seattle opted to promote him to Tacoma in early August. Peterson went 3 for 14 with the Rainiers before an Achilles injury ended his season.

The former top prospect definitely took a step backwards in 2015, but his stock is once again rising in the Arizona heat. Peterson is a powerful right-handed bat, and I expect him to make his Mariners debut at some point during the 2016 season. First base seems like the most likely position for D.J. at the next level.

Next: Fry is getting Fried

Apr 27, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Seattle Mariners hat and baseball glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Mariners defeated the Rangers 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Paul Fry – LHP

Paul Fry has gotten off to a rough start this fall with the Javelins. The 23-year-old southpaw is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA across 4 relief appearances. He has struck out 1 and walked 1 while allowing 3 runs on 10 hits through 3.1 innings pitched. Fry has allowed a gaudy 3.00 walks/hits per inning.

Fry’s poor performance in the AFL is a bit surprising given his success this past season in the minor leagues. The former 17th round pick split 2015 between the Bakersfield Blaze and the Jackson Generals. Through 28 appearances with the Blaze, Fry went 4-3, posted a 2.13 ERA and was named a California League All Star. His numbers actually improved after the promotion, as he registered a stingy 1.80 ERA across 25 innings in Jackson.

The Mariners view Paul Fry as a left-handed reliever, and he could potentially toe the rubber at Safeco Field next season. The ability to locate pitches is key for any relief pitcher, and Fry’s 4.71 strikeout to walk ratio in 2015 was very impressive.

Next: Tyler Smith is on Fire

Mar 4, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners shortstop Tyler Smith (78) flips the ball to second base against the San Diego Padres during a spring training baseball game at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Tyler Smith – SS

The Oregon State alum is making some serious noise thus far in the AFL. Tyler Smith’s .385 batting average and .448 on base percentage are both tops on the Javelins. Smith has also contributed 1 double, 1 triple, 1 home run, 3 RBI and 1 stolen base through 7 games. He has worked a pair of free passes, and has struck out just 3 times in 26 at bats.

The Mariners selected Smith in the 8th round of the 2013 draft, and the middle infielder has exceeded expectations at every level. He spent 2015 with the Jackson Generals, posting a .271/.361/.354 slash line across 520 plate appearances. Smith had 24 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, 32 RBI and swiped 10 bases.

Tyler Smith has a similar build and makeup to that of Chris Taylor. Both players are solid defenders with plus athleticism, but neither guy has much pop. I expect the 24-year-old to begin next season in Tacoma with the Rainiers. Becoming a utility infielder is likely his ceiling in the big leagues.

Next: David Rollins

Jul 8, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher David Rollins (59) throws against the Detroit Tigers during the ninth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

David Rollins – LHP

The Mariners acquired David Rollins last offseason from the Houston Astros via the rule 5 draft. Rollins pitched very well in spring training, but was given a 50-game ban by MLB in late March following a positive drug test. The 25-year-old lefty rejoined Seattle in July, and finished the season with a 0-2 record and a 7.56 ERA. Rollins tallied 21 strikeouts and issued 8 free passes across 25 innings.

Due to Rollins missing the first half of the season, Seattle opted to send him to the AFL to get a few more innings under his belt. He has had mixed results thus far, going 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 1 save through his first 3 appearances. Rollins has fanned 4 and walked 1 in 4 innings of work.

David Rollins struggled mightily this past season with Seattle, and it will take a great spring for him to break camp in the Mariners’ bullpen. He allowed far too many baserunners in 2015, as his 1.800 WHIP illustrates. I expect Rollins to begin next year with Tacoma.

Next: Tyler O'Neill is Powerful

Jul 16, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; The Canadian dugout reacts as Canada left fielder Tyler O Neill (13) hits a solo home run in the fifth inning against Puerto Rico during the 2015 Pan Am Games at Ajax Pan Am Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Tyler O’Neill – RF

The Maple Ridge, BC native is off to a solid start this fall with Peoria. Despite being one of the younger players in the league, Tyler O’Neill is hitting .261 with 2 doubles, 2 home runs and 4 RBI through 6 games. O’Neill sports a .292 on base percentage and is slugging a whopping .609 across 23 at bats.

O’Neill broke out in a huge way this year with the Bakersfield Blaze. The 20-year-old hit .260 with 32 home runs and 87 RBI in 106 games. O’Neill’s 32 long balls were the highest tally at any level of the minor leagues in 2015. He could have easily hit 40 had he not missed a couple of weeks competing at the Pan Am Games.

MLB.com lists Tyler O’Neill as the Mariners’ sixth best prospect. This seems a bit low to me, and I expect him to climb those rankings in the coming years. Hopefully, Jerry Dipoto and his staff will take their time developing O’Neill. He has special power, and it will be fun to see what O’Neill can do in 2016.

Next: Ryan Horstman

Aug 24, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; General view of Safeco Field before a game between the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Horstman – LHP

Ryan Horstman is likely the least recognizable name in this slideshow, but he has done a nice job so far in Arizona. The 23-year-old southpaw has hurled 4 shutout frames for the Javelins while striking out 1 and walking 2. Horstman is one of only three Peoria pitchers who have yet to allow a run this year.

The Mariners selected Horstman out of St. John’s University in the 4th round of the 2013 draft. Injuries have limited him to just 16 career appearances in the minor leagues. However, Horstman has been dominant when healthy, going 3-0 and registering a 0.40 ERA though 22.1 innings.

Next: Mariners 2016 Coaching Staff Taking Shape

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