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A lot of time during the off-season and Spring Training is spent creating projections for each players coming season. It’s a useful exercise, and allows us to get a reasonable understanding of what we can expect from each player going forward. But I think it is also useful to take a look at the team as a whole to get a sense for how it might fare.
So today’s piece is all about what we might be looking forward to from the Mariners broken down by position and comparing it to the production we saw last year. All projections are a mixture of those pulled from Fangraphs.com and from the playing time estimates given at RosterResource.com. Let’s get started.
Catcher:
Improvement. In nearly every stat category you care to mention, 2015 looks to be a step forward for the M’s at catcher. .219/.271/.369 and 2.4 WAR (2014: .203/.255/.369 and 1.7 WAR)
First Base:
Improvement is good. We like improvement. So how about we continue the trend for the M’s at first base? Again it looks like across the board improvements could be in store. .245/.315/.406 and 1.3 WAR (2014: .236/.298/.406 and 1.3 WAR
Second Base:
The projections aren’t quite so bullish on the projections at second it seems. With moderate decreases in the triple slash save for a bump in power. But the overall outlook in terms of Wins still looks rosy. .292/.356/.446 and 5.1 WAR (2014: .301/.368/.433 and 5.2 WAR)
Sep 4, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager (15) throws to first base in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Third Base:
I have to admit that this one took me by surprise. The projections see a definite decrease in production for the M’s at third in 2015. .261/.325/.422 and 4.1 WAR (2014: .268/.334/.454 and 5.4 WAR)
Shortstop:
It looks like the M’s are looking at some improvement in the hitting department at short, but with no real change in overall value from last year. .252/.311/.367 and 3 WAR (2014: .239/.295/.344 and 3.1 WAR)
Left Field:
Pretty much the same situation in Left as we saw at short. A small gain in on base percentage, but overall much the same as last year. .244/.312/.378 and 1.9 WAR (2014: .246/.295/.389 and 1.9 WAR)
Center Field:
The projections are much rosier for the M’s in Center Field for 2015, and we look to see a big boost in overall production from last year. .249/.312/.366 and 2.3 WAR (2014: .234/.269/.290 and -0.8 WAR)
Right Field:
Additions in the offseason look to improve things in Right Field as well. .246/.319/.396 and 1.7 WAR (2014: .246/.299/.368 and 0.3 WAR)
Designated Hitter:
The DH position has been a weak one for the M’s since Edgar Martinez hung up his bat. But this year, things are looking up, and a definite improvement from last year. .248/.310/.443 and 1.5 WAR (2014: .206/.276/.335 and -2.1 WAR)
And that’s the position players. Comparing the WAR totals (a quick and dirty method) we see that the M’s got 15.4 WAR last year. This year’s projections have them at 23.3 WAR, an improvement of 7.9 WAR over last year. Mike Trout was a 8.0 WAR player for the Angels in 2014. So the improvement is nothing to sneeze at.
What about our Starters and Relievers? Let’s see.
Starters:
Some different faces will take the mound for the M’s this year, and the overall profile is one we should be quite happy with. K/9: 7.9 BB/9: 2.7 HR/9: 0.9 ERA: 3.62 WAR: 12.4 (2014: K/9: 7.7 BB/9: 2.7 HR/9: 1.0 ERA: 3.48 WAR: 11.0)
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Relievers:
The M’s Bullpen was pretty good last year, and the projections have us losing a bit of ground this year. K/9: 8.7 BB/9: 3.4 HR/9: 0.9 ERA: 3.55 WAR: 1.7 (2014: K/9: 9.1 BB/9: 3.1 HR/9: 0.7 ERA: 2.60 WAR: 4.2)
So some advances from our Starters and some regression from our Relievers in 2015.
So what does all this add up to? Well, if you look at just the Projected WAR compared to last year we see a 6.8 WAR improvement. And if you’ll cast your memories back to the end of the M’s season last year, you might remember that it all came down to one game. There’s reason to be optimistic this year, and maybe that one game will swing in our favor.
Next: Mariners Spring Training Review