Max Scherzer is not worth the money


Yesterday, Dan said that the Mariners should throw the bank at Max Scherzer to get him to wear teal next year.

He mentioned that the M’s have the payroll to throw some big numbers his way, and while this may be the case, he is not worth the money.

Scherzer is looking for a multi-year, nearly $30 million per year deal, which, while he might be worth that much money, is not what the Mariners need to be spending their money on for the length of that contract. Supporting that kind of deal, along with everybody else they picked up, every year is easier said then done.

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While having Felix Hernandez and Scherzer on the mound together until (at least) Felix’s current contract expires looks good statistically, it isn’t entirely practical.

We’re going to have to assume that Scherzer is going to have trouble adjusting to Safeco Field as well, which is a common theme among new players in Seattle (see Austin Jackson).

By that token, we’re going to have to assume that Nelson Cruz is going to have a down year from last year, which means less run support than we might be expecting from him.

Continuing that train of thought, if the Mariners throw all this money at Scherzer, they are going to have a roster that’s very similarly built to last year’s squad that, guess what, fell short of the playoffs last year: Great pitching, less than desirable hitting.

Yes, the Mariners picked up some pieces that theoretically will add to the offensive production, but we won’t know how much they will accomplish in Safeco until the season starts. On top of that, Dustin Ackley has been hit-or-miss at the plate, and so has Brad Miller. Chris Taylor needs a bigger sample size before we pass judgement on him.

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Dan brought up in his article yesterday that Scherzer has a 3.04 ERA in Safeco Field over four starts, but he forgot that those numbers were AGAINST the Mariners, who were really only competitive in 2014. His one start at Safeco this year resulted in a loss in 6.2 innings and a 5.40 ERA.

There’s no way the numbers Dan brought up would hold against an Angels team that is looking at having another good year, a Rangers squad that, for all intents and purposes had an off year last year, and a Astros team that has been steadily improving and could be somewhat competitive next year. Who knows what Billy Beane is doing down in Oakland, but he hasn’t given me reason to doubt him over the past couple of years.

Is Scherzer worth the kind of contract he’s asking for? Perhaps for any other team, but not the Mariners.