Seattle Mariners Opening Day Roster: Sodo Mojo Predictions

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Sep 27, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners center fielder Austin Jackson (16, obscured) is congratulated by teammates after hitting an RBI-fielders choice against the Los Angeles Angels for a 2-1 Mariners victory during the eleventh inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

How many question marks are there on the Seattle Mariners’ Opening Day roster? Pitchers and catchers reports on February 20th to Peoria, Arizona for the start of Spring Training. Will the month in the sun bring surprises to the 25-man roster? Or will the Mariners– barring injuries of course– go chalk and pick the boring, obvious choices for Opening Day?

Before predicting the roster by infield (plus catcher), outfield (plus DH), starting rotation, bullpen, and bench, I want to preface it with a few things: 1. It’s still almost 2 months until Opening Day, so lots of things could change with injuries and any late trades or signings; 2. Predictions always find a way to be imperfect: remember when people picked the Boston Red Sox and the Washington Nationals to play in the 2014 World Series? Me too.

And though the Mariners don’t necessarily have too many question marks at starting spots, depth could become an issue if injuries pileup, especially in the rotation where the Mariners look to rely on a younger staff.

The most hotly contested starting spot will be shortstop. Then after that it comes down to who gets the nod in right field Opening Day, and who starts the season as the backup catcher. Finally, with all the depth and youth in the bullpen, there are a lot of moving parts that will take a good portion of Spring Training to sort out.

And so we begin with the Seattle Mariners Opening Day infield…

Sep 28, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) hits against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Infield (plus Catcher):

First Base:

Logan Morrison. In a post yesterday I gave my production predictions for LoMo, whom I expect to excel in 2015 with the starting first base job his to lose from day 1. 18 home runs and 73 RBI from the 5th year player out of Northshore High School in Louisiana.

The spot is his because he hit over .340 in the month of September and carried an offense with struggling stars in Robbie Cano and Seager. With time in defensively at Spring Training, LoMo will find his groove and solidify first base in 2015, a merry-go-round position in 2014 that was marginally productive.

Second Base:

Drum roll please!… Robinson Cano. Whoa, a shocking selection I know. He’s a 6-time All Star and career .310 hitter. His defense is solid at second, making tough plays look easy throwing to first base with a quick flick of the wrist.

Unless Cano gets hurt in Spring Training there’s not a chance in hell he loses this spot. Even if he went 1-for-50 in Peoria, the Mariners know his pedigree and are confident he will produce in year 2 of his $240 million contract.

Third Base:

Aug 18, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman

Kyle Seager

(15) fields a ball and throws for an out during the fourth inning of a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Seager. Again, no great surprise here. The 27-year old out of UNC is under contract with the Mariners through 2021 with his recently signed 7 year, $100 million contract extension. In each of his first three MLB seasons, Seager has markedly improved year after year.

So what does that mean for 2015? More than 20 home runs, more than 100 RBI, and no late-season slump, keeping his batting average over .275.

Again, barring injury, Seager isn’t going anywhere. Yes, Patrick Kivelhan and D.J. Peterson are listed as third basemen in the Mariners minor league system, but they’re young and inexperienced and won’t take the starting job away from an All-Star.

Shortstop:

For the second Spring Training in a row there will be a shortstop competition. And, for the second year in a row, Brad Miller will take home gold. Miller struggled out of the gate last season as the starter, and was eventually replaced by Chris Taylor midseason. But post-All Star break the left-handed hitter turned it on and made this competition a lot more interesting.

More than anything else, I think the Mariners want Miller’s power bat in the lineup. Before the M’s traded for the Smith/Ruggiano combo in right field, speculation swirled about potentially moving Miller to the outfield.

In the long run Crazy Legs could become a Ben Zobrist-type super utility guy, but in 2015, expect him to start over Chris Taylor at shortstop on Opening Day.

Catcher:

It’s no great surprise that Mike Zunino will be the Mariners’ starting catcher in 2015. His backup, however, is a different story. More on that in a bit. In his first full MLB season, Zunino struggled with bat speed and contact at the plate. He hit just .199 on the season with 158 strikeouts. His redeeming offensive quality was his power, as he set the Mariners record for most home runs by a catcher with 22.

Zunino had so little time transitioning from college to the minors then to the MLB. With more reps in Spring Training, and more exposure to Major League pitching, Zunino’s bat will improve. Not to mention his phenomenal pitch-framing and game-calling behind the dish.

Look out this season: if Zunino finds a stride offensively, the Mariners offense becomes that much scarier.

Aug 31, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners left fielder Dustin Ackley (13) hits a three-run homer against the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Outfield (plus DH):

Designated Hitter:

Nelson Cruz. The Mariners signed the 33-year old Dominican slugger to a four-year, $68 million contract this offseason to be their primary designated hitter. A slugger in the purest form, Cruz’s career slugging percentage is .501, and he averages 33 home runs per 162 games.

The Mariners paid this guy big bucks to be the powerful right-handed hitter smooshed between Cano and Seager in their lineup. Even though he is on the wrong side of 30, he hit an AL-best 40 home runs in 2014. In my 2015 prediction for Cruz, I pegged him for 30 home runs and 88 RBI to go with a .258 batting average.

With those sort of numbers, it’s no shocked he’ll be the Opening Day DH, and it’s no surprise the Mariners paid the man in free agency.

Left Field:

Dustin Ackley. The Mariners have made upgrades up and down their roster this offseason, though none of those additions seem destined or prepared to play left field. Much like the beginning of Spring Training in 2014, manager Lloyd McClendon is declaring the starting spot Ackley’s, letting his confident and focus grow exponentially.

Ackley has had little stability since being drafted 2nd overall in the 2011 draft. He was a first baseman in college, drafted as an outfielder, immediately moved to second base in the minors, was replaced by Nick Franklin at second base and moved to center field, moved to left field, and finally in 2014 was given just the one position to focus on.

If Ackley can hit like he did in the 2nd halves of the last two seasons for the entire 2015 season, the Mariners will have a very productive left fielder who also carries a great glove. Barring injury or some bizarre decision to trade for Alex Gordon (that’s a joke), Dustin Ackley will start in left field for the Mariners.

Centerfield:

Austin Jackson. McClendon has thrown his confidence behind a 2015 resurgence for the 28-year old centerfielder. His .256/.308/.347 triple slash in 2014 was by far the worst of his career. Jackson’s defense is stellar in centerfield, and McClendon worked with him when he was the hitting coach in Detroit, so he knows Jackson’s capabilities.

Even with the 2014 slump, there’s no legitimate threat on the roster to take Jackson’s spot. James Jones could in theory, with his unreal speed both in the field and on the basepaths. But his lack of power and a poor contact rate could necessitate more time in the minor leagues.

Also something else to remember: 2015 is Austin Jackson‘s contract season, so expect even better numbers because that’ just what MLB players do when their next paycheck isn’t guaranteed.

Right Field:

Seth Smith. Not to be confused with Sam Smith. Seth was picked up in a trade with the San Diego Padres this offseason. With a very cost controlled, team-friendly contract ($6 million in 2015, 6.75 in 2016, and a 7 million team option in 2017) Smith has the opportunity to be one of the most valuable members of the Mariners roster.

Yes, the Mariners also traded for right fielder Justin Ruggiano, but Smith’s history of consistent hitting, especially against righties, has him winning the starting job. The two will likely platoon in right field, with Justin Ruggiano also spelling Ackley in left from time to time when the lineup needs more right-handed bats.

Smith has a career .347 OBP, so don’t be surprised when McClendon throws him in the 2-hole ahead of Cano in the lineup. Deeper now from top to bottom, the Mariners lineup will be more potent and powerful than it has been in quite some time.

Here’s how the positional starters will shake out:

Sep 27, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners center fielder Austin Jackson (16) reacts after striking out to end the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Austin Jackson 8

Seth Smith 9

Robinson Cano 4

Nelson Cruz DH

Kyle Seager 5

Logan Morrison 3

Mike Zunino 2

Dustin Ackley 7

Brad Miller 6

Looking at this potential Mariners lineup, one can’t not be excited (aka you should be excited). The middle of the order is potent, the top of the order is dependable (if Jackson gets back in his groove). And the bottom of the lineup has power potential and some serious upside.

Ackley could find his way into the 2-hole as the season progresses, and Zunino could leapfrog LoMo to provide a better lefty-righty balance in the middle of the order.

Either way, the Mariners have a shot at being one of the better offensive teams in 2015.

Not to mention what should be another stellar year from the Mariners’ pitching staff…

Sep 28, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Fans watch as Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) pitches to the Los Angeles Angels during the third inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The Starting Rotation:

Unless someone gets hurt or miserably underperforms, I would argue the Mariners rotation is already set for 2015. It’ll be deep, with a 6 and a 7 in the rotation capable of effectively spot starting. It’ll be devastating. And it has young pitchers with serious upside.

Here are the starting 5:

1. Felix Hernandez

2. James Paxton

Sep 8, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) talks with catcher Mike Zunino (3) during the sixth inning of a 4-1 Mariners victory against the Houston Astros at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

3. Hisashi Iwakuma

4. J.A. Happ

5. Taijuan Walker

Let’s break it down generally then look at the specific spots.

First, Paxton will be the #2 over Iwakuma, and Happ will be the #4 over Walker to split up the lefties in the rotation. This way the Mariners will be starting a left-handed pitcher in every single three-game series they play. This forces the opposing manager to finagle his lineup, and at the same time opens up the possibilities for matchup advantages in every series.

Then, Taijuan Walker wins the #5 spot over Roenis Elias because he is going to come out firing in Spring Training. And because I don’t think the Mariners want to carry a rotation with 3 left-handed pitchers.

Felix is #1. I don’t have anything else to say about that.

Paxton has had one of the most prolific starts to a pitching career, boasting a 9-4 record with a 2.66 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts in 98.0 innings pitched. His 36 walks are too high, but his mere 5 home runs allowed are seriously encouraging. With a full Spring Training without injury, Paxton will be locked in for 2015.

‘Kuma has been great to start the last two seasons, but has faded hard down the stretch. He will be solid for the Mariners as their #3, but I wonder if he becomes a trade deadline seller who goes elsewhere for positional depth or to replace an injured starter. Either way, ‘Kuma deals when he’s healthy and not fatigued, and should be one of the best #3s in the MLB to start the season.

The Bullpen:

The Mariners’ closer will be Fernando Rodney, letting his arrows loose after every save. Beyond him, the question becomes whether the Mariners carry a 7-man or 8-man rotation. For the sake of starting pitcher preservation and matchups, I would expect McClendon to start the season with an 8-man ‘Pen and eventually work it back to 7.

Those 7 will be:

Sep 25, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher

Fernando Rodney

(56) gestures in celebration after the final out as the Mariners defeat Toronto Blue Jays 7-5 at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Rodney RHP

Danny Farquhar RHP

Tom Wilhelmsen RHP

Dominic Leone RHP

Yoervis Medina RHP

Charlie Furbush LHP

David Rollins LHP

If the Mariners go an 8th, I would expect it to be Roenis Elias as a long reliever, or potentially the young stud Carson Smith. Carson Smith will find his way into the bullpen one way or another, but with his youth and minor league options, McClendon won’t be pressed to force him into the ‘Pen.

If the Mariners so choose to re-sign Joe Beimel— which I think they should– then he would likely take Rollins’ lefty spot in the bullpen.

It’s so difficult trying to whittle down the bullpen, though, as each name you read on the depth chart has the potential to shut opposing hitters down.

Just like last season, the Mariners relief corps will be deep and deadly, and McClendon won’t hesitate to go to the squad in left field when the game is tight.

Jul 22, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners shortstop Willie Bloomquist (8) scores a run off a RBI double hit by Seattle Mariners left fielder Dustin Ackley (not pictured) during the fifth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The Bench:

For the sake of this post, let’s say the Mariners go with a 7-man bullpen to start the season. That would mean 12 total pitchers, and 9 starting position players, for a grand total of 21.

So which 4 Mariners will be posting up on the bench, providing versatility and depth throughout the season?

The first and most important is the backup catcher. As Dan explored in a recent post, the Mariners have a lot of options for the backup backstop.

Feb 20, 2014; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher

John Hicks

(67) poses for a picture during photo day at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Helikes John Hicks, who split time between Double-A Jackson and Triple-A Tacoma in 2014 with a slash of .290/.351/.403 with five homers and 47 RBI in 53 games. Then in 13 games in the AFL, Hicks slashed .304/.396/.522 with a couple of homers and 11 RBI. Though Hicks is young and inexperienced, I think the combo of him and Zunino behind the dish would be the best setup for the Mariners, as they are both learning and staying fresh and both carry the most upside of all the catchers on the roster.

So that’s 22.

The 23rd man will be Justin Ruggiano, who is platooning in right most likely with Seth Smith.

The 24th will be Willie Bloomquist, if he’s heathy. Because a healthy Willie ballgame can back up pretty much everywhere except centerfield and catcher.

So who gets that 25th spot? For me, it’s between a backup outfielder and Jesus Montero. If Taylor loses the starting job to Brad Miller and Bloomquist is healthy, I think he stays in Triple-A Tacoma.

The Mariners could carry only 4 outfielders on the roster, as Ruggiano has played almost half of his MLB games in centerfield and Nelson Cruz can play in left.

When Montero comes out swinging with his new, slim frame at Spring Training, he fights to earn a spot. But, ultimately, I think the Mariners highly value defense and speed, and if James Jones improves at the plate, he will be the 25th man on the roster.

Now for the final summary of the Seattle Mariners 25-man Opening Day roster…

The Complete Roster:

Catcher: Mike Zunino

First Base: Logan Morrison

Second Base: Robinson Cano

Third Base: Kyle Seager

Shortstop: Brad Miller

DH: Nelson Cruz

Left Field: Dustin Ackley

Centerfield: Austin Jackson

Right Field: Seth Smith

Backups: John Hicks (C), Willie Bloomquist (INF/OF), Justin Ruggiano (OF), James Jones (OF).

Rotation: Felix Hernandez, James Paxton, Hisashi Iwakuma, J.A. Happ, Taijuan Walker.

Bullpen: Fernando Rodney, Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen, Dominic Leone, Yoervis Medina (RHPs); Charlie Furbush, David Rollins (LHPs).

So there’s your 2015, way-too-early, 25-man roster for the Seattle Mariners. What do you think? Will there be some unforeseen surprises at Spring Training that shake up the roster?

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