Robinson Cano and his Rough 2015 Season

Jun 14, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) looks on between plays during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Robinson Cano is without a doubt the Seattle Mariners’ most valuable player, and no I don’t mean that as in he should get a trophy and be deemed the M’s best player this year. What I mean by that is that in order for the Mariners’ to be the ball club we all thought they were going to be, he’s going to have to produce like we thought he would.

When Robinson Cano gets hot, so do the Mariners’, and when he is cold, so are the Mariners’. The career .307 hitter is hitting a disappointing .245 so far this year, and just hasn’t been able to piece it together. So I dove deep into the stats, and tried to see if I could put my finger on what is wrong with Robby. Here are four things that I think summarize Robbie’s issues at the dish.

Next: Timid Approach at the Plate

Jun 5, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) reacts to grounding out with the bases loaded to end the seventh inning while Tampa Bay Rays catcher Bobby Wilson (46) looks on at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Decline in Hitting to All Fields:

You’ll have to forgive me because I can’t watch the Mariners’ as much as I would like living in Texas, but when I was in Houston I was absolutely shocked to see the extreme shift the Astros put on with Robby Cano. I’ve come to find that this is a common occurrence, and I was absolutely shocked. When I think of Robinson Cano, I think of a professional hitter who can hit to all fields, and hit to all fields with power. But, a recent look at his spray charts, and an alarming trend can be spotted.

Looking at Robinson Cano’s spray chart from Frangraphs that showcases all his hits from 2014 (the one on the left) and then 2015 (the one on the right) it becomes apparent to me why the shift was on. In 2014, Cano showed the ability to hit for average to all fields. You don’t see any tendencies (meaning he hits the ball in the same area/spot), and he was able to shoot balls into gaps anywhere he desired. But this year, you are seeing him time and time again rolling over with his right hand, causing those week groundouts to the right side.

Is he a complete pull hitter like a David Ortiz or someone like that? Absolutely not, as you can still see some ability for him to take it the other way in his spray chat. But, his pull percentage so far this year (meaning the percentage of balls that he hits into right field) is at 38.9%, which is just slightly above his 37.5% career average. What is alarming though is that his opposite field percentage is at a horrendous 19.9%, a career low for him and well below his career average of 26.7%.

Cano needs to find a way to use the opposite field to his advantage again, as it will keep teams from playing him to pull, and allow some of those balls that he hits into the shift, to find holes and go in for base hits.

Next: Lack of Plate Coverage

May 8, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) hits an RBI double to tie the score at 3-3 against the Oakland Athletics in the seventh inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Lack of Plate Coverage:

This goes right along with his spray chart that I just touched on, as the spray chart is the byproduct of his lack of plate coverage. For those who don’t know what I mean or why plate coverage is important, let me explain. Plate coverage is vital to being a good hitter, because if you’re able to cover the whole plate, you become a much tougher hitter to pitch to. For example, if a hitter is only able to “cover” the inside part of the plate, then opposing teams will pitch this hitter away in order to routinely get him out. But, Cano has always been an exceptional hitter, and has never had a place in the strike zone to attack him. So I went to Fangraphs again to see if this still holds true, and what I found was rather disheartening.

Above is a comparison between Robinson Cano’s 2014 heatmap (on the top) and his 2015 heatmap (on the bottom), showcasing his AVG/P. For those who don’t know, AVG/P is a statistic that keeps track of their average on all pitches, no matter if the batter takes the pitch, or if he swings and puts it in play. I personally am a huge fan of this statistic, because it shows what pitches hitters are taking or missing and which pitches in which part of the zone they are going after and hitting.

So while analyzing Robinson Cano’s AVG/P from last year to this year, it looks to be very apparent that his plate coverage has gone way down. In 2014, he was hot in all areas of the srikezone, and unless you can hit your spot up and away, he was probably going to make you pay. This year though, he has many more “holes” in his swing, especially as you move away from the left handed hitting Cano. Because of this lack of plate discipline on pitches away from him, it backs up his spray chat and proves that what I thought isn’t a fluke. Cano is having trouble with the outside part of the plate, and he is finally giving pitchers a place to attack him.

Next: Slump or Decline

Jun 5, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) spits after grounding out to end the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Slump or A Decline?

Robinson Cano is a professional hitter, and at 32-years-old, you would like to think that the second baseman still has better days ahead. But with some of the things that I have seen, I am not sold that this is just a “slump”. I know he’s been hitting .304 in his past seven games. While that is certainly good to see, all of his hits in this Astros series have been to the pull side. And because of that I think he has a real problem here, as he isn’t able to extend his hands and take the ball the other way.

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What is even more confusing is the fact that pitchers aren’t pitching him any differently than they did last year. Last year, he got a fastball 62.8% of the time, and an off-speed pitch the other 37.2% of the time. This year, he is getting a fastball a little less at 61.6% of the time, and an off-speed pitch 38.4% of the time. What this tells me is that pitchers aren’t really attacking him with anything different, or something that he didn’t see last year. So that means that you can solely pin these struggles on Cano and his swing, and the “holes” in his swing that are emerging as I touched on in this article.

I’m still not ready to deem this the start of a major decline, but I think that in order for Cano to turn it around, he’s going to have to find his inside out swing and shoot some balls the other way. When Cano starts taking pitches the other way and hitting them with power to left field, that’s when I think you’ll really start to see Cano go on a tear. If he can do that, and get himself going, then lookout, because this team could be something special.

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