Mariners Analysis: Who’s Hot and Who’s Not

Jun 28, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels celebrate with third baseman Kyle Kubitza (18) and right fielder Kole Calhoun (56) after winning in the tenth inning off a wild pitch by Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Tom Wilhelmsen (54) at Angel Stadium of Anaheim.Angels won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another week of the Mariners Market, and another week of complete let downs from the Mariners. This week once again was a major disappointment, and has me thinking about my upcoming fantasy football team that I’ll be drafting in two months, instead of getting excited for some second half baseball. If you’re like me, your patience has run quite thin and you’re in utter amazement at how wrong this season has gone.

The Mariners frustrating season continues, and this week was nothing short of, wait for it, terrible. I really am sorry I sound like a broken record each and every week, but, to be fair to me, this team has been a broken record for years and years now. No offense, losing mentality, and out of it before the All Star break. The M’s started this week with a daunting task, and it didn’t help that King Felix was dethroned. The only good real positive out of this week was Mike Montgomery, when he hurled a complete game shut out against the Kansas City Royals. But the M’s lost that series, and lost the series against the Angels this weekend, to fall to 2-4 on the week. The M’s now find themselves a full 9 games back of the Houston Astros, and 7.5 games off the pace in the Wild Card.

That being said, the Mariners Market is all about individual performances, and in this slideshow I will look into who’s been hot for the Mariners in the past week, and who has not.

Before I get going I want to put a disclaimer, as I decided to go with some new names who might have been a little less deserving in the “Stock Up” category. I chose this because Taijuan Walker and Mike Montgomery have been staples in my Mariners’ market, and to try and give some new content and spice it up a little bit, I left them off it this week, although they both are very deserving. But without further ado, let’s get to it.

Next: Stock Up: Mike Zunino

Jun 24, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager (15) reacts after a double play to end the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Stock Down: Kyle Seager

I know he hit the game tying homerun with two outs in the ninth, and that was absolutely huge at the time, but the Mariners’ third baseman has followed up his All Star year in 2014 with a semi disappointing one so far. On the year he is hitting .262, which is right on with his average for his career. But, for a young player you want to see constant improvement from year to year, and so far this year you are seeing a regression at the plate. This past week, no signs of life were spotted.

Over the last 7 days, Kyle has gone 4-for-24 (.167) with a home run and an RBI. That lone RBI being himself from his home run. It is so incredibly frustrating to see guys like Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano struggle, because with Nelson Cruz right there in the middle of them both, you think they’d be loose and relaxed, and play better than before. But it just hasn’t turned out to be the case, and it’s incredibly frustrating to watch. I don’t want to be too tough on Kyle though, as he is second on the team in batting average behind Cruz.

Next: Stock Up: Fernando Rodney

June 26, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Fernando Rodney (56) celebrates the 3-1 victory against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Stock Up: Fernando Rodney

I’m shocked to be typing this, as I thought we’d seen the end of him once his closer role got taken away. But he’s bounced back nicely for the M’s, and in doing so he makes the bullpen a heck of a lot tougher. In the past week Fernando has pitched three innings, striking out three, and allowing zero runs in the process. He looks to be back to the form he was in when he was one of the most dominant closer in the league last year, and that is big time.

It may seem like a moot point, but Fernando pitching like he has shown himself being capable of, is big for the M’s success going forward. It allows for the Mariners to have two big guys at the back of that bullpen, two guys that you know can close it out and get you a close victory. If a pitcher pitches six strong innings and the M’s have the lead, hypothetically you should be good to go from there. Minus today’s game against the Angels of course, but you’ll always have those outliers. Between Joe Beimel, Charlie Furbush, and Mark Lowe, you should be able to piece together 3 outs. Then you can turn it over to Carson Smith in the eighth, and have Rodney close it out. It’s a recipe for success, but for the Mariners, it’s all about getting there.

Next: Stock Down: Roenis Elias

Jun 24, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Roenis Elias (29, right) walks back to the dugout after being relieved for during the fourth inning against the Kansas City Royalsat Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Stock Down: Roenis Elias

Roenis Elias, my oh my am I disappointed in you. I carried your torch, touted you as a great pitcher, and even put you in the stock up section multiple times early on. I even said at this rate, you’d be the one staying up and Taijuan Walker would be on his way down after his performances. Whoops. Roenis Elias has been absolutely abysmal, losing all command of anything not thrown hard and flat. And Taijuan Walker has been an absolute beast.

Roenis is just flat out struggling with his off-speed pitches, and his numbers over the past week reflect that. Over the last 7 days he went 3.2 innings pitched, allowing five hits while giving up seven runs, adding up to an ugly 17.18 ERA. In his past four starts, he’s seen his ERA on the season balloon from a 2.79 to a 4.25. June hasn’t been a nice month for the Cuban, and no one on this team will be happier to see the calendar turn from June to July than Roenis Elias.

Next: Stock Up: Franklin Gutierrez

Jun 28, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Seattle Mariners center fielder Franklin Gutierrez (30) crosses the plate to score a run in the fourth inning of the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Stock Up: Franklin Gutierrez

I’ve been crying and pleading for this move to be made, and I was super excited that it finally happened, and Guti hasn’t disappointed. He started his first game after being called up, and went 1-for-3 with an RBI. In his second game, he went 1-for-3 with a run scored. The craziest part to me is that I feel like Lloyd McClendon and co aren’t even using him to his upmost potential.

So far, the M’s manager is using him as a platoon OF against left handed starting pitchers. Against righties, Lloyd is opting to go with Dustin Ackley. But a closer look at his numbers would suggest that it might be wise to give Guti a look against RHP as well. In the minor leagues, he was hitting a scorching .336 vs righties, compared to just .279 against lefties. This lineup looks so much more formidable and balanced with Guti in the lineup, giving you two gap to gap hitters at the top, for Cano, Cruz, Seager, and Trumbo to clean up. Dustin Ackley hasn’t proved that he is the answer in left field, and I think it’s time to give Guti the reins.

Next: Stock Down: M's Playoff Chances

Jun 2, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon (23) kicks dirt after being ejected during the third inning against the New York Yankees at Safeco Field. Third base umpire Tony Randazzo (11) stands at right. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Stock Down: M’s Playoff Chances

I could’ve gone with many candidates here, Robinson Cano, Tom Wilhelmsen, Mark Trumbo, J.A. Happ, but you’ve all seen those names in weeks past, and to be completely honest, nothing has changed since then. They all have been, well, terrible. And plus, I figured Sunday’s game against the Angels didn’t have you down enough, so I thought I’d go ahead and pile it on.

The M’s sit nine games back, and there are no signs from this team that they can turn it around. They sit 7 ½ back in the wildcard, which is just about as daunting as actually winning the division. They’d have to jump six teams to even make it into the second wildcard spot, so excuse me if I don’t seem overly optimistic with those chances. MLB.com gives the Mariners’ just an 11% chance of making the playoffs, and I think that is being generous.

If all else were equal, and the second wildcard spot would demand an 88-74 record like it did last year, then the M’s will have to finish out the year 54-32, which equates to a winning percentage of .593. Anyone seeing the Mariners’ winning approximately six out of ten the rest of the way, because if so Tweet it now so you can screen shot it and say you called it, because that isn’t happening. Unless this team can go all 1995 Seattle Mariners and win 25 of their final 36 games, it looks like the only tickets you’ll be finding coming October in Seattle, are tickets to watch the Seahawks.

Next: Stock Trader: Hisashi Iwakuma

Jun 23, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma (18) talks in the dugout before a game against the Kansas City Royals at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Stock Trader: Watch for Hisashi Iwakuma

Well, this is an absolute bummer, as when I first came on to SoDo Mojo, I thought this would be a ton of fun around trade deadline, as we could all get creative on moves we thought that could possibly put the M’s over the top.

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Instead, we find ourselves as sellers, again. If Hisashi Iwakuma can come back and get healthy, you’ll hear a ton of rumors around the trade deadline. The right-hander is 34 years old, and the M’s have seen this year that they have plenty of capable starters waiting in the wings. He’s in the last year of his contract, and the M’s probably won’t make a hard push to resign him next year anyways. So he is the perfect trade candidate, as almost every year there is a contender (Blue Jays this year maybe?) that needs one more starting pitcher, and Iwakuma fits the bill.

With the M’s looking like sellers more and more with each passing day, you’ll want to keep your eye on Iwakuma. If he can come back and pitch well, his stock will go way up, and the M’s could get a nice hitting prospect from some contender around the trade deadline out of it. It’s too early to speculate on who it might be, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to find out that Iwakuma’s days as a Mariner are numbered.

Next: Mariners Ruin Felix Day, Save It, Ruin It Again

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